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[NBA Betting] Topic: CrazyMilkMan's NBA Tuesday |
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CrazyMilkMan |
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#1 Posted: 1/25/2011 12:41:54 AM
Denver Nuggets@Washington Wizards UNDER 211.0
Okay, now let's have fun with math: Wizards is playing 3 games in 4 night and is a 3-5-0 ATS team on the second game of a back to back night. On a 3-4 set up, they are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U as well. What's interesting is that they average almost 92 ppg on that area while allowing almost a 100 ppg which perhaps opens a case on a Denver play as well. That's an average of 192 ppg which is a comfortable 15 points below the set total.
Wizards are 6-16 O/U at home as to the Nuggets' 6-12 O/U on the road which gives us a bit of confidence with the trend backing us. Right now, using the average of both teams' game Washington (averging 198 per game) combined with Denver (211) easily averages 204.5 but that's just simple math. 202 points is taken from when you take their home-road production. Their last 5 on the other hand averages to 207. That's around 4 to 9 points discrepancy given both teams play up to it. Since both team seem to be trending on losing, Nuggets is 6-11 ATS on the road 5-13 SU and also 9-12-3 ATS after resting a day between games, we can expect say around 8 total point of error for the numbers we stated which leads us to concluding that it may be pretty close to the total at the end of the game.
Still going with the UNDER here given the trend and averages which ended up a couple of points below the set total. I also take it that the Washington will respond to the Nuggets at home given a short spread. Being a different team on the road for the Nuggets helps a lot as well.
BOL.
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CrazyMilkMan |
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#2 Posted: 1/25/2011 12:42:56 AM 
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TrustMyG |
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#3 Posted: 1/25/2011 12:45:24 AM |
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#4 Posted: 1/25/2011 12:47:34 AM
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CrazyMilkMan |
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#5 Posted: 1/25/2011 12:49:02 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by TrustMyG:
i was just looking at a under in the 1st quarter im guessing it will be like 60 and denver puts up 27-35 points in the 1st quarter on the road
Denver usually starts slow and shoots pretty bad but they still manage to put up 25 in the opening quarter. Wizards should be a bit sore with the pace of last night. I think if we're to get 60 for the first half, I'd sign on the UNDER as well.
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nbafan88 |
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#6 Posted: 1/25/2011 12:51:41 AM
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like2betmore |
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#7 Posted: 1/25/2011 12:59:37 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by CrazyMilkMan:
Dang. Posted this just before the SAS-GSW is concluded. Hopefully I get the OVER.
Tell me about it. It looked like spurs where taking a huge lead and starting to run clock when warriors keep missing shots. |
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#8 Posted: 1/25/2011 1:24:15 AM Nice work CMM.. Any thoughts on Boston/Cleveland total at 194? I'm leaning over without Shaq to slow this one down. |
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#9 Posted: 1/25/2011 1:44:27 AM  |
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disbdeja |
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#10 Posted: 1/25/2011 2:49:22 AM
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#11 Posted: 1/25/2011 2:53:17 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by CrazyMilkMan:
Dang. Posted this just before the SAS-GSW is concluded. Hopefully I get the OVER.
You got it !! |
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#12 Posted: 1/25/2011 2:56:29 AM |
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#13 Posted: 1/25/2011 3:20:45 AM
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#14 Posted: 1/25/2011 4:19:20 AM
Denver scored over a hundred 5 of their last 7 road games....
this one will b close and will depend on washington.
BOL
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#15 Posted: 1/25/2011 5:04:04 AM  |
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#16 Posted: 1/25/2011 5:17:28 AM |
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#17 Posted: 1/25/2011 6:56:21 AM
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#18 Posted: 1/25/2011 7:48:20 AM  |
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#19 Posted: 1/25/2011 8:00:21 AM  |
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#20 Posted: 1/25/2011 8:10:36 AM |
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#21 Posted: 1/25/2011 9:52:07 AM
Dallas -5.0
Utah +7.5
Will do the replies later in the evening.
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#22 Posted: 1/25/2011 11:02:10 AM Utah and ml
GL M&M |
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#23 Posted: 1/25/2011 11:16:46 AM |
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#24 Posted: 1/25/2011 1:20:50 PM |
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#25 Posted: 1/25/2011 1:45:21 PM |
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