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[NBA Betting] Topic: NBA picks, Friday, December 29, 2011 |
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kaponofor3 |
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#1 Posted: 12/30/2011 12:52:48 AM
YTD: 15-12, +1.88 units
For Friday:
1. Minnesota Timberwolves +8 (-110), 2.2 to win 2
2. Milwaukee Bucks -9 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5
Leans:
Memphis Grizzlies -5
Toronto Raptors +8.5
Los Angeles Clippers -1
I would not at all be surprised to see MIN beat MIA straight up tomorrow (yeah, that's right, I said it) -- a good look-ahead spot for MIA with CHA on deck after CHA gave them everything they could handle last game, I think MIA will overlook this Wolves team who is drastically improved, the Heat have no one to contend with Love on the boards (no one in the league really does), and this will be the biggest game of the season to date for MIN. Given the excitement level around MIN, the place should be rocking and catching 8 points with this young Wolves team is a place I want to be against the Heat.
I had IND on my list of plays but something is nagging me about the fact that IND has played two of what I expect to be two of the poorer teams in the league (DET and TOR) and didn't exactly blow either one out of the water like I expected them to... I just wonder why they aren't blowing bad teams out. If you aren't blowing teams out (like they should given their depth and talent level), its hard to lay DD with you even at home. Then add in that they have a B2B tomorrow and it makes you wonder if mentally some of them won't ease up a bit knowing they have only like 18 hours for their bodies to recover -- do they not go up for the rebound with that extra effort subconsciously?
I'm kinda banking on the fact that WAS sucks historically on the road given the knuckleheads they have on their team. I love Saunders response to Blatche complaining about getting the ball on the wing: "Well he doesn't have to shoot it from out there every team he touches it", just awesome. Milwaukee's had two days off to focus, and they have two days off after this, which is about as solid of a scheduling spot as you will get this season. To really put that into perspective, consider that the Washington Wizards do not even have two days in a row off until February 18th.
Memphis has a huge scheduling advantage, I would expect HOU to play very poorly tomorrow night coming off a big win against the Spurs. MEM is a load underneath as we all know and I don't know if HOU has the mental toughness collectively as a team to keep this one close, could see them packing it in if they get down.
Toronto, like MIN, I think can win this game SU, DAL doesn't exactly kill it at home.
LAC gets CHI only like maybe 20 hours after their game with SAC ended, LAC should be looking to make a statement in this game given their poor performance against San Antonio where they rolled over
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kaponofor3 |
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#2 Posted: 12/30/2011 12:55:13 AM
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fiire |
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#3 Posted: 12/30/2011 1:06:15 AM
As for the list of made up reasons I've heard, this is probably one of the top 5 
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kaponofor3 |
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#4 Posted: 12/30/2011 1:18:24 AM |
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Posted using a mobile device.quote |
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Marlboro_Man |
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#5 Posted: 12/30/2011 4:54:37 AM
BOL kap 
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instinctpicks |
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#6 Posted: 12/30/2011 6:20:22 AM |
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instinctpicks |
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#7 Posted: 12/30/2011 6:25:10 AM |
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PR9 |
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#8 Posted: 12/30/2011 6:25:58 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
How hard do you REALLY think that LeBron and Wade will play on a random behind regular season game in Minnesota on a Friday night. Are you kidding me, the team is gonna want to get the hell out of dodge and back to MIA on Friday night so they can hit the clubs and rest for CHA on Sunday
I had Minny in their season opener and bought a point to bring it to +7. They covered. Their record for their home openers is astonishing so I felt I had no choice even though it was against a great team like OKC.
And you're right. Miami beat up the bad teams last year and lost to the good ones. This season I see it as reversed. I think miami paces themselves and there will be some poor teams that will cover ATS, like Charlotte did.
I am a huge Heat fan (since the team's inception) and I listen to coach Spoelstra's interviews on NBA.com videos every day since the start of training camp. And their mentality is they're going to pace it this season, just to get through for the playoffs when it really matters. He said expect guys on the bench to see more playing time and they're going to scale off starter minutes. He's not looking for some super regular season record, he's just using the regular season as an experimental phase (with new plays and concepts) preparing for the playoffs.
With that said, I'm not touching the game. I will only play Miami when I know full well that they'll be very motivated. Just like I bet on them against dallas at -4, and also bet in the 1st H at home against Boston in their home opener. I knew they'd want to put on a show in the 1st half in front of their home crowd and on TNT, not to mention they blew out Orlando in their home opener last year.. and listening to the players themselves via the media how they are looking forward to come out strong for that game solidified it.
I will only play miami against a bad team if miami is at a home, as they have these games where they love to electrify the home crowd.. But I will not bet them on the road against poor teams. Last year they lost Cleveland.
But overall they played poor teams on the road rather well. But this is because of all the "boo's" from the crowd motivated them in their first go-around year. Now, this year, it feels like it's different. I will NOT be laying any big points on Miami on the road against very poor teams this year. |
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3BallBomber |
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#9 Posted: 12/30/2011 6:34:59 AM |
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#10 Posted: 12/30/2011 7:43:35 AM  |
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kaponofor3 |
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#11 Posted: 12/30/2011 9:42:24 AM
3. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
4. Toronto Raptors +8.5 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5
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#12 Posted: 12/30/2011 9:57:12 AM |
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#13 Posted: 12/30/2011 10:22:51 AM
Now let's get the win
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ManassaMauler |
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#14 Posted: 12/30/2011 10:40:51 AM
GL tonight
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#15 Posted: 12/30/2011 10:41:05 AM 
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#16 Posted: 12/30/2011 10:44:04 AM |
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kaponofor3 |
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#17 Posted: 12/30/2011 10:45:16 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by ManassaMauler:
who is 1/2/11 kap? y2j?
GL tonight
I'm hoping its Jericho, but I also would be happy if it were Steph and Shane returning... All signs kinda point to Jericho though (and if he does come back and feud with Punk leading up to a Wrestlemania match, I'll buy the PPV for that alone)
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#18 Posted: 12/30/2011 11:02:55 AM |
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#19 Posted: 12/30/2011 11:08:46 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
I'm hoping its Jericho, but I also would be happy if it were Steph and Shane returning... All signs kinda point to Jericho though (and if he does come back and feud with Punk leading up to a Wrestlemania match, I'll buy the PPV for that alone)
I think it's Shane and Stephanie...the boy in the promo turned his back on the company...much like Shane did when he left WWE. I think maybe we might see a dark sinister (yet face) group maybe with Shane, Steph, and Y2J trying to save (yes, again) the WWE but by claiming they're the rightful heirs to the company...and Y2J is the best in the world. I can dream though, no?
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kaponofor3 |
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#20 Posted: 12/30/2011 11:25:28 AM
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ManassaMauler |
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#21 Posted: 12/30/2011 11:28:42 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
On a sidenote, I find it extremely important in terms of futures to jump on teams as early as you can... case in point -- before the season, I had a chance to get on Indiana to win the East at +9000, which is a ridiculous number considering Indiana's team this year. Bookmaker now has them at +2000.
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kaponofor3 |
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#22 Posted: 12/30/2011 12:33:26 PM
5. Minnesota Timberwolves ML (+305), Toronto Raptors ML (+350), Los Angeles Clippers ML (+105) -- 0.5 units to win 18.2 units
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zamigo6 |
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#23 Posted: 12/30/2011 12:36:40 PM  who knows what that means...
On Minnesota with you, think its a great spot |
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#24 Posted: 12/30/2011 12:41:37 PM 
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#25 Posted: 12/30/2011 12:57:08 PM
I'm on the Heat 1st half. I think they get rocking early and take it easy in the 2nd half for maybe a Minn backdoor cover. I will most likely take the Wolves in the 2nd half if the Heat cover the 1st.
I love Toronto. No reason Dal should be laying this many on back end of back to back, especially with how gassed Dirk looked at the end of the game last night. Raptors may even win this game outright unless the refs darn them.
I'm staying away from a side in the Clips game. Took the under. Paul and Rose will be going at it all night. Should be an awesome game.
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