Posted:
#1
NBA YTD: 224-154-9
This week: 6-4-1
Monday: 1-2-1
Chalky Tuesday.
Here's a no brainer. San Antonio Spurs -5.0. And probably the UNDER 208.5 because the Spurs are so used in containing Amare's offensive production. As long as the man does not score 30+ the total goes under. That's probably the insight you need here.
Bucks has kept it close against the Heat in their first game. They will again keep the game from going fast paced and so I feel that they may actually have a chance here. Then again, the Bobcats were in a pretty much same situation with a key player out and still managed to keep the Heat from destroying them in the 3rd quarter. I'm also worried that the Heat are more complacent at home and is not really into blowing out teams (6-12 ATS at home). I'm taking my chance on the Miami Heat -10.5. Notice that with Brandon Jennings out of the lineup (for 6 games now), the Bucks has dropped 3 games at an average defeat of 18 points (13 against Chicago, 15 against Atlanta and 26 to Portland). The most the Bucks were able to score was 98 against the Lakers and 99 against the Mavs. Heat defensive efficiency is 3rd in the league and only allowing 93.1ppg at home. I believe we'll see more like a MIA@CHA scoring where the Heat wins less than 14 or 15 and have the total at around 178ish. Bucks is number 6 in defensive efficiency allowing only 92.5ppg and a stingy 86.0ppg their last 5. The UNDER 183.5 is not so bad if you look at those numbers.
Bayless and Bargnani is expected to play against the Bulls and I'm pretty positive they won't be a factor just yet (as most coming from an injury would be). I'm taking the Chicago Bulls -9.0 because they are crazy good at home and Toronto has no answer for Carlos Boozer. Chicago is also 2nd in defensive efficiency and Toronto has always folded against those in the top 10. DeRozan is a surprise stat stuffer without Bargnani and it would be interesting to see how they would pair up. Overall, Bulls got this as they have advantage in every position except the 2 guard. If Toronto runs their pace, it would be dangerous since Derrick Rose thrives in fast paces and is a better scorer at home.
Good spot to fade the Grizzlies after winning in Los Angeles. Oklahoma City is also coming off a loss to the hot Spurs. Although they are only 10-6 on the road, they've always played well against the Grizzlies. Last season they won the series 3-1 and Kevin Durant averages 33ppg against them. In their last game, he dropped 31 on them with the emerging Westbrook almost getting a triple double in that 9-point win. I like them to do a number again on the Grizzlies and escape with more than a two point win. Taking Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5.
Fading the Queens even if Atlanta looks ahead the next day to the Utah game. Atlanta Hawks -6.0.
I got this feeling the Lakers are still in hibernation mode. Detroit loves showing up on big games and almost escaped with a SU win in Utah but was miserable down the stretch. Last game of a 3 game road trip and I'm biting. Detroit Pistons +13.0. That's way too much for the Lakers. At the rate they are playing, Kobe would need to summon another series of 50-point game to get them going again.
BOL.
This week: 6-4-1
Monday: 1-2-1
Chalky Tuesday.
Here's a no brainer. San Antonio Spurs -5.0. And probably the UNDER 208.5 because the Spurs are so used in containing Amare's offensive production. As long as the man does not score 30+ the total goes under. That's probably the insight you need here.
Bucks has kept it close against the Heat in their first game. They will again keep the game from going fast paced and so I feel that they may actually have a chance here. Then again, the Bobcats were in a pretty much same situation with a key player out and still managed to keep the Heat from destroying them in the 3rd quarter. I'm also worried that the Heat are more complacent at home and is not really into blowing out teams (6-12 ATS at home). I'm taking my chance on the Miami Heat -10.5. Notice that with Brandon Jennings out of the lineup (for 6 games now), the Bucks has dropped 3 games at an average defeat of 18 points (13 against Chicago, 15 against Atlanta and 26 to Portland). The most the Bucks were able to score was 98 against the Lakers and 99 against the Mavs. Heat defensive efficiency is 3rd in the league and only allowing 93.1ppg at home. I believe we'll see more like a MIA@CHA scoring where the Heat wins less than 14 or 15 and have the total at around 178ish. Bucks is number 6 in defensive efficiency allowing only 92.5ppg and a stingy 86.0ppg their last 5. The UNDER 183.5 is not so bad if you look at those numbers.
Bayless and Bargnani is expected to play against the Bulls and I'm pretty positive they won't be a factor just yet (as most coming from an injury would be). I'm taking the Chicago Bulls -9.0 because they are crazy good at home and Toronto has no answer for Carlos Boozer. Chicago is also 2nd in defensive efficiency and Toronto has always folded against those in the top 10. DeRozan is a surprise stat stuffer without Bargnani and it would be interesting to see how they would pair up. Overall, Bulls got this as they have advantage in every position except the 2 guard. If Toronto runs their pace, it would be dangerous since Derrick Rose thrives in fast paces and is a better scorer at home.
Good spot to fade the Grizzlies after winning in Los Angeles. Oklahoma City is also coming off a loss to the hot Spurs. Although they are only 10-6 on the road, they've always played well against the Grizzlies. Last season they won the series 3-1 and Kevin Durant averages 33ppg against them. In their last game, he dropped 31 on them with the emerging Westbrook almost getting a triple double in that 9-point win. I like them to do a number again on the Grizzlies and escape with more than a two point win. Taking Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5.
Fading the Queens even if Atlanta looks ahead the next day to the Utah game. Atlanta Hawks -6.0.
I got this feeling the Lakers are still in hibernation mode. Detroit loves showing up on big games and almost escaped with a SU win in Utah but was miserable down the stretch. Last game of a 3 game road trip and I'm biting. Detroit Pistons +13.0. That's way too much for the Lakers. At the rate they are playing, Kobe would need to summon another series of 50-point game to get them going again.
BOL.
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