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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA - Game Breakdowns (4-3-12)
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/3/2012 10:09:58 AM
The most comprehensive single-page advanced statistical NBA game breakdown on the web.  Also includes a proprietary score prediction model to determine value against the spread.




NBA - Game Breakdowns (4-3-12)





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#2
Posted: 4/3/2012 10:26:31 AM
cant open it bro
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#3
Posted: 4/3/2012 10:28:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kidjerky:

cant open it bro

Copy & Paste this into the URL:

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B8gd-be68XCvMUlZQloxSzhSOGlCRWdGNXlqVkpUUQ
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#4
Posted: 4/3/2012 10:28:29 AM
thanks bro
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#5
Posted: 4/3/2012 10:36:04 AM
damn ipadcant openit.. whats the plays bro?
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#6
Posted: 4/3/2012 10:37:54 AM
Damn, this looks like a ton of work...nicely done silly!

Gonna read through tonight's matchups now...

BOL
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#7
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:15:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kidjerky:

damn ipadcant openit.. whats the plays bro?

Download Adobe Reader.  You need this to open or view .PDF files.  If that doesn't work, I can't help you.  These breakdowns don't just tell you what games to play, they're a research tool that compiles and compares advanced statistics all on a single 8.5x11 page.  The statistics on these breakdowns are all available freely on the web, but there is nowhere that offers them in this format all in one place.  I've taken what would take hours of research on the web and consolidated all of it into one source that takes 30 seconds to open or download.
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#8
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:24:27 PM
wow. so there'll be game breakdowns everyday?
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#9
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:25:55 PM
Why are injuries not factored in?
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#10
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:30:55 PM
I just looked at it Si1ly  !!!! I was wondering what there record was , and how acurate they have been !!!

THX !!!!!!

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#11
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:32:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by marlolram:

wow. so there'll be game breakdowns everyday?

Yes.  I've automated the entire process so data is automatically downloaded from the internet every day and is linked dependently to the two teams playing.  All I have to do is select who is playing who and the rest of the cells are updated accordingly.  It only takes me about 30 minutes each day to publish them as PDF files online.  I will post a link each morning (or sometimes the night before) that includes the breakdowns for every game that day.
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#12
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:34:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SoonerCowboy:

Why are injuries not factored in?

Because the model uses team season averages in the formula (not player averages).  Also injury news tends to change throughout the day.  It's best to provide the analysis assuming both teams play with a full healthy line-up and allow you to make the corrections as you see fit depending upon who is absent.
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#13
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:38:08 PM
82games.com 
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#14
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:41:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BOCCO:

I just looked at it Si1ly  !!!! I was wondering what there record was , and how acurate they have been !!!

THX !!!!!!


I've made some slight changes to the model that I was using to derive the home/away power rankings posted here since the all-star-break.  Using these rankings, teams with one or more points of value covered the spread at a 58% rate.  I'd like to think these results will continue using the updated model, but that remains to be seen.

Don't think of the score projection as an accurate predicting tool that blindly suggests which bets to place.  It's a visual tool that assumes both teams play an average game based on the NBA's major advanced statistical predictors (namely the four factors).  Injuries are not factored in and neither is motivational or other intangible angles.  If I started to account for these angles in my predictions it would compromise their accuracy.  You'll have to make those adjustments as you see fit.  Think of these breakdowns as a research tool first and a game predictor second.
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#15
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:41:42 PM

looking at the data then your plays tonight are

cleveland +9

pho/sac under 215

orl/det over 182

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#16
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:42:18 PM
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#17
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:43:58 PM
Nice work.

Talk me out of spurs-heat-grizzlies moneyline parlay

spurs -9 on the road might seem like alot, but if the cavs are without irving, they will have alot of trouble keeping up with the spurs 11 man rotation..

Heat -9: they are a different team at home, as the role players can actually hit a jumper and they have dominated the sixers this yeat already... add in that the sixers are not the same team as 2 months ago

Grizz -7: fading the warriors on the road against a strong "in the paint" team. my biggest concern would be the grizz b2b, especailly coming off a draing game vs okc. but the grizz have been streaky this year, and could be in the middle of a winning streak here
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#18
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:44:14 PM
thx for the hard work bro !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#19
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:44:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoFumbles:

82games.com 

Some of the data on these spreadsheets are downloaded from the team pages on this site.  Very useful tool for understanding advanced statistics on a player by player level.  Definitely a great website to browse if anyone is looking to determine how much a specific player's injury will affect a team.  I also use 82games in the jump shot locations comparison.
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#20
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:46:05 PM
Yep. That site is extremly important. 

Who you takin' tonight si1ly? 
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#21
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:47:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bob696969:

Nice work.

Talk me out of spurs-heat-grizzlies moneyline parlay

spurs -9 on the road might seem like alot, but if the cavs are without irving, they will have alot of trouble keeping up with the spurs 11 man rotation..

Heat -9: they are a different team at home, as the role players can actually hit a jumper and they have dominated the sixers this yeat already... add in that the sixers are not the same team as 2 months ago

Grizz -7: fading the warriors on the road against a strong "in the paint" team. my biggest concern would be the grizz b2b, especailly coming off a draing game vs okc. but the grizz have been streaky this year, and could be in the middle of a winning streak here

Hard to argue with any of those plays.. although the Heat seem totally disinterested right now.  In my opinion, they'll be on cruise control until the playoffs start.  Philadelphia might have more motivation tonight to avoid the season sweep.  Not saying they'll win outright, but they have a good chance of covering the 9.
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#22
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:53:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by topshow:

looking at the data then your plays tonight are

cleveland +9

pho/sac under 215

orl/det over 182


Careful with totals for now.  It's a pretty basic formula that just looks at off/def efficiency numbers and pace.  I'm using it more as a visual tool for the team ATS projections.  And remember, value of 1 point against a 4 point spread is 25% value.  Even 5 points of value against a 200 point total is only 2.5% of value.
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#23
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:17:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoFumbles:

Yep. That site is extremly important. 

Who you takin' tonight si1ly? 


I don't know man... my picks have been garbage.  Leaning on Philadelphia and the over in Detroit.
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#24
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:31:18 PM
Gonna wait and see the status of Howard and Anderson before I touch the Orlando game.
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#25
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:49:48 PM
Thanks for the hard work and sharing information. It's appreciated. Good karma for you!
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