CrazyMilkMan's NBA Thursday

NBA YTD: 186-135-8
This Week: 13-10-1
Tuesday: 8-3-1 (Houston pending)

San Antonio +2.5 / ML. Same as with the Dallas pick from before. Difficult spot for the Spurs so I'm not surprised to see them as dogs here. 3 games in 4 nights nullifies the fact that the Magic is still a team in transition. Anyway, don't worry with the Spurs playing back to back. They are 3-1 ATS doing that this year. Orlando won't get blown out but the lack of team chemistry and new players not yet set on their new role will cost them the game.

Shoot me now. I'm playing Sacramento Kings +1.5 versus the Jenning-less Bucks. More of a situational play against the Bucks than a play on the Queens. Bucks just got off a win against the Lazy Lakers and this spot is an amazing let down spot for them. They've been on the road for almost half of December and looking forward for the holiday plus going back at home should make them less weary of Sacramento team who's hungry for a win. Look at this spot as a reversal role like when the Bucks played at Lakers. Anyway, feel free to fade me here as the Kings are worst that the Grinch stealing Christmas. LOL. No play on the total as well.

Two things to beat the Heat is to have the speed to run back in transition and to keep them getting in the lane. Phoenix is a team that is not capable of that but how well can you trust the new players to blend in their rotation and produce in their offensive system can be a difference. Defense is foreign to Phoenix and with no other perimeter defender outside Grant Hill who's gonna stop Wade and LeBron's onslaught? Miami Heat -6.0 is the play. And since the upgrade(?) of Vince Carter, Pietrus adds more wing players for Phoenix they are even more inclined offensively to rely on outscoring the opponent to win games. Gortat is the only fine addition to Phoenix that's IMO very valuable off the trade. Gortat gives the Suns interior toughness that Robin Lopez can't offer. With that I believe the correct total is the OVER 209.0 though I'm not playing it yet. I'm seeing the Heat scoring 100 points and allowing the Suns to as little as 90 points. It will be up to the Suns to allow the Heat 19 more to at least hit a push here.



What do you think fellas?


Oh, let's go Steelers!!!


BOL.

Hold out on the Kings. They're +2 now. Maybe we could get 2.5 max.

Kings for sure- I'm leaning Heat and Spurs as well

Im on the Bucks. Fear the Deer time nearing. Salmons getting it together. :) BOL CMM :) lets hope rockets hit. lol. my over is jeopardized by 2 ugly quarters. but still had a good day. BOL WITH YOUR PLAYS TOM!

Like it Milkman. Smart people will stay away from the Bucks game. Anything could happen there

Heat might have the "look ahead" to Xmas day matchup? I'm leaning PHO and the points. Love the UNDER 209 better than anything else in this matchup!  
UNDER here 

Updated NBA YTD: 187-135-8
This Week: 14-10-1
Tuesday: 9-3-1

Possibly but Phoenix don't have much fire power when you take out J-Rich from that line up. Look ahead or not, Miami wins out right here.

I won't touch the MIL@SAC game.

I am thinking SAS ML or +2.5 with MIA -6 parlay might be in order.

BTW CMM...Why couldnt Deron sink the 2 FT's at the end to let us push.

with you on kings!

Agreed big time about Gortat. They really could have used him last year aside Amare. Still, teams after a trade are consistantly losing (other than toronto to boston earlier in the year after Jack got traded) and I think Miami is my favorite play of the day.

Beats me. He normally makes them all. Stuff happens.

Should I call it a fix like all other disenchanted betters jk?

Nope. Just like Blake Griffin hitting a 3 in the final seconds of the Houston game. Stuff happens.

Sweet shot by Blake.

What about Luis Scola's unnecessary foul on Aminu with a minute to go. That was my big play of the day (Houston at 2/1 ML) along with the Bulls ML. I was worried Scola could have cost me the win.

Scotty Skiles wont let his boys sleep against sac town, like the fakeshow did against them Bucks feeling  confident off a win.  With you on Heat .. leaning pho 1st Q tho. Good luck on your plays

SAS ml, but I think this will be a public play. and tom is TNT Thursday, we all know what happens on thursday nights in the nba. But I'll take the bait on this, SAS+2.5, MIA-6, and MIL+1.5. SAC just couldn't get it together, their last game was disastrous meltdown.

Intended joke?

i would have to agree with the pass play on the sacramento game. i feel there will be a let down after the lakers game, but at the same time, i dont think cousins, whose been getting the minutes at center, can contain bogut while andrew can the other way around. John Salmons started playing up to form when he signed with the kings, and he might have a good game there. not to mention the coach match-up is very very one sided here. stay away is the best play in this game.

initially i also felt that it would be a sacramento play, especially with how the fishy lines have been paying off this week. what i dont like is the fact the situation of the back to back. as you said, the spurs are 3-1 in that department, they started 3-0 actually loosing the last one. if i remember correctly, only in the last one did they play without having a good rest going into the back to back. add to the fact that they played a tough game competitve game rallying in the fourth quarter for the win. they also depended a lot on their outside shooting making 14 on 50% shooting. i dont know if i want to count on that 2 nights in a row, especially when san antonio's 3 point % goes from 43 to 37% when they play on the road.

im with you on the heat. since miami's bad start to the season, ive removed the look ahead factor from them. they treat each game importantly and do not take them for granted anymore. one thing i believe will happen though is that this game will go over. nothing to take away from miami's defense, but the heat are the kind of team that can easily get baited in a run and gun game. both robin and marcin can out play and score on joel anthony who has been getting majority of the minutes at center for some reason. im expecting a lot of 3's in both ends and a lot of foul shots at the same time.

update:

I just read that Dalembert will be starting since the coaching staff wants to discipline Cousins for being unprofessional about something. I dont know where this would lead up to, if cousins wont get playing time or not, but this does make the match-up better for the kings. Bogut is still the better player though and should be able to still get his numbers. since Dalembert will be starting, most likely Carl Landry will do so as well and that just removes sacramento's most consistent option off the bench. Landry so far has had a dissapointing season and not sure if he'll put up the numbers his team needs. If he gets matched up with Mbah a Moute, i dont think he will. still a stay away play for me, but its closer to taking the bucks now.

Gortat shoots 54.3%
New player who knows how he will shoot
Frye
At home .448 3's .419
Nash
fairly weak at home .472 and poor 3's
Hill at home .500 field goals has only taken 8 threes but made 3 of them
Robin just back recently last year at home was .601 at home
last game 5-5 but for the short season .439
Dudley started poorly but this month 38 of 74
Earl Baron an offensive disaster just taken off the team
Josh not shooting well because of an injured finger but the finger is almost healed and  last 2 games 12 of 20
the trend is massively up.
Maybe you forgot what team played in the Western Finals last year.  After this game maybe you will remember.
You see with 2 quality centers now unlike the Finals last year this team is BETTER than last years team and when you combine these players with one of the very top point guards in the NBA it is not really all that clear who should even be the favorite today.
i am going to go out on a limb though and make Miami a tiny favorite today because of the lack of playing time yet.for this team but 6 points ----well TIME TO GAMBLE