I'm rolling with.....
1. Dallas Mavericks (+155), 10 to win 15.5
Why? Multiple reasons:
1) Quality of competition to date in the playoffs -- no matter how you slice it, DAL has had the tougher road to get to this point. Hell, I even bet that they would lose to POR in the first round! That was a quality squad they beat in Round 1, a far better team than Philadelphia. Round 2 sweep of the Lakers was very impressive as well, and even if the Lakers "mailed it in" that series, that Lakers win is far more impressive to me than the Heat's win over BOS in Round 2 of the East. Boston was hobbled, terrible offensively, and without their best playmaker at 100%. Boston is just getting too old and doesn't have it offensively. Round 3 match-ups favor DAL with a tougher road as well, and someone else pointed out that OKC would be a good preview for the two-man squad (I don't care what you say, they are still a two man squad) they would face in the Finals.
2) All of a sudden, everyone thinks Chris Bosh is a dominant player on a level slightly below LeBron and Wade? Really? I mean he has been hitting his mid-range jumpers at a pretty high clip, but its one thing to shoot those things over Carlos Boozer and Taj Gibson as opposed to shooting them over Dirk, Chandler, Haywood, etc.. Just a ton more length there for Bosh to have problems with.
3) This is the first time that MIA is legitimately going to see a well-run zone in the playoffs. What's the best way to stop one on one dribble penetration, especially for a slow team individually on defense? Zone those guys up and see if they can hit some outside jumpers. That's probably the best way to play Wade and LeBron and if they hit their shots, then so be it. Nevertheless, the Heat haven't had to contend with any sort of zone like the one that they are going to see in the Finals a good amount.
4) DAL is the best road team in the league. They are tied record-wise with MIA (28-13 on the road) for the best mark in the league, but you tell me, which is more impressive -- road wins in the East or road wins in the West? I feel like the West, as a conference whole, is probably 4-5 wins stronger on average than the East. MIA got to pad their road stats by beating up on the crap teams like NJ, TOR, CLE, WAS, etc. (those 4 teams counted for 7 of MIA's 28 road wins, 25% in total).
5) DAL is far deeper. I don't think this can be overlooked, although the playoffs tend to shorten a rotation. DAL can throw so many different looks at teams that it is amazing, IMO. They can go big, small, fast, defense, etc.. MIA just doesn't have that team wide versatility to play whatever style may be needed.
6) Dirk is, in my mind, completely unguardable right now. No one on Miami has the length or quickness to stop him. He'll shoot right over the top of LeBron or whoever else they put on him, and since 2006, he's become much stronger physically and is able to catch the ball wherever he wants on the court. I think Haslem's 2006 success against Dirk can all but be thrown out given Dirk's growth over that time period and Haslem's return from injury.
7) Call me crazy, but I don't think Wade is physically right. He looked non-existent out there near the end of the CHI series and my gut says his injury is far more extensive than is being let on. On the other side, DAL is completely healthy in all respect save Beaubois.
8) DAL ball movement is probably the best in the league, and it should give the Heat fits if they bring doubles onto Dirk right when he catches the ball. They have far better shooters than CHI, BOS, and PHI altogether as a whole.
The only reason I'm not going more than 10 units on this (which I think has significant value for the reasons set forth above) is because I can't cap the refs and how many times they send LeBron and Wade to the line. If those two combined average 30+ FTs a game, then kiss this Dallas bet goodbye.
I've seen a lot of guys I greatly respect favoring the Heat for this series, so I know there are definitely reasons to back MIA. With a lot of the statistical evidence, I think one needs to remember the difference in talent level in the respective conferences. Those numbers should not be taken solely at face value, certain "strength of schedule" adjustments should come into play.