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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Mak's TNT Thursday Takeover
makaveli23 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/13/2011 8:50:04 AM

What’s up fellas.  Twas a good night of basketball on Wednesday.  Scraped up some minimal profits on the NBA slate but the Celts really did come through for me quite large on some off-bankroll mix sports wagers.  May start posting some of those in later weeks.  Had a decent night, profit is profit, but still not to the level I am accustomed to.  Would have been a satisfying night overall if not for one mental lapse by an all-star.  A silly mistake by Deron not only caused the Jazz to push the spread in a game they deserved to cover, but it also lost me a 1 unit prop by a point.  Nevertheless, a profitable night.  Can’t complain too much.

Dallas is clearly in trouble, Dirk will return this weekend.  However, if he is even a bit bothered by this knee and his performance is affected even slightly, the loss of Caron combined with this could be detrimental to a team I thought could contend for the West title.  Mark Cuban needs to do something big come trade deadline, signing Pavlovic is not the answer.  Paul George, yet another impressive rookie from an up and coming draft class.  Toronto showed some guts last night, Atlanta and Toronto always seem to come through with the best basketball games, another thriller.  Jamal Crawford is just in another zone right now, he is as hot as anybody in the league.  I am officially sold on Charlotte.  The first game after Paul Silas took over, I stated that D.J would be the main benefactor to the departure of Larry Brown...I love being right.  He looks like a brand new point guard.  If Charlotte continues to roll with a 7 man rotation pushing low minutes for the 8 man, than they have the defense necessary to compete and cover spreads at home.  

Celts continue to amaze me.  Look at the Boston bench, look at Luke, Erden, Marquis, Nate, Von Wafer.......now just for a split second....imagine seeing this group of players on the 2nd unit for.....let’s say Detroit....or the Raps.....Sacramento......a mind darn isn’t it?  You would think they could possibly be the worst 2nd unit in basketball.  It astonishes me how Doc Rivers finds value and creates assets out of nothing.  Memphis was obviously as embarrassed with their performance against Indiana as I was, when Zach and Rudy play well, the Griz are very hard to stop.  Monroe with yet another triple double, he and Udoh were my favorite bigs in the draft.  I was obviously wrong looking at the skill of Cousins now, but Greg will be a good big man in this league for years to come.  The old men in black did it again, Milwaukee with a valiant effort once again, but the bench of San An is so versatile and effective, against a very weak 2nd unit for Milwaukee, my man Matt Bonner and his 2nd unit battalion were the difference makers last night.

I know it is silly to say this but I honestly believe I was on the right side of the Orlando game, yes the Magic were lucky to get it into OT, but Jameer and J.J combined for 3-20 from the field, Turk and Bass were just as atrocious yet the Magic were in it all game long.  Orlando is the far superior team, I would make this bet over again in a heartbeat.  The last play call was sheer brilliance to tie the game, I just love the out of bounds set plays from Stan Van Gundy after a timeout.  Love watching basketball like that...to bad J.J hit nothing but oxygen.  OKC was masterful against Houston, Brooks was unable to get anything from long range due to Thabo’s height.  Houston went small with Scola at the 5 as Jordan was ineffective.  Rockets desperately need some size in order to contend in the West.  They will be an active team come trade deadline I am sure of it.  Phoenix was lucky to get a win, it is clearly evident that they will not succeed this year with this roster.  Utah deserved that cover, some really fluke three point shots by Bill Walker and Shawne Williams kept NYC in a game that they had no business being in, both these teams continue to impress me and are teams I plan toback often this season.  What about Kobe’s knees? Close to 40 points says his knees are just fine.  Strange shortened rotation by Keith Smart yesterday.  Usually I like strict rotations but not with the Warriors.  I am just so sick of A.C Law getting minutes.  I don’t know what Smart’s love affair with this guy is but it needs to stop.  10 minutes of useless basketball and 2 turnovers yesterday, my opinion would be to have Curry or Ellis manning the point at all times and take A.C out of the rotation, plenty of more deserving players should get those minutes.  Last but not least the Heat and Clippers.  Lebron just had to open his mouth about karma didn’t he...I just picture this idiot reaching for his cereal every morning and yelling out I’m greeeeeat!! (in the voice of Tony the Tiger)  He is a walking, talking moron with outstanding athletic ability.  Clippers impressed me more so after the game, they were very professional, it was if they belonged in that spot-light.  This streak busting win will be a turning point in their season.  If anything, this game solidifies Blake’s spot in the Western Conference reserves on All-Star weekend.  Shallow TNT slate, always cautious on Thursdays.  Played the largest amount of wagers all season last night with 8, was lucky to come out with profit.  I don’t and won’t partake in that amount of action often.  Tonight I am looking at two games, may decide to go with both or trim it down to one bet.  All depends on the Minny spread.  I should be back from some business around 5:30pm eastern time to finalize my card.  As always guys, I wish you the best of luck.  Peace - - - MAK


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#2
Posted: 1/13/2011 8:50:38 AM

ORLANDO MAGIC @ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Honestly, even if someone gave me an extra 3 points on either side I still would not touch this game with a 50 foot pole.  This is the definition of a coin-flip game.  Odds-makers agree with me and the line proves it.  I expect it to fluctuate back and forth during the day to frustrate and confuse casual bettors and those “line-movement enthusiasts”  As stated above, I was impressed with Orlando despite their dismal shooting.  Turk and Bass were awful all game.  Ridiculous jumpshots from Bass who is playing with one knee, I doubt he duplicates the perimeter play of last night.  Jameer did most of the handling against New Orleans, look for Turk to work more at the top of the key with the ball tonight.  Due to the size of Westbrook, it will be difficult for Jameer to initiate offense on him.  Dwight and Bass will battle all night with Nenad, Ibaka and Collison.  Arenas may have a difficult time on Harden but I think it’s about time for Hibachi to heat up.  J.J should bounce back.  Orlando is always an excellent team off a loss but the home court advantage of Oklahoma City combined with their win in Houston offsets that advantage to me.  This game will come down to transition defense.  If Orlando sends 4 defenders back after missed shots, allowing Dwight to contend for any offensive rebound opportunities, than Orlando will be fine.  The Magic are in the top 5 in defense in the association while the Thunder are in the bottom 10 in the league.  This game will come down to defense, turnover and transition opportunities.  Orlando has the edge here but that could easily change in one instance...foul trouble.  Dwight Howard is still not a stable pro mentally, he lets his emotions get to him and allows himself to commit stupid fouls and techs all the time.  If Dwight is not on the floor for an extended amount of time, OKC could run away with this.  I’m staying away from this one for sure.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS @ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

My pups are playing.  12-3 on the season betting on or against Minny.  I have a good feel for this team.  I continue to think they are one of a very few select teams that continue to be undervalued by public perception and oddsmakers.  I am hoping the absence of Mike Beasley will equate to a favorable line because I plan to back the Tims depending on the home spread.  Last time my bet was contingent upon the status of Beas.  This time it isn’t, however the unit amount will depend on who starts at the small forward.  It will be either long, lanky rookie Wesley Johnson, or sophomore stud Anthony “The Decision” Tolliver.  I would prefer if Tolliver starts but I doubt it.  Tolliver fills in more of the big man role off the bench.  He usually comes in for Love or plays alongside him as the PF/C.  Washington will be without Andre Blatche tonight.  He will be missed for his rebounding ability and size up front.  Washington may decide to go small by pushing Lewis to the 4 spot and going with Al Thornton at the 3, or most likely will go with Yi at the 4....either way, Love will have his bib on, in the right hand a fork, in the left a knife and he will literally eat whomever is on him.  Coming of a 20 and 20 game which doesn’t even shock me anymore, Love should easily take care of any and all big men on Washington.  Luke Ridnour continues his excellent play as of late.  In his last 10 games he is a top 10 point guard in terms of efficiency...yet you heard correctly, top 10.  Averaging just shy of 15 point per game, 8 assists and a steal and a half.  Shooting the 3 ball well and limiting turnovers.  His backup Flynn is starting to find his groove coming back from injury.  Darko seems to be in early season form, coming off one of his best games as a pro (25 and 11) he should be confident and put up an encore performance tonight against McGee and Seraphin.  Did you know the Tims are one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in the NBA?  #3 behind Golden State and San Antonio.  Love can drill it, as can Beas, Luke, Wesley, Corey and Tolliver.  Washington ranks amongst the worst in the league at guarding the 3 point shot.  Minnesota is the best team in the NBA on the glass, the Wiz are one of the worst at 25th in the association.  All indications state that Minnesota runs away with this one with or without Beasley.  But if John Wall decides to have his coming out party in Minneapolis, than this wager could go down the drain.  Webster and Brewer are my x-factors, Brewer for his defense on Nick Young is key, he should limit the potential of Nick going off.  Without Young's scoring assistance, Washington will struggle to stay in the game.  Webster is key because he and Tolliver will need to combine for at least 30 to provide sufficient enough offense to offset the loss of #2 overall pick Michael Beasley.  Looking forward to viewing a line, and will be back later in the day to finalize a play.


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#3
Posted: 1/13/2011 8:50:50 AM

MIAMI HEAT @ DENVER NUGGETS

I can't actually believe I am thinking about backing the Denver Nuggets.  I thought there would be no way in hell I would do that until the trade goes through but this is a good situation for them.  Miami went through the most physical game of the season less than 22 hours ago.  Lebron got banged up, Wade got hurt and a lot of role players exerted a lot of energy.  Historically, teams on a flight from Los Angeles California, to a high-altitude destination have always struggled immensely or a back to back.  Although the Heatles are superhuman at times, I suspect them to really struggle to get that second wind tonight.  Due to the physical nature of the Clippers game, it may be too much to ask for complete effort for 48 minutes tonight.  Against a roster like Denver’s, combined with the level of intensity in the building, complete effort is what will be needed in order for Miami to contend.  This crowd in Colorado will be at another level tonight, for obvious reasons with Miami coming to town but combine that with the fact that every game could be Mello’s last, adds an extra excitement to tonight’s game.  Denver showed what type of powerhouse they could be at full strength and with some motivation as they demolished the Suns 2 nights ago.  Tonight that inner-turmoil won’t matter, with the Heat coming to town, there is an automatic fire that brews in the atmosphere.  The NBA and its superstar players are envious of Riley and the three amigos for putting this together, maybe none more so than Mello who wants to leave a team that is maybe a player away from contending for a title, to a situation where he has the opportunity to play with CP3 and another star.  Mello is an excellent defender when he wants to be and someone that can actually contain his highness.  Afflalo is an underrated defender and will cause Dwayne some problems, off a 31 point night Aaron may also provide some offense and make Dwayne work on both ends of the floor.  Billups and Lawson should outplay Arroyo and Chalmers.  Nene & Birdman are greater than Z and Joel.  Kenyon, although old and with half a knee is still a decent om the ball defender.  Chris should fare better than his amigos tonight but he can no longer “lead” a team to victory as he did in Toronto.  If Harrington and J.R Smith can provide some potent offense off the bench, the Heat could suffer their second loss in a row.  It should be an excellent game to watch.  I may decide to sprinkle a tiny bit on the Denver spread as it stands now in case of any injury updates.  However am not really looking at anything too large on this game.    

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#4
Posted: 1/13/2011 8:51:41 AM
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#5
Posted: 1/13/2011 8:56:27 AM
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#6
Posted: 1/13/2011 9:28:05 AM
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#7
Posted: 1/13/2011 9:33:56 AM
Mak what does it tell you about UCLA's own Kevin Love that him coming off of a 20-20 game doesn't even really register surprise on our radars anymore? Dude has been absolutely amazing this year
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#8
Posted: 1/13/2011 9:48:40 AM

hey mak i'm back good luck betting for the season

i have bet lebron-amare and rose for the mvp who are your top 3 out of interest

thanks browndog

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#9
Posted: 1/13/2011 9:48:58 AM

hey mak i'm back good luck betting for the season

i have bet lebron-amare and rose for the mvp who are your top 3 out of interest

thanks browndog

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#10
Posted: 1/13/2011 9:54:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Mak what does it tell you about UCLA's own Kevin Love that him coming off of a 20-20 game doesn't even really register surprise on our radars anymore? Dude has been absolutely amazing this year


Kap, did you ever expect this guy to be this good when he was at UCLA?  You watch a lot of UCLA ball, did you ever expect this type domination at the pro level?  I remember in his rookie season he caught my eye all the way back in December of 08/09.  He had like 8 or 10 double digit rebound games.  All of them where he dominated the offensive glass.  I kept on thinking to myself, wow he is the best below-the-rim rebounder I had seen since Dennis Rodman.  The only reason he is really getting notoriety this year and also the reason I believe he deserves a spot on the all-star team is due to his scoring.  He has really turned into an offensive juggernaut.  My nickname for Kevin Love is "The Mechanic" because he has so many different weapons in his arsenal.  He can shoot the three, has a good post game and is the best glass man in this league.  Here's a tough one for you Kap, who do you like better, your boy Prince Mbah a Moute or Mr.Love.  Very different players, but if you had to pick a personal favorite between the two who would it be?

You also inquired in yesterday's thread about a potential Chicago East wagers at +1100 if I remember correctly.  Wasn't able to give you my thoughts as I was busy all day yesterday.  I like the potential payout bro but I would tread lightly.  Barring injury, I don't see any way Miami doesn't win the East.  Boston will give them a run for their money but the Heat should take the conference crown when the regular season ends.  Chicago may contend for 2nd but I suspect them to take over third from Orlando once Noah returns and they get in a groove.  A team to back hard after the all-star break for sure.

NOTE: To all who read my writeups today I apologize, I type very fast and I don't usually proofread my work and rarely go back and read it but today I had the chance to and good god there are a lot of mistakes, apart from the abundant amount of spelling and grammatical errors one thing I would like to correct is the Greg Monroe stats.  I think this is the 2nd time I have stated triple-double instead of double-double...Mak does know the difference.  GM got his 4th straight last night.  A young rook to watch out for.  I won't be around for a while, will be back in the early evening to finalize the card and respond to any questions.  Peace out Kap, gents - - - MAK

         
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#11
Posted: 1/13/2011 10:23:57 AM
Hey Mak, came across your threads a few days ago and loved reading your insights so much that i even went back to the first post of this season and read nearly everything up 'till now.

Thanks for all the work you put into this forum. People like you and your kindness to others is the reason why Covers is still an asset to us all.
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#12
Posted: 1/13/2011 10:53:10 AM
Totall agree with the thread above. I havent been on long but definitely value your insight. Love your write ups. I agree with you on all games. Denver beating the Heattles <-- lol and Minnesota and K-love rolling over Da Wiz. Add something to your Heat Nuggets writeup. Bosh never carried the Raptors. They are really not that much worse without him. I would rather Bosh take all the shots and be the leading scorer than Wade or James. He is a very overrated player. Thats why with Wade and James banged up I think the Nuggets will roll tonight.  Keep up the good work!!!
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#13
Posted: 1/13/2011 10:56:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Mak what does it tell you about UCLA's own Kevin Love that him coming off of a 20-20 game doesn't even really register surprise on our radars anymore? Dude has been absolutely amazing this year


The guy has more 20-20's so far this year (6) than Dwight Howard had all of last year and he's probably not going to be voted into the All-Star game.  How stupid is that?!

Pardon the pun, but he's getting no love.
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#14
Posted: 1/13/2011 11:01:21 AM
nice write ups money mak
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#15
Posted: 1/13/2011 11:17:12 AM
I'd love to go with the t wolves but I can't go against a team fighting for it's first road W. 
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#16
Posted: 1/13/2011 11:17:47 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kimoinsd808:



The guy has more 20-20's so far this year (6) than Dwight Howard had all of last year and he's probably not going to be voted into the All-Star game.  How stupid is that?!

Pardon the pun, but he's getting no love.

 

Its because hes white!!! lol

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#17
Posted: 1/13/2011 11:19:50 AM
Good luck Mak. 
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#18
Posted: 1/13/2011 11:21:04 AM
Minny -4 Mak.  What say you?  I think we are the few who have the intestinal fortitude to bet the Wolves.  I don't think the Wizzard's offensive explosion will carry over into this game.  I think the Wolves will do what they have been doing the past few games and focus on  keeping their opponents under 100 and get this victory.
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#19
Posted: 1/13/2011 11:25:08 AM

Mak---  I finally had some time too read your thread     

    Great insight __   Tonights a small card and I think your right about tonights game...

   Lebron will play but with a sore ankle-- I might sit this one out  as well

   I am playing the Magic tonight at -1 -- good luck

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#20
Posted: 1/13/2011 11:30:46 AM
GL tonight Mak
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#21
Posted: 1/13/2011 11:45:51 AM
hey first time ive read your write ups,great info and insight. those are not easy games to cap but you did a great job breaking down these games.
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#22
Posted: 1/13/2011 12:30:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by makaveli23:

MIAMI HEAT @ DENVER NUGGETS

I can't actually believe I am thinking about backing the Denver Nuggets.  I thought there would be no way in hell I would do that until the trade goes through but this is a good situation for them.  Miami went through the most physical game of the season less than 22 hours ago.  Lebron got banged up, Wade got hurt and a lot of role players exerted a lot of energy.  Historically, teams on a flight from Los Angeles California, to a high-altitude destination have always struggled immensely or a back to back.  Although the Heatles are superhuman at times, I suspect them to really struggle to get that second wind tonight.  Due to the physical nature of the Clippers game, it may be too much to ask for complete effort for 48 minutes tonight.  Against a roster like Denver’s, combined with the level of intensity in the building, complete effort is what will be needed in order for Miami to contend.  This crowd in Colorado will be at another level tonight, for obvious reasons with Miami coming to town but combine that with the fact that every game could be Mello’s last, adds an extra excitement to tonight’s game.  Denver showed what type of powerhouse they could be at full strength and with some motivation as they demolished the Suns 2 nights ago.  Tonight that inner-turmoil won’t matter, with the Heat coming to town, there is an automatic fire that brews in the atmosphere.  The NBA and its superstar players are envious of Riley and the three amigos for putting this together, maybe none more so than Mello who wants to leave a team that is maybe a player away from contending for a title, to a situation where he has the opportunity to play with CP3 and another star.  Mello is an excellent defender when he wants to be and someone that can actually contain his highness.  Afflalo is an underrated defender and will cause Dwayne some problems, off a 31 point night Aaron may also provide some offense and make Dwayne work on both ends of the floor.  Billups and Lawson should outplay Arroyo and Chalmers.  Nene & Birdman are greater than Z and Joel.  Kenyon, although old and with half a knee is still a decent om the ball defender.  Chris should fare better than his amigos tonight but he can no longer “lead” a team to victory as he did in Toronto.  If Harrington and J.R (Sweesh) Smith can provide some potent offense off the bench, the Heat could suffer their second loss in a row.  It should be an excellent game to watch.  I may decide to sprinkle a tiny bit on the Denver spread as it stands now in case of any injury updates.  However am not really looking at anything too large on this game.    



...the DON......
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#23
Posted: 1/13/2011 12:38:19 PM
I think Love is going to get in.  C's in West are absolutely horrendous.  Ming is top voter so Stern gets to pick replacement & HC starter.  I think they're going to pick only 1 C (Jefferson or Bynum) and then have Gasol/Love play some C in game.

Would be travesty to pick TD over Love.  TD is Top 3 PF ever but not over Love this yr.

Thinking... 
Kobe/Paul; Deron/Nash/Westbrook
Durant/Melo; Gasol/Dirk/Griffin/Love
Jefferson or Bynum

SOL...  Ellis/Randolph (20/13 ave)
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#24
Posted: 1/13/2011 12:40:40 PM
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#25
Posted: 1/13/2011 1:30:34 PM
BOL mak with your plays.
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