The Portland Trail Blazers will come of age tonight

And defeat the Houston Rockets which will force a Game 7 back in Portland at the Rose Garden.  I hope so at least.  Here’s why I’m going with the Blazers tonight: 

1.  Yao Ming’s Disappearing Act

Where is this man?  Has anyone seen him lately?  You would think it’d be impossible for a man 7-6 to become invisible, but he has been just that of late.  Since his 9-9, 24 point performance in Game 1, Yao has been held in check and neutralized by Portland.  His point totals in the past four games are as follows: 11, 7, 21, and 15.  Fairly pedestrian numbers I’d say.  The Blazers have been fronting him very effectively, denying Yao the ball.  Yao is a rhythm player, he needs to touch the ball often to be most lethal.  But lately the Rockets have been having such a hard time finding him in the post that they’ve gone five minutes at times without giving Yao touches on offense.  That is extremely disruptive to him.  Yao has to fight so hard just to catch the ball that it appears to be wearing him down as the series goes on.

2.  Rocket’s Supporting Cast M.I.A.

Without Yao being able to carry the load offensively, it has necessitated that others step up.  That however has not been happening.  Ron Artest is murdering the Rockets right now with bad shots, balky shooting and a quick trigger.  Some of his recent shooting performances have been nothing short of dreadful.  Game 3: 3-8, 9 pts, Game 4: 5-20, 12 pts, Game 5: 3-9, 10 pts.  Same goes for the ultra-shaky Aaron Brooks who followed up strong performances in the first two games with absolute clunkers in the past three.  He went a combined 10-36 in games 3, 4, 5 oftentimes forcing the issue far too much.  Luis Scola is Houston’s best offensive player right now.  If not for him the Rockets would be in far greater trouble right now.  Although the Rockets are probably better without Tracy McGrady at the end of the day, there still are some things he was able to do that his team sorely misses.  Houston has no go-to scorer they can rely on when they absolutely need a bucket.  They have no closer.  In other words, they have no Brandon Roy.  In late game situations it is critical to have a player like this, even more so in the post-season.

3.  Could it happen again?

All the pressure here is centered squarely on the Rockets.  After they’re litany of first-round exits (0-6 in their last six attempts) the heat can only be rising.  Yao looks like he’s carrying the entire weight of the world on his shoulders.  Past failures have to be creeping into the Rockets minds right now.  Many of the players on this year’s team also presided over another choke job back in 2007 against Utah where they blew a 3-2 lead.  On the other hand, the Blazers have nothing to lose here, and potentially everything to gain.  If they’re season were to end tonight, they have nothing to be ashamed of.  But something tells me they want more.  While Houston is going out there and potentially starting to press and force the issue, the Blazers can just play care-free and with ease.  The crowd at the Toyota Center is acutely aware of they’re teams past slip-ups in the opening round.  If Houston gets off to a rocky start, the negativity, anxiety and frustration will only keep mounting.  They’ve all seen this song and dance many times before.  Now here’s they’re team trying desperately to squeak out of the first round again, only to be denied by a younger, more talented team.     

4.  Brandon Roy, Brandon Roy, Brandon Roy

In a game of this magnitude you cannot underscore enough how important it is to have a player like this on your team.  A player who does everything: scores, rebounds, creates for his teammates and gets big buckets at key times.  The Rockets do not have a Brandon Roy.  They’ve got a lot of really good players, but none of them are Brandon Roy.  He has torched Houston’s vaunted defensive tandem of Ron Artest and Shane Battier to the tune of 27.6 PPG.  He will put this team on his back and carry them.

5.  Conclusion

If we take Game 1 out of the equation -- when it was apparent to everyone Portland was simply scared shitless -- the Blazers have been the better team the rest of the way.  Even though they won’t have the unwavering support of the home crowd tonight, Portland is ready to win a big game like this on the road.  The way they played in the 2^nd half of Game 4 in Houston showed me they were ready.  Even though they didn’t ultimately win the game, that was the point where they started getting physical and attacking the Rockets.  I see this game being extremely close with the Blazers pulling it out at the end to push this series to the brink. 

Blazers +5            (if it gets to 5.5 I’ll add more)

Blazers ML +190     (or better)