Pending Bets:
Dallas to win West +800 (4 units to win 32)
Miami to beat Boston in 5 games +310 (5 units to win 15.5)
Miami to beat Boston in 6 games +360 (5 units to win 18)
19-5-1 run since May 2nd.. 2-0-1 last night pushing on the Bulls team total and hitting with Deng over prop and Hawks 3rd quarter
Boston Celtics +7.5 (28 units to win 26.67)
Hoping the Heat pick up a W in one of the next two games to hit one of my series bets, but tonight's bet is not a hedge by any means. I'm playing the Celtics on their own merit. The Celtics are 15-4 SU following a game where they lost SU and also shot less than 45% as they did in Game 4. The four losses were by 6, 6,3 and 2. So, this year the Celtics were 19-0 against a line of 7.5 following a SU loss where they shot less than 45%. Sure they are down 3-1 and on the road and it seems that most hear that fat lady singing, but stats don't lie. In these 19 games, the Celtics are shooting 49% from the field and holding their opponent to 42%. They are outscoring opponents 96-88 in these situations. So, maybe Boston shoots 50%. Possible they still lose? Of course. However, each member of the Big Three dropped 20+ points in Game 4 and that historically hasn't brought much success in their next game. The Heat are 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS vs. playoff teams following a game where the Big Three all scored more than 20+ points. In these games the Heat were outscored 100-94. The sole win was a 100-77 thrashing of these very same Celtics at home in the third to last game of the regular season. Maybe this is still fresh in the mind of the Celtics, but if it's not, the fight to extend this series another game will be on their minds. Game 4 saw poor showings by Allen, Rondo and Garnett, so if things reverse themselves and the Big Three struggle as they have all season in these situations, the Heat might be in for a hard fought battle with the men in green.
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