Anybody Trying to Learn Totals?

I'm trying. I went 2-2 last night. tonight the totals in the Thunder/Magic game was moved from 190 in the morning to 196 this evening. I think the under just got roomier. So that's it:

Play Thunder/Magic under 196

.......gl tonight

I was thinking the same,so I took it Under too.I 'm trying to think some games with the reverse line movement thinking.Big line movements then take the opposite play,numbers go up big take the under,numbers go down big then take the over,however this is not a rule,I 'm trying to figure out books moves.

Good luck to us who have the Under

Trying to do the same things man and also on the play with you! GL to us

Good  Journey to the under it is. So far I see 37 points in  the 1st qtr. with a minute and a half to go. Stay in that groove, please! 

NIL

a lot of 2nd qtr points

2h will go under.  big lead

Hope so!!

Big lead = good for 2nd Half Unders.

Especially given the situation of this matchup.

1) Revenge game for the Magic.

2) Thunder played last night. Travel not an issue though.

A crazy amount of treys made in the 1st Half.

Go figure. 2 defensive teams and all of a sudden each side was just launching 3-points and hitting 'em.

I make my "handicapping living" with totals. This is by far my personal specialty and where I make my money. Take this advice for what it's worth...but I once was a beginner as well and made the same mistakes.

You noticed that the Oklahoma City/Orlando game opened at 189 this morning. The line has steadily climbed to 196. Let's remember...it's not the amount of people (# of bets) that moves the line...it's the amount of $$$$ or the person betting. For instance...you could have 10 guys bet 100.00 on the Under 189...then some bigshot who the oddsmakers respect and bets 3000.00 on the Over. The line will then move up to 191 to try and get action on the Under to make it even on both sides so they can relax and collect the vig.

So...lines move a point or 2 in basketball over the course of a day with normal betting action. A lot of times one side is heavy bet from the public and they move the line a bit to get even action. When you see a line move as much as the Orlando game....personally for me 4 points is a red flag....SOMETHING IS UP. There is some SERIOUS cash on this over for the oddsmakers to move it all the way from 189 to 196. The oddsmakers are BEGGING you to take the Under...and they got you right where they wanted. Beginners look at this as a deal. They say wow...I liked the Under at 189....EVEN BETTER AT 196!  Another think you look at is the betting consensus on various sites. There are some pay sites and free ones. Now....this prob isn't exact...but it does give a pretty good indicator of what the public is thinking/doing. If you see the consensus pretty even or heavy on the Under...and the line goes the REVERSE WAY and is still raised from 189 to 196.....RED FLAG. That means despite everyone and their brother betting the under....the books still are confident taking even MORE bets on the Under at a better deal...196. OVER IS THE PLAY. Basic rule of thumb....follow the line movement. I'm not talking 1 or 2 points....I'm talking 4 or more points....which only happens once a day...sometimes once every 2 days maybe 3. Patience is key. Nothing is 100%...and remember professionals look to hit 2 out of 3. But you can't ignore the line movement like this game.

Belive me...it took me years of getting burned and getting suckered into this. But I've now learned to think like the oddsmakers and I've learned that you're NEVER gonna figure something out that they haven't. They know everything. So....when you see a line move crazy like that one.....it's either an OVER play (go on the side of the serious $$$$$....professional bettors) or no play at all if you like the uNder that much.

Good luck on your Under boys!!! It very well may hit and I'm rooting for you! But just remember...you have to pay attention to big line moves like this Orlando one. I'm telling you...most times it will go over.

Thanks robert for that info! I'm going to try to start looking for things like that.

GG us

thank you Robert! Your writing opened up something for me!

NIL

PS: we missed this under as the game finished over 200 points. Of course, if we had followed the line movement we would have won.

What I parlayed:

Suns/Hornets under 214

Jazz/Spurs under197.5

Bulls/LALakers over 196

 

What I just calculated....was it really calculation? HMMM

I came up with

suns/hornets -under

jazz/spurs-over

bulls/lakers-under

I missed my one last night. Bet a consesus of people I follow and then did my calculating. Let's see what's doin' withe calculation.

Line Moves - The Big Lie

I've read many times here on Covers that all you have to do is wait for some line movement and go with it or against it, for what will be an easy, sure thing win.

Well, so far this year in the NBA the line moves (from the original open to the line at tip off) greater than 1.5 pts, so 2 pts of line movement or more, have resulted in the following:

Lines Moving For/Record ATS

Home Favs: 2-2
Home Dogs: 0-1
Road Dogs: 4-4
Road Favs: 0-0

Total ATS: 6-7

 

TOTALS numbers haven't been any more predictable. Of all the games where we get 3 pts or more movement in the line (from open of line to tipoff) taking the direction that benifits from the extra points of movement would have thus far resulted in:

28 wins
28 losses

OVERS: 12 WINS 18 LOSSES
UNDERS: 16 WINS 10 LOSSES

 

source of database for research: covers.com

Here's an angle that you can sink your teeth into. These numbers are up to date except for today's (Thursday Nov 19th) games:

                 <200    >200  

HOME B2B 5-7  7-3  
HOME 3I4  2-1  3-0  
HOME 4I5  0-2  1-0  

ALL HOME 7-10  11-3  

ROAD B2B 17-21  15-10  
ROAD 3I4  6-12  12-3  
ROAD 4I5  1-3  2-0  

ALL ROAD 24-36  29-13  

ALL B2B  22-28  22-13   
ALL 3I4  8-13  15-3    
ALL 4I5  1-5  3-0   

ALL 31-46 .575   40-16 .714  

OVERS WITH A 200+ LINE = 40 WINS TO 16 LOSSES .714
UNDERS WITH A <200 LINE = 46 WINS TO 31 LOSSES .575

BOTH THESE APPROACHES COMBINED = 86 WINS AND 47 LOSSES  64.5%

3-in-4 is a scenario were the team is playing in a back-to-back situation, plus it's the 3rd game in 4 consecutive nights (home or away doesn't matter, though I track both), not to be confused with the other type of 3-in-4 scenario were the team is playing the 3rd game in 4 nights but with no back-to-back, those types aren't counted in my stats.

4-in-5 is a scenario were the team is playing in a back-to-back situation, plus it's the 4th game in 5 consecutive nights (again, home or away doesn't matter, though I track both)

 

these scenarios are easy to know when they are happening. The team page for every team contains their last 10 games and next 5 games with dates

 

hope this info sparks some ideas for ya heaVin

How can a team play 3 games in 4 nights without a B2B?

DogsWinAtHome...nobody EVER said follow the line movement and it's a sure thing win. Nothing is 100% in gambling....like I said above....PROFESSIONALS look to hit 2 out of 3 and be in the high 60% range.

And lines move 2 maybe 2.5-3 points daily. I'm talking large line moves....that's a red flag. But that's not an AUTOMATIC INDICATOR to bet the game. You have to analyze other stuff...like whose the public play?

I honestly couldn't even understand the system you're talking about up there.

It's a pretty simple theory...$$$$ moves lines. Professional betting syndicates are the ones putting large enough wager down to move lines....not us on Covers.com. So....if you see lines move 5,6,7 points....you can tell syndicates are more than likely backing the side. Choose to go with them or don't....that's your option. But to says it's a lie and following line movements isn't a sure thing...that's ridiculous. Of course its not a sure thing.

The bottom line....big line movements is something everyone should pay attention to.