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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: So what did come first: the Chicken or the Egg? (No, serious...I'm curious)
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#1
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:11:12 PM
2010-2011 NBA Record:
120 - 82 @ 59% for +29.8 Units



Wed, 03/23


#1: Philadelphia 76ers -6.5

Like I’ve mentioned in yesterday’s analysis of the Bulls/Hawks game, Atlanta is horrible against ‘quality’ opponents (by quality I mean teams above .500). They’re 5-12 ATS in their last 17 in such games. Philly, on the other hand, is 18-12 ATS against ‘quality’ competition, 21-12 ATS at home, and most importantly, they are 4-0 ATS against the Hawks in their last 4 meetings. I know this is Philly’s first game off a road-trip, but they had 3 days off to get acclimated and prepare for this one. In addition, it gave Iguodala and Brand time o get healthy and rest-up for this one. The fact that the Sixers are 1-2 against the Hawks this year should be enough motivation for this team to play really well tonight. They lost the first meeting in ATL by only 3 points, where Jason Kapono was the starter for them (go figure) and Hawks shot 51% to Sixers’ 41% from the field. They lost the 2nd meeting by 5 points, at home. And then last time out, the Sixers blew-out the Hawks by outshooting them 54% to 41% from the field, but even more importantly, outrebounding them 50 to 35. Hmmm. If you remember yesterday’s analysis, I’ve talked how important rebounding is in games involving Atlanta. Hortford didn’t play in that last meeting, and he’s listed as questionable tonight as well. I expect him to suit up, but even so I like this rested Sixers squad to out-work and out-rebound the ATLteam, which is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and is coming off a demoralizing loss to the ‘BEST TEAM IN THE EAST’ (wow that feels good to say being a Bulls fan!). I know Philly has a game @ MIA in a few days, but as poorly as ATL has played against ‘quality’ opponents I believe that factor to be fairly insignificant here. Bottom line: I’m probably looking to ‘fade’ Atlanta against every “winning” team they’ll face through the end of this season. And it started last night!

#2: Memphis Grizzlies +6.5

The first meeting went to OT between these squads, with Celtics pulling out a 6 point win and a cover as -3.5 point road favorites. One thing though, that was back in November and early in the season. With ‘SA’ this line should be around -9.5, but in all honesty the Grizz were under-valued in the beginning of the season. Even so, I have this line at Boston -7 so the line is fairly accurate here. Bottom line is that Boston is coming off a HUGE come-from-behind victory on the road against the Knicks. Celts were down 14 points at the half, but went on to outscore New York by 24 points in the 2nd. They held New York to only 35 2nd half points. For a veteran club like Boston, this kind of defensive effort usually takes its toll in the following game. And what do you know, Boston is 5-19 ATS this season after a blow-out win. Let me repeat that: 5-19 ATS! That’s 21%. Now, after being on the road for 3 games, they’ll get to face one of the hottest ATS performers this season in the Grizzlies. Grizzlies are 22-14 ATS on the road this year, 14-5 ATS on the road against ‘quality’ opponents, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 in this ‘dog’ spread-range. In addition, Memphis is 24-12 ATS in ‘revenge’ spots this year. The Celts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after a SU win and 6-10 ATS as a home favorite in this spread-range. I know the Celtics are fighting with the Bulls for the #1 seed, but I also love when a team like the Grizzlies is as focused as they are on clinching a playoff spot. In that first meeting Boston shot 58% from the field yet the game still went to OT. Grizzlies had 9 offensive rebounds in that one compared to only 3 for the Celtics. Memphis has been playing solid D lately, holding their opponents below their season average for PA. In addition, this team is #1 in TOV% on the defensive end. Well, Boston is only a measly 25th in that category on offense. I expect the Grizz to get their hands on the ball and win the TO battle, in addition to the rebounding battle, tonight. Add in the fact that Grizzlies are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 trips to Boston, and I’m really loving it (Sounds like a McDonald’s commercial).

#3: Oklahoma City Thunder -10

Harris and Favors are doubtful for this game, but even with them in the lineup, I don’t see Utah covering this DD spread tonight. First of all, they are coming into this one off a very demoralizing defeat to the Grizzlies. They’re now 3 games behind the Grizz, and from my perspective, their playoff chances are pretty much over. Now they get to play a ‘pissed’ off Thunder squad that lost a home game to the lowly Craptors and had 2 days to get ready for this one. Okie City is 8-4 ATS this season off a loss as a favorite. Thunder is playing excellent D right now, holding opponents to 85 ppg on 40% shooting in their last 5. In comparison, Utah isn’t playing any D whatsoever, allowing 108 ppg in the same time-frame. In addition, the Jazz are only 3-10 ATS against ‘quality’ opponents after an All-Star break and I just don’t see them putting forth much effort in tonight’s game. Okie City is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, 5-1 ATS at home against losing squads, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Utah. I expect this to be a very comfortable DD victory for them.

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#2
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:11:23 PM
#4: Orlando Magic -1

I know that certain trends and ‘revenge’ scenarios point in favor to the Knicks in this one, but I just don’t think that Knicks match-up very well with the Magic. Who is going to stop Howard in the paint? Can ‘old-man’ Billups guard Nelson? Knicks aren’t playing much D lately, allowing 103 ppg and 47% FG% to teams. They’re actually even worse at home, allowing 106 ppg and 48% on the season. Magic, on the other hand, have been winning games with their D. They are holding opponents to 88 ppg and 40% in the same time-span. Take a look what the Knicks have done against the last 2 ‘defensive’ squads they’ve faced, in Boston and Milwaukee. That Celtics game must have been extra ‘painful’ as NY were up 14 at the half, only to get outscored by 24 in the 2nd. Most people will expect a ‘bounce-back’ here, but this Knicks squad is only 3-6 ATS (2-8 SU) following a ‘blow-out’ loss this season. The Magic are 8-1 SU in this matchup the last 9 games, and even though this year’s Knicks team is very different, Magic have already beaten them twice, outshooting and outrebounding NY in each. Knicks are only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games when listed as an underdog in this spread-range, and I don’t see it changing tonight.

#5: Denver Nuggets -3.5

I saved the two ‘triple-revenge’ games till the end, as they might be my favorite ones tonight. First one is between Spurs and Nuggz. I know the ‘star-theory’ could be applied in this one, as Duncan is out, but Afflalo is out for the Nuggz also. I know Afflalo is not the same type of a ‘star’ as Duncan, but regardless, he mitigates that ‘angle’ just a tad, doesn’t he? ? Obviously I’m kidding around here, but my point is that I don’t think the ‘injured-star-angle’ is going to matter in this one. First of all, the Spurs are only 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games playing ‘quality’ opponents. Denver is actually 11-3 ATS against similar competition. Second of all, Spurs have been alternating ATS wins and losses for the past 6 games. Well, they are coming off an ATS win in their last one. Obviously this is one of those “useless/irrelevant/random” trends, but maybe there is something to it. Spurs really have nothing to play for right now, so they play hard one game (cover), and then cruise in the next (ATS loss). This team is still winning games though as they are 6-1 SU in their last 7 (3-4 ATS), but the competition included DET, SAC, HOU, CHA, GSW. Neither one of those teams plays much D, while in games @ MIA and @ DAL they went 1-1. Regardless, Denver is a ‘real’ opponent here, who is fighting to stay in the coveted (wow, I surprised I’m saying this) 5th spot in the West (Not sure how coveted this is anymore, as Okie City is much improved with Perks and Ibaka as starters). Third of all, Nuggz have the ‘triple-revenge’ angle in this one. A team that is 14-1 ATS in their last 15 is expected to ‘respond’ in this scenario and I believe they will. Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games when facing a team with .600+ home winning percentage while Nuggz are 20-8 ATS at home versus a team with a winning road record. Something’s got to give. Final point: With Duncan in the lineup, my model has the Spurs at +1 on the road against the Nuggz. Accounting for Duncan’s injury and ‘triple-revenge’, -3.5 Denver is very reasonable. Now, the line opened at -3.5 but is currently creeping to -4.5 in certain books and hit -4 late last night (I was lucky to play this one early yesterday evening). Now who do you think is up late analyzing match-ups and making plays? Let me give you a hint: it’s not the square bettors that are cozy in their beds at that time. Sharps don’t often bet ‘bad’ numbers, and the fact that the line has already moved by 0.5/1 point indicates to me that this line is very reasonable (For all those people out there who will say Spurs at +4 is a “Steal of the Century”)

#6: PENDING confirmation that S-Jax will play tonight. He tweaked his hammy in the morning shoot-around and is now (unfortunately) listed as Doubtful. If he PLAYS, then I will be backing:

Charlotte Bobcats -1.5 (Probably will be -2.5 / -3 if he’s in)

If S-Jax is out, then it’s a PASS as Charlotte is 1-5 without him.

Here was my analysis prior to making a play and finding out that S-Jax is listed as “doubtful” now:


Another game, another ‘triple-revenge’ angle. Oh and better yet, this is the ‘SUPER-BOWL’ type of a game for Charlotte. Win this one, and they’re only 1 game behind the Pacers. Lose, and they’re pretty much done! S-Jax is banged up but he vowed to play. Given the fact that the guy is a ‘warrior’ I expect him to be out there and that’s all I need to make this play. Charlotte had 3 days off to prepare for this one. They lost the previous 3 games to Indiana by 3 points (home game), by 8, and by 1. Obviously all 3 were very close, so this team matchups up pretty well with the Pacers. Indiana is only 12-25 SU and 15-20 ATS on the road this year. They’ve struggled closing out games recently, even against poor teams like the Nets in the last outing. The Pacers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 as an underdog in this spread-range and 1-6 ATS following a SU win. Bobcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when facing a team with a losing record as they’ve done really well recently against weaker competition. In a game where it’s ‘all-or-nothing’ for the Bobcats, I expect the home team to prevail and come away with a big victory.

_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFL: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFLP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 145-112 @ 56% for +$23,730


"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."

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#3
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:14:30 PM
Love all the plays today bodio except for one -- on the other side of DEN/SAS. Good luck today friend

"They lost the first meeting in ATL by only 3 points, where Jason Kapono was the starter for them (go figure) and Hawks shot 51% to Sixers’ 41% from the field"


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#4
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:15:11 PM
GL bodio


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#5
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:15:53 PM
solid writeups

yeah if i was the nuggets... okc would not be the team i want to face in the first round
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#6
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:15:56 PM
Good Luck Brother on the Sixers with you and im thinking Alabama ML. Lets get this money
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#7
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:18:47 PM
Best of Luck bodio , lots of plays today 
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#8
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:23:54 PM
You're an excellent capper. But I notice you tend to be more successful when you have a smaller card and focus in on your plays.

Regardless, BOL tonight
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#9
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:28:11 PM
Do you still like the Nuggs at 4.5?  It looks like it will hit 5 shortly and can't decide on this one. 
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#10
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:28:51 PM
LETS GOT GET EM BRO!!!
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#11
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:30:40 PM

wow big card

best of luck

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#12
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:31:49 PM
 gl Bodio I am waiting for you over in the 60% club
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#13
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:34:31 PM
Let's get that
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#14
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:34:33 PM
The 60% club is a nice place to be...unfortunately I've faded back a bit...GL bodio, you forgot the most important factor in the fading of the Hawks...

THEY HAVE NOTHING TO PLAY FOR. 

They aren't going to move up or down in the seeding.
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#15
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:45:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

The 60% club is a nice place to be...unfortunately I've faded back a bit...GL bodio, you forgot the most important factor in the fading of the Hawks...

THEY HAVE NOTHING TO PLAY FOR. 

They aren't going to move up or down in the seeding.


  If they lose to the 6ers tonight, they are 2.5 games apart with 10/11 to play?  How can't they move in the seeding? 
Please explain
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#16
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:45:30 PM

Chicken came first...someone proved it a while back. Something to do with DNA in the shell of an egg, and it can only come from a chicken but not the other way around. Nevertheless, they didnt explain where the very first chicken came from if it couldn't have been from the egg. Love the plays ... Will tail all of them !!!

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#17
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:48:24 PM
GL Bodio,  I love the Bobcats tonight!  Personally, I want nothing to do withat Orlando/NYK game
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#18
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:51:13 PM

Great write -up! Always look foward to reading your threads....

 

I like them all except the last. I think the Pacers have the same motivation (as far as playoff position) so I think they come out and win this game to distance themselves from the struggling Bobcats. A healthy Stephen Jackson would have me second guessing myself, but without him they dont have much scoring ability....Your analysis on this game is very good though...

 

BOL as usual and thanks for sharing your insight.

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#19
Posted: 3/23/2011 12:54:34 PM
i think the answer to ur question is  chicken !!!! love your picks brutha..... gl and let's enjoy and fist of your picks..
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#20
Posted: 3/23/2011 1:15:46 PM

Talk about what came first...The Grizz need to stop laying them on the road...Their L2 roadies have been horrrrrrible!...I think they give the Celts all they can handle tonight...Celts only 8-6 vs the West at home

GL! tonight Bodio

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#21
Posted: 3/23/2011 1:24:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Swoop:



  If they lose to the 6ers tonight, they are 2.5 games apart with 10/11 to play?  How can't they move in the seeding? 
Please explain



the team knows they suck....they all know they are soft

AND THEY CAN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT

philly is gonna spank dem punks
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#22
Posted: 3/23/2011 1:43:32 PM
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#23
Posted: 3/23/2011 1:44:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Love all the plays today bodio except for one -- on the other side of DEN/SAS. Good luck today friend

"They lost the first meeting in ATL by only 3 points, where Jason Kapono was the starter for them (go figure) and Hawks shot 51% to Sixers’ 41% from the field"


thanks brutha.  I love all of your plays today as well, except ONE!  :)

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#24
Posted: 3/23/2011 1:45:34 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kogepan:

You're an excellent capper. But I notice you tend to be more successful when you have a smaller card and focus in on your plays.

Regardless, BOL tonight

What's my ATS record on those days?  :)

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#25
Posted: 3/23/2011 1:46:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Swoop:

Do you still like the Nuggs at 4.5?  It looks like it will hit 5 shortly and can't decide on this one. 

Not as much as I like 'em at -3.5

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