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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Tuesday Hoops
nropp11
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#1
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:37:12 PM
13-7, +4.10


Two spots of interest for me tonight and both games focus on the same spot. Both Cleveland and the Lakers are on a streak of six straight losses in terms of covering the #. At first glance I do like the Cavs. They have had three days off and the focal point would be the fact that the Spurs have given up some high point totals on the road this year. Don’t think I have the stomach to back the Cavs though against a red-hot spurs team who has covered four in a row, and won their last seven straight up, and they’ve also had the three day period to get ready for this one. More importantly, Cleveland’s got a pretty big spot on deck with an immediate revenge spot with Milwaukee, a game they lost at home by 37 points. A bit hopeful that the streak continues and goes to a seventh game here and catch double digits in a revenge spot tomorrow (that sounds scary enough to cross it off right away). The other game I’m going to focus on is the Lakers. They too have failed to cover the # the last six games out. They’re 4-2 in those games straight up, so it’s not like they’re playing all that bad of basketball, and they were a favorite in the two losses, so might be some value here tonight. Their last game out two days ago, they put up a pretty impressive PPP total on the Warriors in an average paced game. While it’s a good spot for the LAL offense to carry the momentum over into today’s game, I’m not sure it’s the best of spots for a Nets team on the West Coast. They came west after an impressive win over Indiana and just got done playing a b2b with the Warriors and Kings, two games they won in some pretty fast paced games (105 and 97 possessions). The key thing here is they barely went over the listed totals, so while they won the games, there wasn’t all that much impressive other than the fact that they were dogged. With that, I think there is some value on the Lakers tonight. As I said before, the Nets are sort of in a weird spot here. A four game roady with a few days off in between the two games. They’ve been on the west coast for 5 days now, and have had the three day break before this one tips off, so it might not be the best of performances. They’ve had a few similar situations as of late where this has occurred with a couple day break on a better than 3 game-roady. They lost at Cleveland by 16, they lost to the Clippers by 10, they beat Cleveland by 3, they beat Charlotte by 3, and they lost to the Heat by 30. Seems like a good spot to back the Lakers who bring a slightly slower pace to the table than what NJ has played thus far on the trip, and also bring in the best defensive efficiency the Nets have faced in about a month’s time. The # seems a bit high, but I think she holds value, and it should be a bit higher given the spot. In the last ten meetings between the two teams, the Lakers have covered this # alone in 9 of the 40 quarters played, probably doesn’t mean much, just a weird stat. I like the Lakers tonight.

3* LA Lakers -9

GL
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#2
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:39:36 PM
GL Bro    
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#3
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:43:57 PM
Does your pick take into consideration that Bynum is probably a no-go? 
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#4
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:44:18 PM
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dendogg55
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#5
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:45:24 PM
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#6
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:46:28 PM
im sure he took that into account did u read his writeup.. does he sound like a guy to miss somethin like that lol
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#7
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:46:41 PM
I don't know, I think this Nets team, which has lost six straight to Kobe, is fukn sik of that garbage and the little general Avery has instilled something in them of late to make them want to actually win 4 games in a row. i don't like the fact that the number has dropped from 10 to 9, but wtf i think that's still too many. gl
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nropp11
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#8
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:47:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jfields2:

Does your pick take into consideration that Bynum is probably a no-go? 

yah
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#9
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:49:27 PM
Appreciate the great write-ups and analysis nropp! Your work in college hoops is amazing I have learned a great deal from your handicapping keep it up bro
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#10
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:54:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:


yah

Hahaha.. I knew that was a stupid question as soon as I hit submit... Thanks!  BOL!!

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              Antilles
#11
Posted: 4/3/2012 3:56:38 PM

big factor you did not mention is that the spurs are playing Celts tomorrow night  cleveland -->plane to boston

cavs may even take a shot with the ML

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#12
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:05:10 PM
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#13
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:11:15 PM
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#14
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:17:27 PM
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#15
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:32:43 PM
Very good write-ups.Thanks for sharing but arent you a little worried about The Lakers defense as of late?I agree they play good defense at home, but in their latest home games, 3 out of 4 to be more precise, they allowed at least 102.I can understand giving up 100 against best offense like Oklahoma, but against Warriors and Grizzlies? Something is not functioning good in that departement.Lakers havent played such great defense lately, they looked quite relaxed and Nets can score.
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#16
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:41:54 PM
Not a snowball's chance in hell, this will be a close head to head matchup possibly the Nets to win. I'd take the Lakers ML or NJN +9 to cover on this game.

GL 
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#17
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:51:20 PM
 BOL tonight love to c you on NBA probably gonna tail this 1. 
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nropp11
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#18
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:05:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rapid_Giulesti:

Very good write-ups.Thanks for sharing but arent you a little worried about The Lakers defense as of late?I agree they play good defense at home, but in their latest home games, 3 out of 4 to be more precise, they allowed at least 102.I can understand giving up 100 against best offense like Oklahoma, but against Warriors and Grizzlies? Something is not functioning good in that departement.Lakers havent played such great defense lately, they looked quite relaxed and Nets can score.


I'm not sure this is a case of how well the Lakers defense is compared to how not so well the Nets offense is. You say they can score, but the only time they've gone north of 83 points on the road in the past month has come against Golden State, Sacramento, and Charlotte, three of the worst defensive teams in the league. In that same time period, they played at Atlanta (84), Orlando (70), Charlotte (83), Miami (78). In terms of how bad the Lakers defense has been, not really all that certain that I can agree. They just gave up 112 to Golden State, which seems like a high #, but when you realize the pace was extremely fast and the Warriors got up 90 shots, then the 112 doesn't seem all that out of the ordinary. They yielded 102 to OKC as well, but comparing that offense to the Nets is a bit of a stretch, and the fact that OKC only scored 102 in just 91 shots as the most efficient offense in the league is sort of a winning proposition, no? Where else have they looked bad? Gave up 101 to Golden State again, but yet they got up 91 shots. 

I guess what I'm trying to get at is if you look at the efficiencies, New Jersey's offense has looked good b/c they have recently played more games with high possession counts. They scored 111 in a 105 possession game. That's not good, that's pretty awful. And on the flip side, the Lakers giving up these large #'s is a bit misleading b/c of the pace their games have gone. This is why there is value here in my opinion. Neither one of these two teams want to play all that fast as both are right around that 92 possession mark. If they do play fast, then there might be a concern for a high offensive output from New Jersey here, but at the same time, they're almost dead last in the league in regards to defensive efficiency, and having Lopez out of the lineup isn't helping that as of late. Now add in the west coast days off, you might get a flat Nets team coming into the wrong spot against a Lakers team carrying in momentum from a high offensive output type situation.

Just my opinion, but you can't relate point totals directly to defense. If the Lakers go 85 possessions, and give up 100+ points, then yes, there is something wrong. But in these games where they're going 95, 96, 97+ possessions and giving up 100+, nothing really wrong with that. Same thing with the Nets. If they're going to play 105 possessions and score 111 on a terrible defense like Sacremento, then yah, I guess the offense is going to look pretty good. Now take away ten possessions, throw a good defense into the mix, and that's where I see the value.

GL
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nropp11
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#19
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:07:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by unirobber:

Not a snowball's chance in hell, this will be a close head to head matchup possibly the Nets to win. I'd take the Lakers ML or NJN +9 to cover on this game.

GL 

You gonna play the middle? 
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#20
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:22:41 PM
Yea, you have a point, havent looked from efficiency point of view.I myself already pulled the trigger on over, considering the late hot form of this two, but now i;m starting to worry cause indeed Nets played some crap teams and they also beat Indiana which was coming after beating Miami and teams tend to play crap after beating Miami, so indeed it seems you have a point with Nets offense, they looked good cause opponents were poor and cause of situational moment with Pacers.My only hope rely on D-Will maybe he will brings his A game tonightand maybe 3 pointer machine Morrow will continue to hammer down those beauties! wish you good luck, you really know your business and i shall track you more often, there is a lot to learn from you, my friend.
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#21
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:53:51 PM
Thanks for the detail write up. 
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#22
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:54:56 PM
 NROPP your perspective is GREATLY APPRECIATED! Best wishes to you always, thank you, god bless you
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#23
Posted: 4/3/2012 6:21:00 PM
thanks for posting my dude! !
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#24
Posted: 4/3/2012 6:27:50 PM
bol nropp 
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#25
Posted: 4/3/2012 6:58:58 PM
GL 
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