Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
68 - 52 @ 57% for +10.8 Units
Wed, 01/02
#1: Oklahoma City Thunder -7
First thing you have to ask yourself, why the hell is the line so high? Both teams have played 3 times already and all were decided by 6 points or less. The line here is at -7 and I'm beginning to see -7.5 in some spots. Why?
Well, a good place to start is to look at the line in the previous 3 games. In all 3, the home team was getting -3.5 points. That makes sense. These teams are very even. So let's assume the line starts out with -3.5 Thunder. Now you have to account for the fact that Okafor is out for today's game. He is a big part of their squad and a huge presence under the basket on the defensive end. The Hornets are only 10-14 ATS against teams that score 99+ points per game. Without Okafor, it's even more difficult for them to stop these kinds of opponents. I would say that Okafor is worth about 1.5 points to the Hornets. So the line is -5.0 Thunder now. Now we also must account for the fact that the Hornets are playing 2nd of a b2b, where this team is 6-4 ATS.. So that's about 1.5 points, so we have -6.5 Thunder now. It also must be noted that this is the 2nd b2b scenario for the Hornets in the past 5 days. Basically, they're playing their 4th game in 5 nights. After tonight, they'll have 2 days off prior to facing Lakers at home. This is not a 'look-ahead' spot since Thunder are leading their division and are one of the top teams in the West, but the fact that this is 4th game in 5 nights should add another 0.5/1.0 point to the line. So now we have established that this line of Thunder -7 is not that crazy after all. Let's take a look at a few other factors.
Okie City is coming off a close loss to a 'healthy' Miami squad. It was a great game, but the Heat were able to just pull it out at the end. Interestingly, Okie City are 7-3 ATS and 9-1 SU off an upset loss as a favorite. I expect them to rebound here. In addition they are 13-7 ATS 'revenging' a loss. The Hornets won a close one last time these teams played and I expect Okie City to be focused on getting their revenge tonight. I watched that game and the intensity in New Orleans was incredible. I expect the same level of intensity from the home fans tonight, another factor that will really favor the Thunder here. This line 'seems' high at first glance, but when you consider a number of factors, the main ones favor the Thunder. The fact that New Orleans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Okie City, tells me that the bookies also believe that Okie City has a great chance of covering this 'supposedly' high #.
#2: Chicago Bulls -1.5
The Bulls are coming into this game against the Clippers having won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 9. Clippers have actually won 9 in a row at home. In this scenario though, I see Chicago with an advantage. First and foremost, the Bulls are 16-5 SU against good offensive teams averaging 99+ points per game and 17-6 SU against poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points per game. The Clippers are both, good offensive and poor defensively. Second of all, the Bulls had 3 days off prior to this game, so they're rested and well-prepared. And finally, this is a 'revenge' spot for Chicago. Earlier this year the Bulls lost 100-99 to the Clipps on their own home-court. It was a game where Rose had a chance to tie-it by hitting 2 FT's as time expired. Well, he made the first one but missed the 2nd, and it was 'all she wrote'. You have to love Rose's confidence as he had this to say after the game: "I thought I was going to hit them. That's basketball. I hope I get put in that position again. I know I'm not going to miss it". Well, the Bulls are in a position to 'avenge' their loss, and hopefully it won't go to the free-throws this time. The Bulls are 15-6 SU revenging a loss this year. This team makes the right adjustments and is well prepared when facing an opponent that has beaten them in the previous game. It should also be noted that in that first game, Taj Gibson only played 9 minutes, leaving in a 3rd quarter with a concussion. It was also the first game that the Bulls were playing without Joakim Noah. The team was obviously just learning how to play without their 'big man', and they've done a great job adjusting since then. Kurt Thomas didn't start that first game against the Clipps, but has been extremely productive as a starter since being inserted in that spot. I expect him, Taj, and Boozer to do a much better job on the boards tonight as well as containing Griffen. The Clippers are going on an 8-game road trip after tonight's game. This is a young team and some of the players might be thinking about tying up all the lose-ends prior to the 'roadie' instead of focusing 100% on the Bulls.
I like how this game is shaping up for Chicago. Bulls are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest, they have the 'revenge' angle, and are facing a Clippers team that is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. I expect a comfortable win for Chicago in this one.
Good luck!
68 - 52 @ 57% for +10.8 Units
Wed, 01/02
#1: Oklahoma City Thunder -7
First thing you have to ask yourself, why the hell is the line so high? Both teams have played 3 times already and all were decided by 6 points or less. The line here is at -7 and I'm beginning to see -7.5 in some spots. Why?
Well, a good place to start is to look at the line in the previous 3 games. In all 3, the home team was getting -3.5 points. That makes sense. These teams are very even. So let's assume the line starts out with -3.5 Thunder. Now you have to account for the fact that Okafor is out for today's game. He is a big part of their squad and a huge presence under the basket on the defensive end. The Hornets are only 10-14 ATS against teams that score 99+ points per game. Without Okafor, it's even more difficult for them to stop these kinds of opponents. I would say that Okafor is worth about 1.5 points to the Hornets. So the line is -5.0 Thunder now. Now we also must account for the fact that the Hornets are playing 2nd of a b2b, where this team is 6-4 ATS.. So that's about 1.5 points, so we have -6.5 Thunder now. It also must be noted that this is the 2nd b2b scenario for the Hornets in the past 5 days. Basically, they're playing their 4th game in 5 nights. After tonight, they'll have 2 days off prior to facing Lakers at home. This is not a 'look-ahead' spot since Thunder are leading their division and are one of the top teams in the West, but the fact that this is 4th game in 5 nights should add another 0.5/1.0 point to the line. So now we have established that this line of Thunder -7 is not that crazy after all. Let's take a look at a few other factors.
Okie City is coming off a close loss to a 'healthy' Miami squad. It was a great game, but the Heat were able to just pull it out at the end. Interestingly, Okie City are 7-3 ATS and 9-1 SU off an upset loss as a favorite. I expect them to rebound here. In addition they are 13-7 ATS 'revenging' a loss. The Hornets won a close one last time these teams played and I expect Okie City to be focused on getting their revenge tonight. I watched that game and the intensity in New Orleans was incredible. I expect the same level of intensity from the home fans tonight, another factor that will really favor the Thunder here. This line 'seems' high at first glance, but when you consider a number of factors, the main ones favor the Thunder. The fact that New Orleans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Okie City, tells me that the bookies also believe that Okie City has a great chance of covering this 'supposedly' high #.
#2: Chicago Bulls -1.5
The Bulls are coming into this game against the Clippers having won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 9. Clippers have actually won 9 in a row at home. In this scenario though, I see Chicago with an advantage. First and foremost, the Bulls are 16-5 SU against good offensive teams averaging 99+ points per game and 17-6 SU against poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points per game. The Clippers are both, good offensive and poor defensively. Second of all, the Bulls had 3 days off prior to this game, so they're rested and well-prepared. And finally, this is a 'revenge' spot for Chicago. Earlier this year the Bulls lost 100-99 to the Clipps on their own home-court. It was a game where Rose had a chance to tie-it by hitting 2 FT's as time expired. Well, he made the first one but missed the 2nd, and it was 'all she wrote'. You have to love Rose's confidence as he had this to say after the game: "I thought I was going to hit them. That's basketball. I hope I get put in that position again. I know I'm not going to miss it". Well, the Bulls are in a position to 'avenge' their loss, and hopefully it won't go to the free-throws this time. The Bulls are 15-6 SU revenging a loss this year. This team makes the right adjustments and is well prepared when facing an opponent that has beaten them in the previous game. It should also be noted that in that first game, Taj Gibson only played 9 minutes, leaving in a 3rd quarter with a concussion. It was also the first game that the Bulls were playing without Joakim Noah. The team was obviously just learning how to play without their 'big man', and they've done a great job adjusting since then. Kurt Thomas didn't start that first game against the Clipps, but has been extremely productive as a starter since being inserted in that spot. I expect him, Taj, and Boozer to do a much better job on the boards tonight as well as containing Griffen. The Clippers are going on an 8-game road trip after tonight's game. This is a young team and some of the players might be thinking about tying up all the lose-ends prior to the 'roadie' instead of focusing 100% on the Bulls.
I like how this game is shaping up for Chicago. Bulls are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest, they have the 'revenge' angle, and are facing a Clippers team that is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. I expect a comfortable win for Chicago in this one.
Good luck!
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