NBA - Relative Point Spread Rankings (03/20)

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA - Relative Point Spread Rankings (03/20)
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/20/2012 5:24:12 PM
These are the updated relative point spread rankings as of March 20th, 2012.  I've included in this thread separate power rankings for home and away.  We're deep enough into the season that teams have played a statistically relevant amount of games both at home and away.  This model works the same as before except the power rankings are derived using only home splits and only away splits respectively.  This means you no longer need to adjust for home court advantage: just take the differential between the home team's PSR and the away team's PSR and you have your true line (less adjustment for intangibles).

These numbers are the result of a complex formula that gives different weights to the metrics that most accurately predict the outcome of a basketball game (the big 4 are eFG%, TOR, ORR, FTR among other things).  While I'm not willing to divulge the specific formula I've come up with I am willing to explain a little about how it works.  This formula effectively converts each of the aforementioned stat categories into a separate value that represents the number of points that a team is better or worse than their competitor (specific to each stat).  I do this by using the differential between the offensive and defensive rates for each of these stat categories.  I then apply a relative weight to each of these differentials depending on how significant an influence that stat has on determining the winner.  This also normalizes the numbers so they can be compared from one team to another.  eFG% is the most important - it has about 45% relative weight in my model.  ORR and TOR each have about 18% weight and FTR about 7%.  There are a few other metrics that I look at, but don't have more than 5% weight.  Add up all the individual stat point spread adjustments and you get your total point spread ranking for a team.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/20/2012 5:24:30 PM
HOME TEAM POWER RANKINGS

01. Miami Heat  +6.4
02. Los Angeles Lakers  +6.0
03. Chicago Bulls  +5.7
04. Oklahoma City Thunder  +5.6
05. San Antonio Spurs  +4.7
06. Philadelphia 76ers  +4.2
07. Portland Trailblazers  +3.9
08. Orlando Magic  +3.9
09. Utah Jazz  +3.1
10. Memphis Grizzlies  +3.1
11. Houston Rockets  +3.0
12. Boston Celtics  +2.9
13. Atlanta Hawks  +2.8
14. Indiana Pacers  +2.7
15. Denver Nuggets  +2.5
16. New York Knicks  +2.1
17. Los Angeles Clippers  +2.1
18. Dallas Mavericks  +2.0
19. Phoenix Suns  +1.6
20. Minnesota Timberwolves  +1.0 
21. Toronto Raptors  +0.4
22. Sacramento Kings  -0.2
23. Milwaukee Bucks  -0.8
24. Cleveland Cavaliers  -0.8
25. Golden State Warriors  -1.1
26. Detroit Pistons  -1.3
27. New Orleans Hornets  -2.5
28. Washington Wizards  -2.7
29. New Jersey Nets  -4.6
30. Charlotte Bobcats  -4.9

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/20/2012 5:24:48 PM
AWAY TEAM POWER RANKINGS

01. Chicago Bulls  +4.5  
02. Oklahoma City Thunder  +2.4
03. Miami Heat  +2.1
04. Denver Nuggets  +1.8
05. Orlando Magic  +1.7
06. Philadelphia 76ers  +0.8
07. Los Angeles Clippers  +0.7
08. Minnesota Timberwolves  +0.2
09. San Antonio Spurs  -0.3
10. Atlanta Hawks  -0.4
11. Dallas Mavericks  -0.7
12. Los Angeles Lakers  -1.0
13. Indiana Pacers  -1.2
14. New York Knicks  -1.2
15. Cleveland Cavaliers  -1.5
16. New Orleans Hornets  -2.0
17. Golden State Warriors  -2.2
18. Houston Rockets  -2.4
19. Memphis Grizzlies  -2.7
20. Phoenix Suns  -2.9
21. Milwaukee Bucks  -3.0
22. New Jersey Nets  -3.4
23. Toronto Raptors  -3.6
24. Boston Celtics  -3.9
25. Portland Trailblazers  -4.1
26. Utah Jazz  -4.6
27. Sacramento Kings  -5.5
28. Detroit Pistons  -5.5
29. Washington Wizards  -5.7
30. Charlotte Bobcats  -8.3

matangster PM matangster
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Posted: 3/20/2012 6:05:16 PM
fresh4lyph PM fresh4lyph
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Posted: 3/20/2012 6:12:38 PM
raptors, clippers, portland?
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si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/20/2012 6:21:54 PM
VALUE AGAINST THE SPREAD (3/20) LAC +1.5 TOR +3.3 PHO +1.2 HOU +6.5 UTA +3.7 SAC +5.5 POR +3.4

JayBizol PM JayBizol
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Posted: 3/20/2012 6:40:20 PM
I sure love these posts, keep 'em comin' si1ly!
ionutt79 PM ionutt79
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Posted: 3/20/2012 6:41:08 PM
thank you si1ly and best of luck today
frahca13 PM frahca13
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Posted: 3/20/2012 9:24:22 PM
Hé..and ...ho...work?
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teamJD PM teamJD
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Posted: 3/20/2012 9:27:26 PM
  
SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
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Posted: 3/21/2012 12:08:56 AM

Thanks for the update Sir...your hard work is very much appreciated!!!

 

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/21/2012 1:01:19 AM
Record since the All-Star-Break

All games with 1 or more points of value against the Vegas line:  84-54 (60.9%)

All games with 2 or more points of value against the Vegas line:  61-41 (59.8%)

All games with 3 or more points of value against the Vegas line:  38-33 (53.5%)

All games with 4 or more points of value against the Vegas line:  32-26 (55.2%)

All games with 5 or more points of value against the Vegas line:  21-15 (58.3%)

All games with 6 or more points of value against the Vegas line:  9-6 (60.0%)

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/21/2012 1:06:21 AM
That's the best part of this model.  You choose how to use it!  Bet a lot of games... only bet a select few.  Any way you slice it, if you follow the value, you win.

I recommend looking for 3.5 points of value or more.  Tonight this system went 3-0 bringing the total since the all-star-break to 34-28 (54.8%).

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/21/2012 1:18:50 AM
The covers forum system really struggles with formatting copy and paste text.  I spend so much extra time trying to make these threads easy to read and follow and more often than not it gets screwed up somehow.  You'd think when you copy and paste something that it will post as an identical size and font as the original... sheesh???
JBender PM JBender
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Posted: 3/21/2012 5:20:12 PM
Looks like Clippers and Minny tonight hit the bogey of 3.5 or more value
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si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/21/2012 6:28:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JBender:

Looks like Clippers and Minny tonight hit the bogey of 3.5 or more value

Yep.  You got it.  I think Toronto is worth a look as well.  Rose won't be starting and you're getting a home team catching 7.5 points.  That's ridiculous.  Close enough on the value scale as well coming in at +3.4.  Remember, the value is calculated using season averages and even though the Bulls have been playing well in his absence, it's hard to see them stepping up to 100% effort on the road against the lowly Raptors.
Kessel PM Kessel
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Posted: 3/22/2012 12:54:07 PM
Will you have new chart up before the games start? I feel as thought a lot has changed lol

If not, Bos and Was are the play?
prophet777 PM prophet777
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Posted: 3/22/2012 12:57:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kessel:

Will you have new chart up before the games start? I feel as thought a lot has changed lol

If not, Bos and Was are the play?

He just updated it two days ago.  He doesn't update it daily--more like every week or two.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/22/2012 1:45:49 PM
Washington and Portland have the most value tonight.  Here's the value breakdown against the current Vegas lines.

WAS +5
BOS +0.4
LAC +0.3
GSW +2.3
SAC +2.9
POR +7.6

I'd be careful with the Portland game.  It looks to me like they've completely given up this season.  Vegas wouldn't be giving 7.5 points of value away for no reason.  The last time these two teams played in Portland this season, Portland was -6 and they covered with ease.  Standard adjustment and you would expect Portland to open at -7.  Obviously they've lost some players sine then and are playing much worse lately.  But now the spread has moved 7 points in the other direction?  Something really stinks about this line.
fresh4lyph PM fresh4lyph
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Posted: 3/22/2012 3:30:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

Washington and Portland have the most value tonight.  Here's the value breakdown against the current Vegas lines.

WAS +5
BOS +0.4
LAC +0.3
GSW +2.3
SAC +2.9
POR +7.6

I'd be careful with the Portland game.  It looks to me like they've completely given up this season.  Vegas wouldn't be giving 7.5 points of value away for no reason.  The last time these two teams played in Portland this season, Portland was -6 and they covered with ease.  Standard adjustment and you would expect Portland to open at -7.  Obviously they've lost some players sine then and are playing much worse lately.  But now the spread has moved 7 points in the other direction?  Something really stinks about this line.

were looking at a team that has basically been on a freefall.  I can't bet against memphis here, despite the fact that they haven't covered since zbo has been back.  i suspect they get their act together coming off a loss in sac where they couldn't get a stop all game.  the last time they came to portland it was 4 games in 5 nights and they were definately tired from there 7 gm win streak.  there is no reason to back portland right now.  there coach is a video intern.  the low line for memphis all they have to do is go into the rose garden & win which hasn't proved too difficult the past few weeks.  
SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
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Posted: 3/22/2012 4:48:13 PM

Wow, not seeing much I like tonight.  Might be a complete pass for me.  Considering Washington, but I wouldn't bet $.02 on Portland right now.  They are playing like a bad D league team!  Good luck everyone!

 

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/22/2012 4:59:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

Wow, not seeing much I like tonight.  Might be a complete pass for me.  Considering Washington, but I wouldn't bet $.02 on Portland right now.  They are playing like a bad D league team!  Good luck everyone!

 


Agreed it's an ugly looking card all around.  Much better opportunities in the NCAA tournament games tonight.  I'll be on Ohio State -7.5 and Florida +2.5 in the late games.  Still debating adding another play for the 7:00 set.  Good luck with whatever you decide to play.
SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
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Posted: 3/22/2012 5:14:38 PM
Might roll with a small ML parlay on Michigan St. and Ohio St.  Hate parlays, but every now and then I will put a few bucks down on one.  Not much of a Big 10 fan either.  Best of luck with your plays tonight too Si1ly!
rlawson PM rlawson
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Posted: 3/22/2012 7:02:29 PM
I'm on Sacramento tonight; thanks for sharing your numbers. The value isn't as high as some of the others, but considering the blatant home vs. away records for these teams, I've got to do it. The teams have played twice this year and, true to form, both won at home.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 3/22/2012 7:13:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rlawson:

I'm on Sacramento tonight; thanks for sharing your numbers. The value isn't as high as some of the others, but considering the blatant home vs. away records for these teams, I've got to do it. The teams have played twice this year and, true to form, both won at home.

I like that play more than the other two.  Washington is 1-12 ATS after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Indiana has also been blowing out their lesser competition lately.  And I've already discussed why Portland shouldn't be touched with a ten foot pole.  Sacramento is the best bet out of the games with value.  Good luck RL.
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