Posted:
#1
Newbie, no record, no previous posts, no picks posted, etc... but I've been watching for quite some time and I feel it's time for me to give it a shot. Let's just say I make money when betting, doesn't matter how large or small I make it out to be in internet land. Pretend it's $10.00 or pretend it's $1000.00, doesn't matter to me.
The way I determine betting size all depends on the match-up, spread/over/under, and the gut feeling I get. I'll just put the picks into 3 categories: Like it, Love it, and Lock it up! And now on to my first pick:
PHI +3.5 @ ORL [Love it]
Why do I think Philadelphia will cover the spread? I like to look at the trends first. Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in it's last 5 games on the road. PHI is also 7-4 ATS away, while ORL is 7-9 ATS home. Giving me points to a team and seeing to major trends like this makes me happy. I usually only look at most recent trends, not the ones that span years. (Yes, I know that ORL is 8-2 SU vs. PHI in last ten, but that spans back to 2009, not really relevant to me currently.)
PHI TEAM ORL
95.9 PTS FOR 93.2
86.8 PTS AGNST 91.5
9.1 DIFF. 1.8
33.3 DEF REBND 32.3
9.6 OFF REBND 10.8
45.8 FG% 43.3
72.2 FT% 65.6
6.1 3-POINTERS 10.0
8.3 STEALS 6.5
After looking at the stats, I see a large amount of favor for PHI, especially the differential @ 9.1 points. There ability to score while consistently playing excellent defense leads to a nice margin of victory for PHI. Saw a few other stats I like, all favoring PHI including:
ORL Home Scoring (95.6) vs. PHI Road Defense (92.0)
ORL Overall Scoring (93.2) vs. PHI Overall Defense (92.0)
PHI Away Scoring (98.4) vs. ORL Home Defense (92.1)
A few extra notes on the game:
Orlando leads the league in 3 pointers made with 10.0 per game, but Philadelphia is 3rd in 3 points made allowed with 4.8 per game. Orlando also has the worst free throw percentage in the league with just 65.6%
I don't have a prediction, I don't know the future. I can only make my BEST GUESS as to what I think happens. If I'm wrong, feel free to hate me, but just know: I lost money too.
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