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#1
4-2 Monday. Full cards for Tuesday so let's start it out early.
Atlanta Hawks looks to be the easy play. I guess playing 3 games in 4 nights coming from South Beach will get to them. Back to back games for the Hawks coming off a defensive game where we saw both teams shoot for a combined 37% from the field. Josh Smith and Al Horford played for 40+ minutes in that game. You shouldn't take the Nets so easily. Well they can be blown out at anytime but they are improved in playing defense and in rebounding. I may be doing a mistake here but I'm backing the New Jersey Nets +6.5 here because of the said two improvements plus the fatigue factor for the Hawks. They are also not very much as good playing at home than they are on the road (55% win rate at home to a 73% on the road). I feel confident that the Nets can keep it close here. Atlanta is 2-4 ATS playing back to back.
I rode the Cavs twice in their last two loses and man they really need a primary offense. This is what I hate, the moment you stop riding them, they f*ck you over and win the game you don't bet or bet against them. Anyway, like my call against the Cats, Philly is really in the zone their last 5 game and looked to have turned things around. They may get that rare 26 point outing from Jodie Meeks but all they need is their rebounding and defensive edge to frustrate Cleveland. In both games that I bet on them (against MIN and DET) they were really frustrated (I guess they are still caught up with the beat down from their hated enemy) and was easily frustrated. Philly can clog the lane with their bangers. Iggy and Turner are two similar players that can guard smaller guys and can make stops in the defensive end. Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 is the play here against a 3-7 Cavaliers team on the road.
Books don't really respect Denver on the road. In 8 road games, they were only made favorites twice this season. -1.5 against Indiana (L) and -2 against the Warriors (W). Now they are on a 7-0 streak (6 games at home) and will open a 4 game eastern conference road trip starting with the Cats and a possible look ahead to a rested Boston team the next day. The Cats was horrible after the OT win against the Nets probably because they can't hold themselves on the road. The line may be screaming for a lot of Denver love but don't get me wrong here, I think it may just be those give away games. Charlotte wasn't interested in their last game, they are not running back in transition, totally out hustled (hustling and doing the intangibles are the things that made them shine last season) in both ends and is just standing on offense. No ball movement and no one is creating space or taking a real shot. I'm jumping on the Denver Nuggets -1.5 play this early because it may jump to 3 by game time.
The first thing I noticed is that both teams are a 4-15 O/U when you combine Houston's O/U at home and Detroit's road record. With that I'm playing the UNDER 199.0. Shane Battier is listed to be out with a Virus but everyone knows that guy is a warrior and will play. Anyway, I'm playing Detroit Pistons +7.0 here. No way they should be laying this much on the road even at 2-9. Pistons can get the cover or even lead at some point of the game when they play teams that let them score. Houston has always been spotty on defense and would have lapses in their offense where Detroit is good in forcing turnovers. I think that they match pretty well with Houston because they both have undersized players in their front court and both have speedy guards who are streaky shooters (sans Lowry).
Interesting enough, this has been their lowest total in their last 10 matchups. Let's do simple mat here. Warriors allows any team to score 100 on them easy and Dallas averages 98 a game. That cold easily translate to 100 points from the Mavericks. Now the only thing to ponder is whether the Warriors stays with them or they get beat by Dallas' D. At 204.5 I think OVER would be the best bet. Warriors lowest outing was 89 points (against Denver, Lakers and 98 against the Spurs), and everything else went past 100 points. Now that David Lee got 4 games after healing from his Elbow injury, I think we can expect him to drop his average of 15ppg. Monta and Steph can have their way against Kidd (too slow for them), Stevenson and Terry (not much of a defender). With that in mind, I'm going for the Golden State Warriors +9.0 for the cover! Mavericks definitely extends that win to 10 but will probably not get blown out (or atleast they would stay with the game till the buzzer). Both are combined 6-16 O/U home-road record so you guys should be careful betting the total. Gotta love the Mavs at home where they rarely cover last season (4-5-2 this season).
Nash is getting older and getting a day to rest in between games should be good for him. They'll a Portland team who just rid of their 6 game curse with a win over the then tired Clippers. Phoenix is pretty decent on the road even with a 5-6 card while Portland covers whenever they win at home. They play well against teams that plays fast but definitely is still struggling at the moment. The win over the Clippers isn't an indication for anything. In fact, if the Clippers were rested, they'd have gotten defeat number seven. Wesley Matthew's suspension isn't out yet. The line should be adjusted if he is out (right now at 3, i believe he's playing). I'm playing Phoenix Suns +3 / ML here. The 6 point loss earlier in the season to Portland was due to a 11-31 fourth quarter push. Jason Richardson will be fire tonight. No play on the total, could go either way.
This game has UNDER 206.5 written all over it. Why? Because the Lakers will definitely win this game and blow the Wizards out. Washington has always allowed teams to score 30+ points on them in at least two quarters and Lakers is very capable of doing so. They go to the 4th period and have the remainder of it as garbage time. Los Angeles Lakers -13.0 runs away with the win and the cover against a horrible road team. John Wall isn't the early rookie of the year contender that he was (most rookies goes to a slump like this after their first injury) and so I believe they won't have as much of the offense as they have at home.
What do you think fellas?
BOL.
Atlanta Hawks looks to be the easy play. I guess playing 3 games in 4 nights coming from South Beach will get to them. Back to back games for the Hawks coming off a defensive game where we saw both teams shoot for a combined 37% from the field. Josh Smith and Al Horford played for 40+ minutes in that game. You shouldn't take the Nets so easily. Well they can be blown out at anytime but they are improved in playing defense and in rebounding. I may be doing a mistake here but I'm backing the New Jersey Nets +6.5 here because of the said two improvements plus the fatigue factor for the Hawks. They are also not very much as good playing at home than they are on the road (55% win rate at home to a 73% on the road). I feel confident that the Nets can keep it close here. Atlanta is 2-4 ATS playing back to back.
I rode the Cavs twice in their last two loses and man they really need a primary offense. This is what I hate, the moment you stop riding them, they f*ck you over and win the game you don't bet or bet against them. Anyway, like my call against the Cats, Philly is really in the zone their last 5 game and looked to have turned things around. They may get that rare 26 point outing from Jodie Meeks but all they need is their rebounding and defensive edge to frustrate Cleveland. In both games that I bet on them (against MIN and DET) they were really frustrated (I guess they are still caught up with the beat down from their hated enemy) and was easily frustrated. Philly can clog the lane with their bangers. Iggy and Turner are two similar players that can guard smaller guys and can make stops in the defensive end. Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 is the play here against a 3-7 Cavaliers team on the road.
Books don't really respect Denver on the road. In 8 road games, they were only made favorites twice this season. -1.5 against Indiana (L) and -2 against the Warriors (W). Now they are on a 7-0 streak (6 games at home) and will open a 4 game eastern conference road trip starting with the Cats and a possible look ahead to a rested Boston team the next day. The Cats was horrible after the OT win against the Nets probably because they can't hold themselves on the road. The line may be screaming for a lot of Denver love but don't get me wrong here, I think it may just be those give away games. Charlotte wasn't interested in their last game, they are not running back in transition, totally out hustled (hustling and doing the intangibles are the things that made them shine last season) in both ends and is just standing on offense. No ball movement and no one is creating space or taking a real shot. I'm jumping on the Denver Nuggets -1.5 play this early because it may jump to 3 by game time.
The first thing I noticed is that both teams are a 4-15 O/U when you combine Houston's O/U at home and Detroit's road record. With that I'm playing the UNDER 199.0. Shane Battier is listed to be out with a Virus but everyone knows that guy is a warrior and will play. Anyway, I'm playing Detroit Pistons +7.0 here. No way they should be laying this much on the road even at 2-9. Pistons can get the cover or even lead at some point of the game when they play teams that let them score. Houston has always been spotty on defense and would have lapses in their offense where Detroit is good in forcing turnovers. I think that they match pretty well with Houston because they both have undersized players in their front court and both have speedy guards who are streaky shooters (sans Lowry).
Interesting enough, this has been their lowest total in their last 10 matchups. Let's do simple mat here. Warriors allows any team to score 100 on them easy and Dallas averages 98 a game. That cold easily translate to 100 points from the Mavericks. Now the only thing to ponder is whether the Warriors stays with them or they get beat by Dallas' D. At 204.5 I think OVER would be the best bet. Warriors lowest outing was 89 points (against Denver, Lakers and 98 against the Spurs), and everything else went past 100 points. Now that David Lee got 4 games after healing from his Elbow injury, I think we can expect him to drop his average of 15ppg. Monta and Steph can have their way against Kidd (too slow for them), Stevenson and Terry (not much of a defender). With that in mind, I'm going for the Golden State Warriors +9.0 for the cover! Mavericks definitely extends that win to 10 but will probably not get blown out (or atleast they would stay with the game till the buzzer). Both are combined 6-16 O/U home-road record so you guys should be careful betting the total. Gotta love the Mavs at home where they rarely cover last season (4-5-2 this season).
Nash is getting older and getting a day to rest in between games should be good for him. They'll a Portland team who just rid of their 6 game curse with a win over the then tired Clippers. Phoenix is pretty decent on the road even with a 5-6 card while Portland covers whenever they win at home. They play well against teams that plays fast but definitely is still struggling at the moment. The win over the Clippers isn't an indication for anything. In fact, if the Clippers were rested, they'd have gotten defeat number seven. Wesley Matthew's suspension isn't out yet. The line should be adjusted if he is out (right now at 3, i believe he's playing). I'm playing Phoenix Suns +3 / ML here. The 6 point loss earlier in the season to Portland was due to a 11-31 fourth quarter push. Jason Richardson will be fire tonight. No play on the total, could go either way.
This game has UNDER 206.5 written all over it. Why? Because the Lakers will definitely win this game and blow the Wizards out. Washington has always allowed teams to score 30+ points on them in at least two quarters and Lakers is very capable of doing so. They go to the 4th period and have the remainder of it as garbage time. Los Angeles Lakers -13.0 runs away with the win and the cover against a horrible road team. John Wall isn't the early rookie of the year contender that he was (most rookies goes to a slump like this after their first injury) and so I believe they won't have as much of the offense as they have at home.
What do you think fellas?
BOL.
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