Posted: 3/12/2012 11:47:04 AM
YTD (Overall): 48-34 / 58.5% (+23.1)
4 Unit Bets: (3-1)
3 Unit Bets: (2-2)
2 Unit Bets: (16-8)
1 Unit Bets: (27-23)
Yesterday's Thread: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101293589
Today's Lines / Mine (Actual):
New Jersey vs. Milwaukee - 197.7 (197.5)
Chicago vs. New York - 200.4 (197.5)
New Orleans vs. Charlotte - 189.8 (182.5)
San Antonio vs. Washington - 204.9 (205.5)
Utah vs. Detroit - 189.9 (191.5)
Minnesota vs. Phoenix - 196.9 (198.0)
LA Clippers vs. Boston - 193.4 (186.5)
For today's games, I wanted to use the Milwaukee game as a berometer. I haven't been getting good reads on those lately. As I said in my post yesterday, I'm going to start incorporating recenty events into my lines, rather than rely on an entire season's worth of numbers to read "accurately" for each individual game. I calculated the NJ/MIL line WITHOUT my new data and got 191.5, a -6.0 variance which, according to the 'old' system, would hint at the UNDER. As you can see from my numbers above, with the new data added in, I've calculated the line to a +0.2 variance, nearly dead-on with the posted line.
The data above suggests two plays for tonight: NO/CHA OVER and LAC/BOS OVER, both of which I like and will look into a bit further. But for all other games, the greatest variance is 2.9; all other games with a variance of under 1.7, two games which were within less than a point of the posted line.
I like this for two reasons: (1) using the new data is giving me a more accurate read of not only what teams have done over the course of the season, but what they've trended to recently and (2) it's giving me OVER plays, which I've been missing lately (yesterday not withstanding). Scoring has increased dramatically (no official research having been done) since the All-Star break and using the new data is taking that into account.
Let me know what you guys think - thanks.