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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Can anyone double check this. Play hitting over 83% on 2nd half bets
realscififan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
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#1
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:48:02 PM

A friend showed me this and from the numbers I have researched it is accurate.

This is for 2nd half plays only!!!

If a team is covering the spread by 1 1/2 times for the game by halftime, bet the other side.

Sounds simple but here is the kicker.  Only bet it if the 2nd half spread still lets the winner cover by the original point spread.

Example:

Team A favored by 8 1/2 for the game.  At half time they are winning by 13.  If the 2nd half point spread was Team B favored by 4 or less then take Team B since the 4 would still make team A cover.

Yes if they cover by more then 4 then Team A would not cover, but the bet only concerns the spread and if the spread gives them the cover.

My numbers show this hitting 83.7 % for the NBA and last year hitting 79%

Can anyone check this out as well. 

 

 

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#2
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:51:49 PM

How many events?

It could hit 80% for 10 bets.

It couldn't hit 80% for 200 bets.

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#3
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:03:38 PM
is the inverse true?  does it apply to dogs covering in any way?
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#4
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:23:28 PM

4/2: 2-0, Utah and Houston

4/1: no play

3/31: 2-1, Memphis and Indiana Winners.  Utah Loser.

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realscififan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
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#5
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:24:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glenndef62:

How many events?

It could hit 80% for 10 bets.

It couldn't hit 80% for 200 bets.

I counted 127 events

 

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nuggetmonster
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#6
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:40:21 PM
Hmmmm this wont pan out for the good trust me...
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#7
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:56:08 PM

It fit last night's CBB championship game.  Kentucky was giving 6 1/2 and was leading by 14 at the half.  2H line was Kansas - 1 1/2.  Kansas covered the 2H line.  BOL. 

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#8
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:57:06 PM
Let's try it out tonight! lol
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#9
Posted: 4/3/2012 2:27:26 PM

Again, a friend showed me this.  I have not bet into it yet either, but did notice it won last night.  I will be watching it closely too.

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#10
Posted: 4/3/2012 2:48:56 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by nuggetmonster:

Hmmmm this wont pan out for the good trust me...

Looking back through Saturday it is 4-1.  I don't have a giant database, but We can track it here on out. 

NuggetMonster is pretty awesome, though

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#11
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:31:25 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by MrFrank]

Looking back through Saturday it is 4-1.  I don't have a giant database, but We can track it here on out. 

NuggetMonster is pretty awesome, though

 

 

 

I am gonna watch it as well.

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#12
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:39:50 PM
SEX WITH A MAN
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realscififan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
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#13
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:40:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MrFrank:

is the inverse true?  does it apply to dogs covering in any way?

It is supposed to but I am not sure how it works with the point spread.  He needs to explain that too me more.

 

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#14
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:41:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HawaiianBear:

It fit last night's CBB championship game.  Kentucky was giving 6 1/2 and was leading by 14 at the half.  2H line was Kansas - 1 1/2.  Kansas covered the 2H line.  BOL. 



yes but kansas is an all around good 2h team so taking them was an easy pick.  i generally like to take the other side when the favored team is blowing out the dog in 1st half by like 13+ if the base line was low bcause they generally get lazy and start to slack off thinking the game is over (ex: OSU vs Kansas)
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#15
Posted: 4/3/2012 6:07:08 PM

Seems like the opposite would be any time the dog is leading at half and the 2nd Half line has the favorite by less than the full game cover...take the fave in 2nd...

Example...Team A is the dog of 6 points, they are ahead at the half by 2...the 2nd half line favors Team B by 7...so if Team B wins the second Half by exactly 7...Team A still covers the spread for the whole game...

Seems Like a great way to hedge...give yurself no chance of losing...but a window towards winning both...

 

 

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#16
Posted: 4/4/2012 1:03:06 AM
realscifi,

LA-NJ game hit again dude!

Team A: LA
Team B: NJ

Line was fakers -8.5

halftime score LA 58 - NJ 45

2nd half: NJ some places -1, my books was -1.5

Final Score: LA 91 - NJ 87

wow !!

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#17
Posted: 4/4/2012 5:45:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by realscififan:

A friend showed me this and from the numbers I have researched it is accurate.

This is for 2nd half plays only!!!

If a team is covering the spread by 1 1/2 times for the game by halftime, bet the other side.

Sounds simple but here is the kicker.  Only bet it if the 2nd half spread still lets the winner cover by the original point spread.

Example:

Team A favored by 8 1/2 for the game.  At half time they are winning by 13.  If the 2nd half point spread was Team B favored by 4 or less then take Team B since the 4 would still make team A cover.

Yes if they cover by more then 4 then Team A would not cover, but the bet only concerns the spread and if the spread gives them the cover.

My numbers show this hitting 83.7 % for the NBA and last year hitting 79%

Can anyone check this out as well. 

 

 



I would really like this to be true, but I have my doubts. I would actually check this but don't have a source on historical live 2nd half lines. Why don't you post your numbers and anyone will be able to see, at a glance,  weather you're onto something or not.

Also, is this this the same for favs & dogs ? If it is it went 2-2 yesterday.....
Cavs game +9.5 half +19 2nd half pk  lost
Pacers game -5.5 half -8 2nd half -5 won
Kings game +3 half +9 2nd half -1 lost
Nets game +8 half +14 2nd half line -1 won

not sure what the line was in Detoit.
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#18
Posted: 4/4/2012 7:00:17 AM
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#19
Posted: 4/5/2012 3:17:18 PM
Anyone looking into this?
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#20
Posted: 4/5/2012 4:30:12 PM
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#21
Posted: 4/5/2012 5:08:37 PM

That is the first thing I like to do when looking at 2nd half lines is to see if there is a big disparity between the full game spread, and what they offer up at the half. A lot of times there are chances at value if the 2nd half line is far off from the original spread, but there is really no rhyme or reason to which side covers each time you have to look at the box score or it's even better if you have watched the game and can predict what kind of changes will  be made in the 2nd half.

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#22
Posted: 4/5/2012 8:02:35 PM
83% huh
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#23
Posted: 4/5/2012 10:05:57 PM
Not sure if I understand this correctly, but the spread was DET -8 for the full game and halftime ended with DET up 11. The halftime spread was DET -1.5, so I bet a small amount on Washington and it cashed.

Interesting...
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#24
Posted: 4/5/2012 10:17:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by belltheringer:

Not sure if I understand this correctly, but the spread was DET -8 for the full game and halftime ended with DET up 11. The halftime spread was DET -1.5, so I bet a small amount on Washington and it cashed.

Interesting...


Nooooo! anyway you are so lucky. Only bet WAS if WAS is favor less than 3. But I dont know about  this is a play  cuz 11 is  not 1 1/2 of 8
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#25
Posted: 4/5/2012 10:46:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kevinhp67:



Nooooo! anyway you are so lucky. Only bet WAS if WAS is favor less than 3. But I dont know about  this is a play  cuz 11 is  not 1 1/2 of 8

Oh garbage haha, thanks for clearing that up for me.

I didn't think I understood this system, but I have a better grasp on it now. Thanks kevin
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