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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA WRITE UPS + TEAM ADVANCED STATS
zaryan33 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/22/2011 1:04:03 AM
Here goes nothing.
I've been spending some time doing team write-ups and looking at the team stats to try and find an edge. I believe you will find it interesting. Ill keep adding teams on a regular basis before the season starts.

Atlanta Hawks(44-38)(37-45 ATS)(34-48 O/U)
C:   Al Horford                                           
PF: Josh Smith                                           
SF: Marvin Williams                                          
SG: Joe Johnson                                            
PG: Jeff Teague
Notable Bench Players:  Kirk Hinrich, Tracy McGrady, Zaza Pachula

    Atlanta is a mixture of talented players who on paper seem pretty good, but for whatever reason they always disappoint. The Hawks biggest problem is they have players who are playing out of position. This explains why Atlanta is one of the worst teams when it comes to rebounding. Al Horford should be a power forward, and Josh Smith should be a small forward. Instead of pushing the ball, taking advantage of their small quick team, head coach Larry Drew has the team slow it down. This leads to long drawn out plays, and jump shot after jump shot. The Hawks took no steps in the off season to address their issues, in fact they lost their 6th man and arguably their best 1 on 1 player in Jamal Crawford. The additions of T-Mac and Stackhouse means nothing to me, other then more bad shots, leading to more fastbreak points for the opposition. I hope to see this team getting over valued so I can take advantage of a small Hawks team that relys too much on its outside shot. Looking into playing under the total is something important to remember when playing hawks games.

2010 Advanced Stats that are good:
Defensive Pace(3)        Opponents 3PtFG%(3)    
 Opponents FT rate(3)         Shots Assisted(5)

2010 Advanced Stats that are bad:
Opponents TO(29)    Pace(27)    Points(26)   
Offensive Rebounds(29)            Free Throw Rate(29)      
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Posted: 12/22/2011 1:15:27 AM
Phoenix Suns (40-42)(27-42-3 ATS)(41-41 O/U)

C:   Marcin Gortat                                          
PF: Channing Frye                                          
SF: Josh Childress                                           
SG: Jared Dudley                                          
PG: Steve Nash

Noteable Bench Players:  Robin Lopez, Shannon Brown, Hakim Warrick, Grant Hill, Sea Bass

    I dare you to find me one defensive stopper on this Phoenix team. I really think Phoenix is going to struggle a whole lot in 2012. Not only is their defense going to be poor, but their best player is 37 years old. Im talking of coarse about Steve Nash. With the shortened season, I could see Nash requiring more rest then in previous years. With Aaron Brooks still stuck in China, the Suns are using Sebastian Telfair as the backup for Nash. Phoenix is also really weak in the frontcoart. The 4 man rotation of Gortat, Lopez, Frye, and Warrick is very very weak. I hoping for a holiday miracle from Vegas in the form of over valued Suns games. They have the potential of being one of the worst 5 teams in the NBA... They were a .500 team last year so if my prediction is true it could be very profitable. Heady defensive teams should cause major problems for the Suns.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
Pace(8)        Pts(4)         FG%(7)        3PtFG%(4)        Assists(4)        3Pt Rate(4)
2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad:
Def Eff(24)       Opp Pts(29)        Opp FG%(24)       Def Reb(28)       Off Reb(28)          Free Throw Rate(24)       
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Posted: 12/22/2011 1:17:20 AM
Phoenix Suns (40-42)(27-42-3 ATS)(41-41 O/U)

C:   Marcin Gortat                                          
PF: Channing Frye                                          
SF: Josh Childress                                           
SG: Jared Dudley                                          
PG: Steve Nash

Noteable Bench Players:  Robin Lopez, Shannon Brown, Hakim Warrick, Grant Hill, Sea Bass

    I dare you to find me one defensive stopper on this Phoenix team. I really think Phoenix is going to struggle a whole lot in 2012. Not only is their defense going to be poor, but their best player is 37 years old. Im talking of coarse about Steve Nash. With the shortened season, I could see Nash requiring more rest then in previous years. With Aaron Brooks still stuck in China, the Suns are using Sebastian Telfair as the backup for Nash. Phoenix is also really weak in the frontcoart. The 4 man rotation of Gortat, Lopez, Frye, and Warrick is very very weak. I hoping for a holiday miracle from Vegas in the form of over valued Suns games. They have the potential of being one of the worst 5 teams in the NBA... They were a .500 team last year so if my prediction is true it could be very profitable. Heady defensive teams should cause major problems for the Suns.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
Pace(8)        Pts(4)         FG%(7)        3PtFG%(4)        Assists(4)        3Pt Rate(4)
2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad:
Def Eff(24)       Opp Pts(29)        Opp FG%(24)       Def Reb(28)       Off Reb(28)          Free Throw Rate(24)       
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Posted: 12/22/2011 1:38:01 AM
Toronto Raptors(22-60)(36-44-2 ATS)(38-44 O/U)
C:   Andrea Bargnani                                              
PF: Amir Johnson                                                                      SF:  James Johnson                                           
SG: Demar DeRozan                                             
PG: Jarred Bayliss

Notable Bench: Calderon, Ed Davis, Leandro Barbosa

    It doesn't take a genuis to figure out this lineup is pretty weak. Bargnani is a top 10 center at best, but he has always played like a soft euro. DeRozan is the best threat to score, but realistically Demar should be the 3th or 4th option on a good team. With no real go to scorer I am struggling to find a reason why this team with cover a majority of spreads. I could also see this team being under the total against good defensive teams. As if the offense wasn't bad enough,  I dont know how Toronto is going to be able to play consistent defense. Especially because they are shallow at every position. Dwane Casey is the head coach, and he is a defensive minded coach, but with Amir and Andrea as the main defensive stoppers, this team is going to be hurt by big, tough teams. Under the total could be profitable for a majority of the Raptors games

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
And1%(5)

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad:
Defensive Effeciency(30)          Effeciency Differncial(26)          Defensive Rebounding Rate(25)                                       Opponents Pts Scored(25)           
Opponents FG%(29)                          Opponents 3ptFG%(29)       Defensive Plays Rate (27)                    3ptFG%(30)
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Posted: 12/22/2011 2:04:18 AM
Los Angeles Lakers (57-25)(39-42-1 ATS)(33-49 O/U)

C:   Andrew Bynum                                         
PF: Pau Gasol                                                 
SF: Matt Barnes                                              
SG: Kobe Bryant                                          
PG: Steve Blake

Noteable Backups: Derek Fisher, Ebanks, McRoberts, Murphy

    The Lakers are really thin this year. They still have 3 very good players, however the rest of the team is very questionable. For the Lakers to compete they are going to need some solid production from these role players. There will be the nights where LA looks quite good, but I know there are going to be nights when LA looks awful. To me the Lakers are going to struggle a bit more to score. New coach Mike Brown will bring a new wrinkle to the Lakers playbook. Will this be a good thing or a bad thing? In my opinion this team wins and loses with Pau Gasol. When Gasol is hitting, it makes things easier for Bynum, which in turn makes things easier for Kobe and all the other jump shooters LA has. Look for the Lakers to be over valued a bit in the begining of the season. Teams who can match the length of the Lakers will be challenging for LA. Back to backs and long road trips should be excellent opportunities to bet against LA.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
Def Eff(6)       Opp Pts(8)       Opp FG%(5)        Opp 3Pt FG%(3)      Off Eff(7)       Points(9)              Ast Rate(10)           TO Rate(2)         Off Reb(5)

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad:
Opponents TO(23)       Def Reb(22)
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Posted: 12/22/2011 2:26:58 AM
Great read. Keep it up.
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Posted: 12/22/2011 2:37:34 AM
thx for the post  good info 
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Posted: 12/22/2011 3:05:07 AM
New York Knicks (42-40)(46-34-2 ATS)(42-39 O/U)

C:   Tyson Chandler
PF: Amare Sroudamire
SF: Carmelo Anthony
SG: Landry Fields
PG: Tony Douglas

Notable Bench Players: Baron Davis, Bibby, Shumpert, Bill Walker

    New York's starting five is solid. I really like the addition of Chandler, even though I still think he is a bit over rated. He will improve the teams defense and its rebounding. But it seems like everyone is praising him and calling him the catalyst for the Mavericks championship. No doubt dude is talented on the defense end of the hoop, but he is no Dwight Howard. The knicks are an improved team for sure, however much of this teams success is going to depend on their outside shot. As good as melo is, he still seems to take way too many bad shots. And as good as Amare is, there is just something i don't trust when he gets the ball deep in the post and has to be strong. His game is getting more and more finess, which is something the Knicks already have too much of. I also have only a small amount of fate in Tony Douglas. He is in no way a starting PG on a championship team. Most teams with a below average PG will compensate with an above average SG. The Knicks however have neither. Another thing the Knicks don't have a solid bench player. I guess when Baron gets healthy they might. No bench play is going to be a problem with so many games mashed together in a shortened season. I like NY to punk on a majority of the East, but the West should be able to compete much better. I have a strong feeling NY will have very high totals this year. Look for them to be a bit more defensive, and a bit more mature with the way they handle the offense. I could see more of their games going under the total.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good
Pace(4)     Defensive Eff(10)      Opp Ast Ratio(3)        Off Eff (5)      Points(2)      TO Rate(5)
2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad
Opp Pts(4)       Opp FG%(5)       Def Reb(26)     FG%(20)      Assists(20)      Off Reb(24)
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Posted: 12/22/2011 5:23:46 AM
nice writeups
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Posted: 12/22/2011 1:24:39 PM
Philadelphia (41-41)(46-35 ATS)(40-42 O/U)
C:   Spencer Hawes                                           
PF: Elton Brand                                                 
SF: Andre Iguodala                                           
SG: Evan Turner                                           
PG: Jrue Holiday

Noteable Backup Players: Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young, Jodie Meeks

    Phili was one of the best teams against the spread last year. Doug Collins did a great job of coaching this team. They significantly improved their ast/to ratio and upgraded their defensive play. The Sixers were by no means an elite defensive team, but they did make drastic improvements from the previous years play. They cut their opponents average scoring by over 4 points a game. Simply put the Sixers matured last year. They bought into a system and it paid off. This year the odds makers will be well aware of Philli, so total plays may be more attractive. Philli has strong guard play, however their two forward and center positions are going to be a mash up rotation of 4 or 5 players. Deep teams who can take advantage of the sixers lack of depth may be good plays against Phili.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
Opponents 3Pts %(5)    Assists(6)    TO(2)            Fouls(5)     Opponents FG%(8)                       TO Differnce(7) 

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad
Blocks(25)    Defensive Efficiency(23)    Offensive Reb(23)    Free Throw Rate(28)
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Posted: 12/22/2011 1:39:39 PM

    New Jersey Nets (24-58)(37-45 ATS)(39-42 O/U) :

PG:  Deron Williams                                                      
SG:  Anthony Morrow (I shake my head writng that)                        SF:  Shawne Williams (see above)                                            PF:  Kris Humphries                                              
C:    Brook Lopez                                         

Noteable Bench Players:  Jordan Farmar, Sundita Gaines, Stephen Graham

    “We’ve got a lot of versatile guys who can play multiple positions, which I think is a plus,” Deron Williams

To me that is a nice way of saying we have a bunch of scrubs on our team, who are not elite at any one aspect of NBA basketball. Well it sure looks that way to me! Besides Deron and Brook, the Nets are going to struggle to find points. Not only is New Jersey near the bottom in points, fg%, and turnovers, but they are dead last in steals and forced turnovers.  I don't think Avery Johnson is capable of motivating this team to play the type of defense it's going to take to stay competitive. But it is not Avery's fault,  the way this team is structured I don't see them winning more then 15 games this year. The Nets have no shut down defender, no off the ball scoring, and no bench.  The only thing I like about NJ is the youth and athleticism they posses. If Lopez doesn't really step up big early this year, I could see these spreads getting large fast! This may be a team that gets over valued early. Strong defensive teams will destroy NJ. I can already see Deron forcing bad step back jumpers with 3 on the shot clock.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good
FG% 3-9 ft(3)

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad
Points(3)   FG%(28)    Steals(30)    Defensive Plays Stl+Blk+Chrg(29)    Personal Fouls(6)     Opponents TO(30)       FG% At Rim (25)     Efficiency Differential (27)    TO%(3)
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Posted: 12/22/2011 1:46:14 PM
Thank you very much for this info
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#13
Posted: 12/22/2011 4:16:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by zaryan33:

Under the total could be profitable for a majority of the Raptors games

I'm guessing you didn't pay attention to Raptors games last year, and apparently you're not really paying attention this year.

I'm not sure what site you copied and pasted your "information" from but there is absolutely nooo wayyy Bayless is starting over Jose Calderon - the most underrated PG in basketball. He's the one who facilitates their whole up-tempo offense. Yes, they were 38-44 in over/unders last season, but if you watched any Raptors game, which I'm guessing you did not since you sound like you're simply writing off written words from websites, you would know they run and gun with anyone. They are a very up-tempo team, which fits Calderon's style perfectly.

No. 1, they are a high-scoring team. Unders will not profit you on their games. No. 2, they are not as bad as you make them seem out to be. It appears you simply go with the general consensus, which has no clue about the potential of this team. Bargnani is a very rare breed of center who may be a bit soft, but scores in bunches. Their bench isn't bad, Ed Davis, aka the human garbage disposal, is a daily double-double, and most importantly, DeMar DeRozan has the potential to be this generation's younger Kobe Bryant, in terms of both flash and statistics. In fact, I'd bet DeRozan averages over 20 pts/g this year. Hopefully there's a prop for it...

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Posted: 12/22/2011 5:31:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Warrior_King:


No. 1, they are a high-scoring team. Unders will not profit you on their games. No. 2, they are not as bad as you make them seem out to be. It appears you simply go with the general consensus, which has no clue about the potential of this team. Bargnani is a very rare breed of center who may be a bit soft, but scores in bunches. Their bench isn't bad, Ed Davis, aka the human garbage disposal, is a daily double-double, and most importantly, DeMar DeRozan has the potential to be this generation's younger Kobe Bryant, in terms of both flash and statistics. In fact, I'd bet DeRozan averages over 20 pts/g this year. Hopefully there's a prop for it...



Wow where do I start? I appreciate the enthusiasm you have and the fact that you actually expressed your opinions about the Raptors. Unfortunately for you, I have facts that support my opinions and you don't.
The Raptors had the 12th quickest pace, and scored the 17th most points per game in the NBA last year. Did you know that? So much for them being a run and gun type team. With Casey has the new head coach it will be even slower.
Here is a quote from Casey from tuesday the 20th...
"A lot of positives. We knew the offense was going to be trailing and the defense was going to be way ahead. Execution-wise we did not have guys in the right place offensively, we expected that,"

Casey loves defense and we all know Calderon might be the worst defender in the entire NBA. Maybe it is you not me that hasn't been watching these Raptor games. They scored 73 and 75 points in their two pre season games, and if you think the answer to their bench problems lies in Ed Davis you are a moron. He is an up and comer no doubt but still years away from being a force. One last thing, calling DeRozan the next Kobe Bryant makes you look like an idiot.
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Posted: 12/22/2011 5:34:13 PM
Los Angeles Clippers (doesnt matter)
C:   DeAndre Jordan                                          
PF: Blake Griffin                                          
SF: Caron Butler                                         
SG: Chauney Billups                                         
PG: Chris Paul

Notable Backups: Mo Williams, Randy Foye, Ryan Gomes, Eric Bledsoe, Trey Thompkins

    The Clips are for real this year. I cant wait to see how Vegas reacts to this team. I really think they will kill the spread in the first half of the season. Chris Paul is so good he is able to control the pace of the game. Whats even better is Paul is capable of playing whatever pace he wants. Fast, slow, 1 on 1, motion, really anything. Chris Paul is the Tom Brady of point guards. He is so smart and so crafty its scary. This team gained so much experience by acquiring Paul, Billups, and Butler. The IQ of this team has jumped so high its going to make the idiots like DeAndre and Williams much smarter. The one and only flaw I can find in this team is its depth at the big man spots. If DeAndre or Blake get in fouble trouble, (which will happen just about every other game) Cook or Thompkins are going to have to play big. I dont think I will ever bet against the Clips this year, however I will pick my spots to bet them to cover, as well as total plays.

Advanced Stats are meaning less with all the new additions.
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Posted: 12/22/2011 5:39:22 PM
Milwaukee Bucks(35-47)(40-39     ATS)(32-50 O/U)
C:  Andrew Bogut                                                    
PF: Drew Gooden                                         
SF: Stephen Jackson                                         
SG: Mike Dunleavy                                           
PG: Brandon Jennings

Notebale Backups: Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova, Beno Udrich, Luc Rashad Mbah

    There was not a single player on the Bucks who started more then 70 games last year. As a result, they struggled to score consistently. A strong majority of their games went under the total. The general public should be quite aware of this so total plays may not be as intriguing. I'm looking forward to betting on this team. I think they could be capable of a season similar to '09-10. The Bucks should be able to get their scoring up a bit this year as well. The trade of Corey Maghette for Stephen Jackson is excellent for this team. Skiles will not let this guy pull any of the BS Captain Jack is known for. When Stephen is committed he is a killer on both ends of the court. The addition of Dunleavy and Beno is solid. It's two more legit, high IQ players, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. This is a smart, fundamentally sound, grind it out kinda team. The Bucks are not going to blow many teams out this year, but if the spread is between 1-4 I think this team can cover most of them. If Bogut plays the way he was in 09-10 then look out!

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
Defensive Efficiency(4)       Opponents Points(3)              Opponents FG%(6)            Opponents 3Pt FG%(2)           Opponents TO(4)            Defensive Reb(8)            TO(10)

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad:
Pace(25)    Offensive Efficiency(30)    Points(30)    FG%(30)          Ast(27)              Offensive Reb(22)
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#17
Posted: 12/22/2011 5:46:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Warrior_King:

I'm guessing you didn't pay attention to Raptors games last year, and apparently you're not really paying attention this year.

I'm not sure what site you copied and pasted your "information" from but there is absolutely nooo wayyy Bayless is starting over Jose Calderon - the most underrated PG in basketball. He's the one who facilitates their whole up-tempo offense. Yes, they were 38-44 in over/unders last season, but if you watched any Raptors game, which I'm guessing you did not since you sound like you're simply writing off written words from websites

All original content on my end. Only thing i copy is the stats from last season.

And more thing. Bayliss started the pre seaon and will start this season. Put that in your pipe and smoke it

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Posted: 12/22/2011 5:57:21 PM
Memphis Grizzlies(46-36)(52-29-1 ATS)(41-41 O/U)
C:   Marc Gasol                                              
PF: Zach Randolph                                           
SF: Rudy happy                                             
SG: O.J. Mayo                                               
PG: Mike Conley  
                                    
Notebale Bench Players: Tony Allen, Sam Young, Geivis Vasquez

    The Grizz were the top team ATP last year. They took that step from a middling team 40-42 in '09-10, to a contender 46-36 in '10-11. This is the type of jump one needs to predict before the general public catches up. Memphis really bought into the system and made strides to improve their defense. Even with that said, they are not elite defensively by any means. Losing Battier will effect their D even more. And losing Arthur is going to effect this team so much more then many may think. The Griz are really thin in the front line, with no real back up for Gasol or Randolph. I could see this team  getting over valued this year, especially early in the season. Also, look into playing against the Griz when they are on a back to back. Look for Memphis to struggle in covering teams who are deeper. Bench play will definitely be the Achilles heal of this Memphis squad. It also wouldn't surprise me if Gasol got off to a slow start now that he got his money.

2010 Advanced Stats (Top)        
Opponents 3Pt FG%(7)            Opponents TO(1)         Defensive Plays(8)         FG%(6)        TO(8)        Offensive Reb Rate(6)        

2010 Advanced Stats (Bottom)
3 Pt FG%(27)
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Posted: 12/22/2011 8:46:52 PM
Chicago Bulls(62-20)(49-31 ATS)(35-47 O/U)

C:   Joakim Noah                                            
PF: Carlos Boozer                                               
SF: Luol Deng                                                 
SG: Richard Hamilton                                            
PG: Derrick Rose

Noteable Bench Players: Taj Gibson, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, C.J. Watson

    Chicago was the second best team ATS last year. Looking back, it does seem remarkable they won sixty games, by an average of 7.3 points. Second only to Miami. The Bulls held opponents to 8 fewer points then the previous year. Now they have added Richard Hamilton who is a great player to have when you play such a slow down, set/play jumper style offense. I can see Hamilton fitting in seamlessly, running off screens for 25 minutes. And of coarse, Rose is an absolute beast, who can break down a defense, and make it look easy. Boozer, Deng, and  Noah are a pretty good options behind Rose. The defense under Thibodeao should be just as strong this season as last. This team is going to be good, no doubt. However, Chicago is not going to surprise anyone, and may even to over valued to a certain extent. They will go as Rose goes, so i expect another stellar season. Wont see me betting on many Bulls games, unless they are playing the Lakers on Xmas.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
Defensive Eff(1)    Opp Pts(2)    Opp Fg%(1)    Opp 3Pt Fg%(1)         Opp Ast(2)      Defensive Reb Rate(3)                     Ast Ratio(9)          Off Reb Rate(4)         Effeciency Diff(2)

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad:
Pace(22)    Free Throw %(26)
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#20
Posted: 12/22/2011 9:53:45 PM
Washington Wizards(23-59)(32-50 ATS)(34-47 O/U)
C:   JaVale McGee                                                
PF: Andre Blatche                                              
SF: Rashard Lewis                                           
SG: Jordan Crawford                                            
PG: John Wall

Notebale Bench Players:  Jan Vesely, Nick Young, Ronny Turiaf

    Washington is still in the rebuilding phase of its young franchise. John Wall and JaVale McGee are really the only two solid pieces they have. I like Crawford, and Young, but the two are basically the same player. This team is going to play too much 1 on 1 basketball to be consistently good. On top of that any sort of set play they run will either result in a Crawford/Young jumper, or perhaps a McGee/Blatche post up. The bench on this team is extremely weak. Possibly the worst in the NBA. Washington was the very worst in the league ATS. I think they are going to be pretty awful again. When Washington goes on the road they are even worse. This young, immature team also has a very low defense IQ. Nothing has changed in the offseason to improve the overall culture of this team, so I dont see much change in focus. Because Washington is so erratic, defensive minded teams are going to give this team fits. However, the Wiz should be able to keep up with those fast paced, offensive minded teams, resulting in higher totals. I could easily see this team scoring 110 in game x and then 86 in game y. I will most likely only play totals with this team. I could never put my faith in them covering a spread.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
Opp TO(7)    Defensive Plays(2)    Offensive Reb(9)

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad
Defensive Effeciency(23)    Opponenets Pts Scored(23)   OppFg%(23)      Opp 3pt%(26)    Opp Ast Rate(22)    Def Reb(29)   Opp FT Rate(28)    Pace(23)      Offensive Eff(28)    Points(21)   FG%(25)    3Pt Fg %(28)    FT%(25)         Ast Ratio(30)    TO Rate(22)    Efficiency Differential(29)    FG% Differential (29)           Free Throw Rate Differential(26)
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Posted: 12/23/2011 1:17:03 AM
Golden State Warriors (36-46)(40-41-1 ATS)(36-46 O/U)

C:   Andris Biedrins
PF: David Lee
SF: Dorell Wright
SG: Monta Ellis
PG: Stephen Curry

Noteable Backups: Kwame Brown, Ekpe Udoh, Klay Thompson

    The Warriors starting five is actually better then I anticipated. For some reason I always feel this team is bad. Maybe it's because they have a hard time rebounding. I was even surprised to see they won 36 games last year. There team is pretty much the same as last years. They added Kwame Brown, and drafted Klay, but they still need to address the reserve guard positions. New coach Mark Jackson is preaching defense to his team, but the personnel can only take them so far on D. During the off season the Warriors looked to acquire either Tyson Chandler or DeAndre Jordan, but were unwilling to pay more $ then the Knicks or Clippers. Instead they paid Kwame Brown $7 million to play 25 minutes a game at most. When strong guards are muscling around Monte or Steph, do you think they are going to be extra intimidated by David Lee or Kwame Brown or Andris Biedrins? You think the true Centers and Power Forwards are going to struggle to shove those guys around under the rim? If Ellis and Curry can stay healthy, and coach Jackson can improve their defense IQ even a bit, it's possible this team improves enough to compete for a 8 seed. But I believe the book is out on this group of players, and teams pretty much know how to defend them. Slow the game down, deny monte the ball as much as possible. Get out on Curry. Dont leave Wright wide open because he can knock down threes. Force Wright to dribble penetrate and make Biedrins touch the ball as much as possible. With all that said, Jackson is enough of a wide card for me to avoid betting much on GS, neither for nor against. Except when the Clippers are only five point favorites. Then I will bet against GS.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
Pace(6)        Opp TO(5)      Points(7)         3Pt %(2)

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad:
Deffensive Eff(25)       Opp Pts(28)         Opp FG%(10)               Opp Ast(27)        Def Reb(30)

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Posted: 12/23/2011 1:24:36 AM

    Boston Celtics (56-26)(38-42-2 ATS)(37-44 O/U):

C:JermaineO'Neal                                                                                                                                             PF:  Kevin Garnett                                                      
SF:  Paul Pierce                                                       
SG:  Ray Allen                                            
PG:  Rajon Rondo                                     

Noteable Bench Players: Brandon Bass, Keyon Dooling, Marquis Daniels

    A couple of things come to mind when looking at this team. First off Boston is a really really old team. The average age of the starting five is 32.6 years old! I would be very surprised if this five will be able to average much more then 30 minutes a game. The celts have no solid backups for O'Neal or Rondo or anyone for that matter. News has also been released concerning the attitude and locker room presence of Rondo. Things were very heated between Rondo and other members of the team during the playoff series against the Heat. Feeling blamed for the Celtics poor play, Rondo retaliated to criticism in the locker room with a tirade that including throwing a glass through a TV. Rondo was also brought up in trade talks for CP3 during the summer. So what does this mean from a betting point of view. I'm down on the Celtics this year. The team is another year older, and should have a difficult time covering on the road. I think it is important to pay attention to the back-to-backs and the west coast road trips for Boston. Also, teams with a strong bench should be able to exploit Boston. On another not everyone will agrees Boston is known for is its solid defense. Last year Boston was #1 in the league in points allowed, giving up 91.1 points per game. On the contrary Boston was 29th in the league in rebounding. Teams that play strong at the rim on both ends will cause problems for the C's. When betting against Boston, I believe you should look for a couple of these key factors. Second half of a back-to-back, a west coast road trip, young fast paced teams, and teams that play BIG.... Unders are always favorable in Celtics games.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good:
Opp Point Scored(1)        Field Goal %(1)                                    Opp Field Goal %(3)      Opp 3pt %(5)        Steals(4)               Defensive Efficiency(2)       Opp True Shooting %(3)                   Opp Assist Rate(1)             FG % 3-9 ft(2)    FG % 16-23 ft(3)         Assists(4)        True Shooting %(5)          Field Goal %(1)   

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad:
FG % at rim(3)    Turnover Rate(3)   Offensive Rebound Rate (30)   Three Point Rate(27)                 FG% 3-9 ft (27)                      
   
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Raidermex
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#23
Posted: 12/23/2011 1:55:13 AM

LAC 94 GSW 103 GSW by 9

Note: GSW cannot rebound or defend worth a pile of beans. If they play to their strengths, they can cover. Their strength is shooting.I will take the +5 at home all day long,

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Posted: 12/23/2011 2:22:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Raidermex:

LAC 94 GSW 103 GSW by 9

Note: GSW cannot rebound or defend worth a pile of beans. If they play to their strengths, they can cover. Their strength is shooting.I will take the +5 at home all day long,



Do you think Curry is going to play? Im not sure they want to risk his surgically repaired ankle. Its not looking good
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Posted: 12/23/2011 2:11:31 PM
Utah Jazz (39-43)(34-46-2 ATS)(41-40 O/U)

C:   Al Jefferson                                                    
PF: Paul Milsap                                              
SF: C.J. Miles                                                 
SG: Raja Bell                                               
PG: Devin Harris

Notable Backup Players: Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, Gordan Heyward, Earl Watson

    Looking at this teams roster I wonder to myself why they have such depth in the frontcourt, but have arguably the worst backcourt in the western conference. Devin Harris is a solid PG, but combine him with an aging Raja Bell and C.J. Miles and your just asking for  trouble. These players may be able to hold there own on the offensive end but this team lacks any sort of defensive threat. I like the look and frame of Favors but he hasnt shown he can be a stopper. Al Jefferson is a joke on D and Milsap just insnt big enough to be a force under the rim. This will be Corbin's forst full year as the Jazz head coach. It will be interesting to see if they decide to pick the pace up or slow things down. This is going to be a team who could surprise a bunch of people. I think they have the potential to be a better then some people think. Maybe even be a team who can go over many of their totals.

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are good
Opponents 3PtRate(6)            %Assisted(3)           And1%(3)

2010-11 Advanced Stats that are bad:
 3PtFG%(28)            Defensive Rebound Rate(27)              Free Throw Rate Difference(29)
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