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A very interesting statistic...

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I found this stat online check it out (it applies to the dallas vs OKC series)

When applicable (exception with the Finals) a team that pulls off a 4-game sweep in the NBA playoffs has a 56% chance of winning their next series.  

However when the team coming off a 4-game sweep meets a team coming off of a series with 6 or more games, the above mentioned winning percentage bumps up to 70%.  A substantial advantage for the team with more rest.  

Not entirely sure how reliable the source is, but if it is, it's quite interesting.
 
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Posted: #2

Totally agree with it.

OKC just played a grueling series with the Memphis. Anybody who thinks the Thunder isn't going to show signs of fatigue is out of mind.

With the rest, some might say the Mavs will be rusty, but this is a veteran club. The rustyness won't last more than 2 minutes, if at all.

 
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Posted: #3
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by YungMoolah:

I found this stat online check it out (it applies to the dallas vs OKC series)

When applicable (exception with the Finals) a team that pulls off a 4-game sweep in the NBA playoffs has a 56% chance of winning their next series.  

However when the team coming off a 4-game sweep meets a team coming off of a series with 6 or more games, the above mentioned winning percentage bumps up to 70%.  A substantial advantage for the team with more rest.  

Not entirely sure how reliable the source is, but if it is, it's quite interesting.

i dont think it should apply, dallas is a -215 fav and i think that is pretty accurate.

 
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Posted: #5
Yea so according to historical statistics, dallas have a 70% chance to win the series, meaning by laying that juice you have a 70% chance to cash up, which is pretty good.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by YungMoolah:

Yea so according to historical statistics, dallas have a 70% chance to win the series, meaning by laying that juice you have a 70% chance to cash up, which is pretty good.

70% chance of winning.....  so bet it 10 times and you will win 7 and lose 3. if you bet $100/bet = $700 for the seven winners and -$645 for the 3 losers ($215x3) = net profit of $55 for the $1K that you risked.

Also, how big was your sample? How many series sweep winner vs. 6 or 7 games winner match-ups were there? Like 10 or 20?  Seems like a very small sample size.
 
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Posted: #7
I like it. Plus Dallas is just a better team.
 
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Posted: #8
So take Dallas for game one?
Go Green
 
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Posted: #9
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by hoopsvader:

So take Dallas for game one?


I think the thread starter is saying take Dalls for the series.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by CallMeBruce:


70% chance of winning.....  so bet it 10 times and you will win 7 and lose 3. if you bet $100/bet = $700 for the seven winners and -$645 for the 3 losers ($215x3) = net profit of $55 for the $1K that you risked.

Also, how big was your sample? How many series sweep winner vs. 6 or 7 games winner match-ups were there? Like 10 or 20?  Seems like a very small sample size.

All good points. Not entirely sure of the sample size, but like you suggest i assume it is relatively small. I like how you outlined the net profit, but all i am trying to say is dallas statistically has a 70% chance to win the series. Just thought it would be an interesting stat for guys looking to bet the series.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by pennyman:



I think the thread starter is saying take Dalls for the series.

correct
 
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Posted: #13
Got another one  - concerning game 1:

Teams who come into game 1 of a series after 9 or more days of rest (ie. off a sweep), are 9-9 STRAIGHT UP in game 1. I do not know what the ATS numbers are, but that is the SU stat.
 
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Posted: #14
 
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Posted: #15
2004 Pacers, coached by Rick Carlisle swept Boston 1st round winning game 4  90-75 ats win on 4/25,  11 days later on 5/6 they won first game of 2nd round against Miami 94-81 ats win . Miami was coming out of 7 game series. 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by DestinedWinner:

Totally agree with it.

OKC just played a grueling series with the Memphis. Anybody who thinks the Thunder isn't going to show signs of fatigue is out of mind.

With the rest, some might say the Mavs will be rusty, but this is a veteran club. The rustyness won't last more than 2 minutes, if at all.

+

Agree 100%
 
 
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Posted: #17
yeah i agree as well..ill even take this a step further..considering what we have seen so far...and how dallas has played...i just might drop a U for them to take home the title....NO team is deeper then the mavs! they damn near got 3 starter quality PGs and there will never be another player like dirk, and on top of all that, the 2nd unit is better then some teams starting units...its just a perfect formula to break any team down over a 7 game series
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