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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 2/2/12 NBA Hoops
swolesbee send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:06:39 PM
I will have 1 play for tonight I'm pretty sure. I need to watch 1 more game and look into a couple other things about the play. I should have the play posted around 6-630pm central time. It's not an early game.
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#2
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:10:24 PM
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#3
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:13:46 PM
thanks Lets hit
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#4
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:15:57 PM
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#5
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:24:47 PM
Golden State Warriors -5 -104

Write-up coming. Wanted to get it to y'all early because if the line does move I think it will only go up.
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#6
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:35:28 PM
With u on da Warriors bro!! :)
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#7
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:37:06 PM
You're a good capper Bee
Stay tough and good luck

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#8
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:46:54 PM
 GL BEE.
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#9
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:49:06 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by swolesbee:

Golden State Warriors -5 -104

Write-up coming. Wanted to get it to y'all early because if the line does move I think it will only go up.

it just dropped to -4.5 in my book

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#10
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:58:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cashinsports:

it just dropped to -4.5 in my book



FML. It would.
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#11
Posted: 2/2/2012 6:00:45 PM
I dig it man, appreciate all the hard work that you do.
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#12
Posted: 2/2/2012 7:09:56 PM
BOL bee
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#13
Posted: 2/2/2012 7:35:37 PM
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#14
Posted: 2/2/2012 9:25:52 PM
My thoughts on the Jazz can be found on the 1st part of my blog on my covers sports space. My opinion on them hasnt changed too much despite their loss yesterday. I will say their last few games they havent been attacking the rim/paint as much as in the past. For whatever reason they are taking more jumpers than normal and their shot selection hasnt been as good.

Warriors team analysis:
Curry, Monta, and Nate Robinson are all extremely quick guards. All 3 of them are threats to blow by their defender and score or create a shot for an open team mate. Wright started out terrible this year but is a long(6'9) athletic wingman who can shoot the open 3 and create his own shot at times. Lee has a deadly midrange jumper, is an above average pick n roll player/finisher, but is only an average post up player. Biedrich cant score without someone creating a shot for him. His role is to dunk, rebound, and play defense. The same goes for Udoh when he plays. Occasionally Jackson will play Tyler at the 5 in limited spurts. I actually have liked what I've seen from tyler this year but he doesnt play enough to be relevant (although if GS bigs are in foul trouble tonight we might see him.) Mcguire usually plays the backup 4 spot. hes undersized but is athletic and is a decent defender. his role is usally pretty limited offensively he is more of an energy hustle player but can occasionally score. The heart of GS bench is Brandon Rush, Klay Thompson, and Robinson. Thompson and Rush are excellent spot up shooters, and they are also both tall. Thompson is 6'7 and Rush is 6'6. Rush leads the nba this year in 3 point percentage and has been on a terror lately. Both are pretty good defenders as well.

On offense Golden State runs the pick n pop to perfection. They run the pick n roll occasionally but because of their lack of talented big men other than lee they generally prefer to pick n pop and hit lee for a midrange jumper(something he is very good at). Also, many times they will have a big set a pick but its just for the guard to come off of and shoot a jumpshot or drive to the hoop. This is a very guard oriented offense. very limited post play and very little scoring in the paint unless its from a driving guard or forward. Because of the quickness of the guards, golden state can get very good looks. they have very good ball movement after one of their guards has penetrated the defense and kicked out. its not uncommon to see golden state drive, kick, and make 2 or 3 more quick passes resulting in an open 3. They almost always have at least 3 terrific 3 point shooters together at all times on the court. They are definitely a 3 point shooting team-they can live by it and die by it at times. I mentioned in the utah blog yesterday that devin harris wasnt a good defender against quick guards but that the clippers run so much pick n roll that harris will often have some help and wont be exposed as much because of this fact. Golden state does run some pick n roll and pick n pop as i mentioned but they will frequently run iso sets for their guards if they feel they have an advantage. this could be very bad for harris. also, monta ellis has been going to the low post a lot this year and is having some success against smaller guards. if he is matched up with Harris or Burks at any time in this game i woudnt be surprised if GS cleared out and he went to work.

I mentioned in the utah blog that they really struggle to defend smaller quicker guards. nate, curry, and monta are exactly that. they have a huge advantage. that advantage is even more magnified by the fact that the warriors are a guard oriented offense. it would be one thing if they had quick guards but excellent post play which they frequently used on offense but they dont. they will be attacking with guardplay and wing play all night because thats what they do. the jazz have good shot blocking and interior defense but because golden state doesnt go to the post that is somewhat negated. the guards do attack the paint but other than monta most of them drive in and shoot short/midrange jumpers or floaters or something similar. they very rarely drive all the way to the rim-where shotblocking can be a factor. i see alot of penetration by the warrior guards tonight because i dont think howard, hayward, Burks, and Harris can keep those guys in front of them. this will result in lots of open 3 point attempts in my opinion....at least thats what im hoping. Another weakness of the jazz defense in this game is contesting lee's jumpshot. as i mentioned in the blog the way they defend the pick n roll is by overextending the big man on the pg and almost double teaming the ball for a second until the guard can catch back up. some teams the big man shows for a second, and then goes back to the big man. the way utah does it it really opens up the other teams big man for a midrange jumpshot. Think of what aldridge and kurt thomas did against them in utah. between those 2 guys they probably hit 8 or 9 open midrange jumpers, and aldridge could have had a lot more but missed them. i think lee hits 6-10 midrange jumpers tonight. the shot will be their for him at least.

Obviously the jazz have a glaring advantage in the paint. they have 4 big time big men who GS will have a hard time guarding and boxing out. utah's entire gameplan is predicated on attacking the paint so in theory they could dominate the game and win the game in that regard.

So why do I like Golden State if both teams have a seemingly equal mismatch?
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#15
Posted: 2/2/2012 9:26:11 PM
1) Zone defense. the warriors have busted out a zone defense many times this year and they are better at it than most of the other teams that try it out. you can tell they practice it. they ran it beautifully against utah the last time these teams played at oracle. it gave utah all sorts of problems. it made them take a lot more jumpers and 3's which is something that they aren't great at-especially on the road. these jumpers led to long rebounds which GS turned to points quickly because they love to play fast and push the ball. it also really helped negate the post presence of the utah bigs. the jazz had to really work to get the ball to their bigs and when they did you could tell the jazz werent comfortable with the shots they were getting. It also helped protect the warrior players from fouls because they were able to deny the ball getting to the big men down low. It forces utah to become more "guard oriented" but as i already mentioned the guardplay really favors the warriors. GS made multiple big runs in the game when they switched to zone last time they played and i expect a heavy does of it tonight.

2) another weakness of utah is playing against great 3 point shooting teams-especially on the road. they score lots of 2's. they could be outmatched against an already good 3 point shooting team in golden state. it wouldnt surprise me if the jazz attempted 10-15 3's tonight and made a low percentage of them and the warriors attempted 25-30 3's and made a high percentage of them. quite simply-i like golden state to "outscore" the jazz. i think they will put up more points than utah can match-especially with the guard mismatches they have. by the way something to note. utah is dead last in defending the 3 ball on the road.

3) Golden state is fresh and utah is coming off a b2b. also, a trend in sports is when an up and coming team loses a game to a team already viewed as being a contender it really hurts their psyche in the next game. this is universal in any sport in my opinion and we could see that tonight. that was a backbreaking loss to utah last night-will they have recovered mentally?

4) Earl watson is out for the game and so is raja bell. If you followed utah this year you know how important and good watson has been for them. he is a captain and has been playing exceptional basketball. Harris has struggled a lot this year and watson has always been there to "clean up the mess" and give utah some quality minutes at pg. The last time these 2 teams played Raja bell was the best player/most important player for utah. his defense on monta ellis was exceptional and he stopped him twice on 1 on 1 possessions where monta was trying to close out/win the game. he is out this game. to put this in perepective his +/- in that game was +12. his backups who will be playing in his place tonight (Howard, Burks) were -8 and -11 respectively. Harris injured his hamstring against the clippers and had to come out of the game. it is my belief watching the body language that he wasnt going to come back in the game because of the injury. But he had to when watson was hurt. he looked to be moving ok but for what its worth did not hit a single shot other than a free throw after he returned from injury. and i can bet after the game and a long flight it tightened up even more. it wouldnt surprise me if harris is a late scratch in this game. if he plays i know he wont be at 100% or even close to it and going up against the guards he will be defending tonight that is a recipe for disaster. jamaal tinsley the 3rd string pg will probably play a lot tonight. he is old, and he left chris paul open for 3 twice yesterday in the 6 minutes he played. i dont see him being able to defend those guys ether. Also, steph curry missed the last game and the jazz only won by 1 point.

I think you could see a jazz offense disrupted by zone defense and by the injury of 1 or 2 of their point guards. bad pg play can kill an offense. i think with the return of curry and the subtraction of bell and watson this in itself will be enough to push golden state on top this game. Their quickness and 3 point shooting will be on display and being motivated by revenge-not wanting to lose to utah twice on their home floor will also play a big roll.

Lets go warriors. i need this.
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#16
Posted: 2/2/2012 9:27:08 PM
i got warriors too.  BOL! 
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#17
Posted: 2/2/2012 10:14:27 PM
Devin Harris was just officially ruled out. If the warriors lose to a 33 year old point guard who hasn't started a game in 3 years I might just jump lol. Jk.... But seriously.
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#18
Posted: 2/2/2012 11:48:42 PM
warriors up 2 at half. Lezzz gooo!!!!!
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#19
Posted: 2/2/2012 11:49:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by swolesbee:

warriors up 2 at half. Lezzz gooo!!!!!



LET'S GET IT!!
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#20
Posted: 2/2/2012 11:51:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by swolesbee:

warriors up 2 at half. Lezzz gooo!!!!!



Are you watching the game? What are your thoughts on the 2nd half from what you have seen?


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#21
Posted: 2/2/2012 11:51:06 PM
JUST POUNDED WARRIORS 2ND HALF LETS BRING IT HOME
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#22
Posted: 2/2/2012 11:55:11 PM
naa mademan i am tracking it on my phone but im watching the denver/clippers game since its on tnt and i wont be able to watch it later. no thoughts on the 2nd half other than: THEY BETTER friggin WIN BY 5 OR MORE LOL. are u watching it? what is david lee's problem? good defense by utah or is he just missing shots?
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#23
Posted: 2/2/2012 11:55:53 PM
also have the warriors played zone yet?
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#24
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:06:40 AM
Swolesbee...  I've been capping the NBA intensely and successfully for 9+ years.  I've been doing it pretty profitably.  I'm very well educated and honestly don't spend much time in these forums because there isn't much intelligent discussion.  Not sure what happened the other night with that lack of discipline - you need to get that straightened out because I just read your write-up on this GS/Utah game and it's one of the best write-ups on basketball fundamentals that I've ever read.  You've got an area of expertise...  don't throw it away cause your discipline and/or money management are weak.  Don't risk more than 5% of your roll on any one play.  This industry is a way to supplement your income nicely, not make you rich over night.  Slow and steady my friend.  I'm looking forward to reading more of these write-ups!  Nice job!   
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#25
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:12:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by swolesbee:

also have the warriors played zone yet?



No, not watching it..... hahahaha .... hoping you were. Watching Denver also. Took Denver FG and 2nd half. LAC looks tired after last night.

Looks like GSW are making a run.... can they close though???


  Go Denver!     Go GSW!    
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