Fishy line in Magic-Raptors game

Here's an interesting thing you should consider when you look at this game between the Magic and Raptors tomorrow. 

Orlando last played Toronto a few weeks ago, IN Toronto.  The game was on Sunday afternoon.  The Magic opened as -6.5 favorites and closed at -5.5.  The Magic were without Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis and Mickael Pietrus.  Toronto had a healthy lineup(healthy in the sense that all of their key players were playing).  The Magic manhandled Toronto and easily covered the spread.  Having actually been at that game, orlando HUMILATED Toronto's defense.  More so than usual.  Open jump shot after open jump shot.  3 Point after 3 Pointer.  Outplayd, outcoached... Domination.

Flash forward 4 weeks.  The Maigc are back in Toronto for another Sunday afternoon tilt.  This time Orlando is healthy!  Well not entirely. Once again Jameer Nelson is out with an injury and is expected to miss a month.  But hey, that happened last year and it didn't seem to phase the Magic very much.  So where were we... Oh yes, Magic are back in town.  Vince, Rashard, and Mickael are back.  The Magic have won four straight.  The Magic are rolling.  The Magic just beat the Celtics.  The Magic... are -3.5 favorites?!

-3.5 favorites?!  Huh?!  A team that was without Carter, Lewis and Pietrus were a bigger favorite than when they are in the lineup?  I know Jameer Nelson is good, but cammon now.  Were talking about an Orlando team that made it the Championshop Finals llast year.  Clearly this is a deep enough team.  Another interesting thing is that Toronto might be without Marco Belinelli and. Andrea Bagnani.  They have been two crucial players for Toronto this year.  Bosh has been good, but he can only do much of course.

Honestley, this line is just SCREAMING for people to take Orlando.  I mean honestley, how could the public pass up a number like this?  The Magic just defeat Boston on national televesion.  They're riding a four game winning streak and have only 3 losses all season long.  They took a piss on Toronto last time out.  I mean come on now, there is just SO MUCH working favour of the Magic here... and when that's the case, it's burn city.

Orlando is the biggest sucker play I've seen in a while.

Raptors -3.5

love the writeups bro

I wouldn't mind taking

ORLANDO +3.5.

For the game played 3 weeks ago bookies used statistics from the last year to set up the line. For the newest game they took into account statistics from this year. There's nothing weird here. Just keep in mind that the Raptors are 5-1 SU at home this season (546:517 pts) while the Magic are 4-2 SU (550-547 pts) - this is something that will influence the line a lot, hence the Magic are -3.5. As easy as that - no conspiracy theory here. Some value for the Magic.

good luck, chris

NICE

I'd have to agree with u... but honestly.. the book has been giving away money the past few days. I make most of my wins from lines like this for the past few weeks... but the past 2 days I've been losing badly.... very badly... almost giving back everything that I've won from the past few weeks, well.. mostly cause of bad money management on my part... but still... this kind of crooked line have been going public's way for the past few days... example: New Jersey -2 yesterday...
That's why I have a feeling that the book is giving away money to public and will happen again for the next days... so I'll put extra caution on this line.
That being said... I will still take Toronto +3.5.. can't sway away from the playing style/system.

Its to make you take the Raptors just like how they made you all take the Nets -2 yesterday  When will you ever learn

 Raptors catching 3 less points (than last time) against the best roster in basketball

Oh yea I forgot this...

  Nets -2 yesterday. The fuckers never had the lead once.

Nelson, Carter, Pietrus, Lewis, Howard, Gortat, Bass, Anderson, Barnes

VS.

Calderon, DeRozen, Turkoglu, Bosh, Bargnani, Bellinelli, Jack, Johnson

Until the Raptors get Reggie Evans back they will be hovering around .500 ATS wise.

Great info mach82... at least that gives a better reasoning to the line being set the way it is...

As for (550-547 pts) thats just because they lost by 30pts to the Thunder I believe.

Nobody would take the Raptors today at -6.5 hence, 3.5. The goal for books is to receive 50/50 action not 70/30.

Raptors today at +6.5*

But it will be up for IN-GAME wagering so I'm hoping to get both teams at +3.5 at some point in the 1st half

Hope the Raptors come out strong and force Ron Jeremy to call two 1Q timeouts so I can get the wager in

Turk's hip isn't near 80% but must play because when Bargnani gets 2 1st quarter fouls their offense becomes predictable.

I really think ORL can shoot 16/31 3PT today. They are insane from behind the arc.

I knew something was amiss when I seen the spread...I just couldn't vocalize it into words.   I jumped on the Raptors and the 3 1/2 points.   Also, I like Phoenix today. 

 Ironic how everyone smells fish and assumes Raptors +3.5, this could be DD win for Orlando

I like the Raptors 

ORL are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Toronto. Plus Adonal Foyle is not playing!

cheeze stack...

You made a very good point...  Also you have to add in the x factor of the pep talk howard and the coach had a few days ago, after that the team went to boston and played hard for they coach.... Effort Has to capped when looking at these games... WHo will bring the most effort, that is the only difference with the Hornets now... I call it motivation in my capping though....  Also in the post game interview nba tv did with pietrus... He said over and over all we are focused on is toronto sunday... That gives a lil insight to the mindset of this team now since the pep talk...

Also the raptors plays no defense.  The heat could of came back and won... But they think d-wade is lebron and refuse to give him other offensive options... This magic team has too many offensive options....  Also the raptors are at home so the books have to include that into the line... But I instantly took the magic moneyline. 

Goodluck to all...

Wow. Magic are really short-handed.

The guy hasn't played this year!...

Raptors +3.5 will be the play. BOL

Let me give my opinion regarding this game and line.

We need to look at the current situation involving the teams in question.

When people see that this is the 2nd meeting between Magic and Raptors, and they see that Magic had already won in the first meeting without the services of Carter, Lewis, and Pietus. They now look at the line and Magic are laying less than this, they go crazy! and think they have an easy winner.

Again, I see we need to look at the current situation involving both teams.

When Magic faced Raptors on November 1st, it was the 3RD GAME of the season for each team. Magic were coming of a championship year where they won the Eastern Conference. They were 2-0, having won by double digits and Toronto was a team with a new identity coming off bad loss on the road against MEMPHIS after they just defeated Cavs at in their home opener.

Magic won by 9, and made 17 three pointers in that game. The line closed at -5.5.

And what do we have now?

Magic opened at -3 on the road (which is 2.5 less points than closing line from the first meeting)

What is the current situation?

Magic is 10-3, and Raptors is 6-7.

Magic is 4-2 on the road, and Raptors is 4-1 at home. And this means, the only loss Raptors have suffered at home has been against Magic.

So, Raptors have rebounded nicely with four straight home wins after that defeat.

First, This is a revenge game for them, and revenge games are huge in this sport. Line already indicated this. Magic could not open at a higher line than first meeting just because they have Carter, Lewis and Pietrus back. The revenge factor is already applied here and that is stronger than anything is the team in question has a good record (and I already pointed out that Raptors have won all four home games after facing Magic).

Second, this is a letdown game for Magic. And this also is reflected in the line. They just beat the Boston Celtics IN BOSTON and WITH Kevin Garnett healthy in the lineup, something they've had problems in the past. This is huge for Magic to be up 1-0 against Celtics and knowing they have a home Christmas meeting when they know they can take a 2-0 season series lead against them. I don't know if this worth half a point, 1 point of the line. Regardless, I personally believe when the sportsbooks started to give the line for this matchup , each and every individual who is responsible for making the line took this into consideration, as they always do.

Now, our job as bettors is to analyze the matchup.

Orlando is clearly the better defensive team of the two. They are both playing with a day rest. So, they are rested. Revenge game for Raptors. Letdown spot for Magic. Magic have Miami next, division matchup (not big of an issue, because Miami has returned to Earth after a strong start), while Raptors have Pacers at home. (No biggie).