I've had a few drinks, and am nursing a throbbing hangover. Nonetheless, as a Covers member of good standing, I feel it is my duty to share in the general discussions about upcoming games, as well as to provide my own opinions on others' picks. Here are my own drunken picks (you have been warned):
HOU +1
Why is a team that was beaten by DAL 2 times this season a paltry dog at home? DAL is 11-4 ATS overall on the road, and 7-2 ATS as a road fave. But HOU is 3-0 ATS at home as a dog, beating POR, LAL & CLEV for that record (out of 13 home games, they've only been tagged as dogs 3x; if that doesn't tell you how good they are, I don't know what will.) Lastly, there is such a thing as the Thursday home dog trend. This year, home dogs on Thursdays are an impressive 7-1 ATS, while dogs are 12-5 ATS overall. Sound silly? Pardon me, I'm drunk, might have fudged the numbers a little bit. But yeah, there is a Thursday trend. Or is it the TNT Thursday trend? LMAO. Just bet HOU, dammit!
MIA +8
MIA is on a b2b, while the re-energized Spurs, coming from a cool blowout win of the Minnesota Timberpussies, are well-rested. MIA is 0-2 ATS on Thursdays last season (losing 2x to CHI), and the Spurs are now 8-pt faves, an increase of 4.5 pts over their last meeting when it was SAS -3.5. Spurs easy pick, right? Wrong. Spurs have found it hard to win on Thursdays so far, notching a 0-4 ATS this year, whether as a dog or fave. Don't believe me? Go dig up their record and compare it with the about-to-be-discarded 2009 calendar on your desk. Going up against a Dwyane Wade steamed about how they let one slip away in the 4th Q in New Orleans is not a good idea, Thursday or not.
OKC -3
Notice that OKC has a better W/L record than UTA, and a superior record vs the West? That is no fluke. The Thunder plays each game like it's a playoff game, and as a result they're a Top 5 ATS team in the league. Want stats? UTA is 5-6 ATS as a road dog. UTA couldn't win 2 straight road games SU this season. The only time it covered 2 straight road games was when the books tagged it as a DD-dog vs PHI & CLEV. OKC on the other hand is a 7-2 ATS home fave, and 9-3 ATS overall as a fave. Don't look now, but it's on a 5-game ATS win streak, and a face-off vs the road-weary Jazz is not likely to snap that streak.
PHI +2
Both are on a b2b, but PHI has a much better record at 5-2 ATS on 0 days rest than LAC (2-4-1 ATS). Thing that differentiates PHI from the other underperforming teams in the league is that it's an excellent road team (and a very poor home team, being 0-6 ATS as a home fave). PHI is 11-6 ATS on the road, and 10-5 as a road dog (although it's only 10-11 as a dog overall, again indicative of how poor it is at home). The road team in this series is 4-0 ATS, and PHI has covered their last 4 meetings. LAC, on the other hand, is 2-5 ATS as a fave overall, and 2-3-1 as a home fave. It might be 4-2 ATS on its first game back from a road swing, but it hasn't won 3 straight games ATS all season. I don't believe it is about to start doing that right now.
BOL everyone, and keep drinking to
forget all about your gambling debts
Hope we all strike it rich against the books and their favorite customers in 2010 (heehee)