Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
22 - 17@ 56% for +3.3 Units
Wed 05/18
#1: Chicago Bulls -2
#2: UNDER 181.5 MIA/CHI
Hey fellas...Did another podcast.
Hope you all enjoy:
I think it's pretty obvious by now that Chicago Bulls are a tough match-up for the Heat. Bulls' major strengths is exactly where Miami is at its weakest: superstar PG; size in the post; and deep bench. Some people might compare Bulls to the Celtics, but I'd disagree. The defensive scheme might be similar but the personnel is very different.
I) Rondo is a dynamic play-maker, and I truly believe that if he hadn't gotten hurt in game 3, that series would have gone 7 games. That being said, Rose is much better regardless.
II) From the standpoint of 'size', Celtics really missed Perkins in the playoffs. He would have been a difference maker against a team like Miami. Without him in there, Miami out-rebounded Boston in 4 of the 5 games of the series. Consequently, their one loss came in game 3, when Boston had a small edge in that department. I want to point out that Boston was 30th (last place) in terms of ORB% this season. Bulls, were #2 in that department. Big difference.
III) Finally depth. If a team is given a nickname to its bench-players, aka as the 'Bench MOB', then they must be doing 'something' right. I'll take Taj-mahal, Asik, K-Thomas, Korver, Brewer, and Watson over Boston's bench any day of the week.
Bottom line is that Bulls are a much better team than Boston, and consequently, I feel they are a better team than Miami for these 3 main reasons above.
Bulls went 3-0 against the Heat during the regular season. Some will argue that Miami is playing much better in the playoffs than they did in the regular season. Sure, that might be true, but the same thing could be said about Chicago as well. Don't believe me? Well, looking at those 3 regular-season games against Miami, Chicago out-rebounded the Heat in all 3 (by 11 per game), had 13 more offensive boards (4.3 more per game), attempted 16 more FG's (5.3 more per game) while only shooting 2.6 less FT's on average, had the same number of TO's, and 8 more assists. All in all, Bulls were the better team in those meetings. That being said, all 3 of those contests were very close, with Chicago winning all three by 8 points total. Now in game 1 of this playoff-series, the winning margin was 'slightly' higher. How did this happen? Well, the Bulls held a rebounding margin of 12 and a ridiculous 19 to 6 advantage on the offensive boards. They attempted 19 more FG's, 5 more FT's, and made 7 more 3-pointers. They also had 12 more assists (23 to 11) and committed 7 less TO's. They flat-out dominated the game, or as my buddy Drew likes to say, the Bulls 'dropped the hammer' on Miami. Especially in the 2nd half, when Miami's starters just couldn't sustain the same level of intensity, due to ineffectiveness of their bench. To me, Bulls are just a better 'team' at this point of the season, and I see no reason why I shouldn't back them again at home.
* Bulls are 42-6 at home this season. (88%)
* Miami is 30-16 on the road. (65%)
* Bulls are 6-1 SU as a home favorite of 3 points or less. (86%)
* Miami is 2-6 SU as a road underdog of 3 points or less. (25%)
* Bulls are 6-1 SU at home in the playoffs (86%)
* Miami is 2-2 SU on the road in the playoffs (50%)
In addition to Bulls winning, I like this game to stay under the point total. In game 1, Miami shot 47% from the field while the Bulls shot 44%, and still the total ended up at 185. Obviously a ridiculous number of second-chance opportunities for Chicago, was one major factor leading to this total going over. The books actually adjusted this total by raising it by 1. I think it's a mistake. I see Miami making necessary adjustments to minimize the number of offensive boards for the Bulls. They won't completely eliminate Chicago's advantage in that area, but I'd expect Bulls to get less than 19 offensive boards in game 2. In addition, both Chicago and Miami shot a much higher percentage from the field than one would expect from teams going up against top 5 defenses. I expect this one to be a much slower, defensive grind as both teams will shoot in the low 40's from the field. The O/U was 4-10 in the last 14 meetings between these teams and 2-6 in the last 8 in Chicago. LeBron said that points will be at 'premium' in this series. Well, in game 2 they will be.
Bulls win 90-83
Good luck!
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
22 - 17@ 56% for +3.3 Units
Wed 05/18
#1: Chicago Bulls -2
#2: UNDER 181.5 MIA/CHI
Hey fellas...Did another podcast.
Hope you all enjoy:
I think it's pretty obvious by now that Chicago Bulls are a tough match-up for the Heat. Bulls' major strengths is exactly where Miami is at its weakest: superstar PG; size in the post; and deep bench. Some people might compare Bulls to the Celtics, but I'd disagree. The defensive scheme might be similar but the personnel is very different.
I) Rondo is a dynamic play-maker, and I truly believe that if he hadn't gotten hurt in game 3, that series would have gone 7 games. That being said, Rose is much better regardless.
II) From the standpoint of 'size', Celtics really missed Perkins in the playoffs. He would have been a difference maker against a team like Miami. Without him in there, Miami out-rebounded Boston in 4 of the 5 games of the series. Consequently, their one loss came in game 3, when Boston had a small edge in that department. I want to point out that Boston was 30th (last place) in terms of ORB% this season. Bulls, were #2 in that department. Big difference.
III) Finally depth. If a team is given a nickname to its bench-players, aka as the 'Bench MOB', then they must be doing 'something' right. I'll take Taj-mahal, Asik, K-Thomas, Korver, Brewer, and Watson over Boston's bench any day of the week.
Bottom line is that Bulls are a much better team than Boston, and consequently, I feel they are a better team than Miami for these 3 main reasons above.
Bulls went 3-0 against the Heat during the regular season. Some will argue that Miami is playing much better in the playoffs than they did in the regular season. Sure, that might be true, but the same thing could be said about Chicago as well. Don't believe me? Well, looking at those 3 regular-season games against Miami, Chicago out-rebounded the Heat in all 3 (by 11 per game), had 13 more offensive boards (4.3 more per game), attempted 16 more FG's (5.3 more per game) while only shooting 2.6 less FT's on average, had the same number of TO's, and 8 more assists. All in all, Bulls were the better team in those meetings. That being said, all 3 of those contests were very close, with Chicago winning all three by 8 points total. Now in game 1 of this playoff-series, the winning margin was 'slightly' higher. How did this happen? Well, the Bulls held a rebounding margin of 12 and a ridiculous 19 to 6 advantage on the offensive boards. They attempted 19 more FG's, 5 more FT's, and made 7 more 3-pointers. They also had 12 more assists (23 to 11) and committed 7 less TO's. They flat-out dominated the game, or as my buddy Drew likes to say, the Bulls 'dropped the hammer' on Miami. Especially in the 2nd half, when Miami's starters just couldn't sustain the same level of intensity, due to ineffectiveness of their bench. To me, Bulls are just a better 'team' at this point of the season, and I see no reason why I shouldn't back them again at home.
* Bulls are 42-6 at home this season. (88%)
* Miami is 30-16 on the road. (65%)
* Bulls are 6-1 SU as a home favorite of 3 points or less. (86%)
* Miami is 2-6 SU as a road underdog of 3 points or less. (25%)
* Bulls are 6-1 SU at home in the playoffs (86%)
* Miami is 2-2 SU on the road in the playoffs (50%)
In addition to Bulls winning, I like this game to stay under the point total. In game 1, Miami shot 47% from the field while the Bulls shot 44%, and still the total ended up at 185. Obviously a ridiculous number of second-chance opportunities for Chicago, was one major factor leading to this total going over. The books actually adjusted this total by raising it by 1. I think it's a mistake. I see Miami making necessary adjustments to minimize the number of offensive boards for the Bulls. They won't completely eliminate Chicago's advantage in that area, but I'd expect Bulls to get less than 19 offensive boards in game 2. In addition, both Chicago and Miami shot a much higher percentage from the field than one would expect from teams going up against top 5 defenses. I expect this one to be a much slower, defensive grind as both teams will shoot in the low 40's from the field. The O/U was 4-10 in the last 14 meetings between these teams and 2-6 in the last 8 in Chicago. LeBron said that points will be at 'premium' in this series. Well, in game 2 they will be.
Bulls win 90-83
Good luck!
0
and I think you're on the right side as well just not sold on hammering it though
Taj-Mahal
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