Posted:
#1
Well, I'm not really one for trends during the playoffs, preferring a more 'macro-perspective' of a team's body of work in crucial or closeout playoff games. But when i woke up this morning and saw Cleveland -9 @ Detroit (covers has it at 8.5 but you can get it at 9 almost anywhere) my eyes almost popped out of my head.
I don't remember the last time a team was getting this many points at home in a close-out game (i.e. a game where the team was up 3-0/2-0 in 3 game series and about to sweep which many expect to happen here). So i was curious as to whether how many teams got within the number ATS in closeout games. I looked back in all the playoff years of all the sweeps and the points given by the 'sweeping team' and my memory had not failed me...it WAS A LONG time ago...8 seasons ago, where a team was giving 9 points to a team they were about to sweep...
Here are the results and the lines of the 'closeout' games by the sweeping team' Line/Score/ATS/MOV Margin of Victory/Cover:
2008 Lakers -4 over Denver Final 107-101 MOV:6 Cover: Yes
2007 Cleveland -6.5 over Wizards Final 97-90 MOV: 7 Cover: Yes
Chicago -3.5 over Miami Final: 97-93 MOV: 4 Cover: Yes
Detroit -4.5 over Orlando Final: 97-93 MOV: 4 Cover: No
San An -2.5 over Cleveland Final: 83-82 MOV: 1 Cover: No
2006 Dallas -1.5 over Memphis Final: 102-76 MOV:26 Cover: Yes
2005 Miami -5.5 over Nets Final: 110-97 MOV:13 Cover: Yes
Phoenix -6 over Memphis Final: 123-115 MOV: 7 Cover: Yes
Miami -2.5 over Wizards Final: 99-95 MOV: 4 Cover: Yes
2004 San An -5 over Memphis Final 110-97 MOV: 13 Cover: Yes
Pacers -8.5 over Boston Final:90-75 MOV: 15 Cover: Yes
NJ -6 over NY Final: 100-94 MOV: 6 Cover: Push
2003 Detroit -7.5 over NJ Final: 102-82 MOV: 20 Cover: Yes
NJ +1 over Boston Final: 110-101 MOV: 9 Cover: Yes
2002 Dallas +2 over Minny Final: 115-102 MOV: 13 Cover: Yes
Lakers -2.5 over Portland Final: 92-91 MOV: 1 Cover: No
Lakers -4.5 over Nets Final: 113-107 MOV: 6 Cover: Yes
2001 Hornets -5 over Miami Final: 94-79 MOV: 15 Cover: Yes
Lakers -3.5 over Portland Final: 99-86 MOV: 13 Cover: Yes
Lakers -3 over Kings Final: 119-113 MOV: 6 Cover: Yes
Lakers -9 over @Spurs Final: 111-92 MOV: 19 Cover: Yes
2000:Miami -2.5 over Detroit Final: 91-72 MOV: 19 Cover: Yes
NY +4.5 over Toronto Final: 87-80 MOV: 7 Cover: Yes
So what does all this shit mean?
Well if you expect Cleveland to sweep, sweeping teams are
19-3-1 ATS in closeout games in the previous 9 playoff years. (almost all, but not ALL, of the closeout games were AT the underdog, sorry for not documenting that)..maybe not surprising to some since i only looked at victories in those closeout games...but MANY expect a sweep today so i only looked at those..but for MOV purposes, half the times the teams appear to lay down and the other half not as teams were defeated by LESS THAN NINE 12 times, while 10 times they were defeated by more than nine (1 push) if you think 9 is a breaking point for laying down.
BUT you like large spreads for home dogs, you have to go back to the BEGINNING of Shaq/Kobe championship years to get a line this high.
Will Detroit lay down today? Given their playoff experience, the points are VERY tempting here as -9 looks like a big overvaluing by the books but I'll reserve making my HUGE bet for my favorite playoff game thusfar tomorrow.
Hope this helps and sorry for any typos.
0
Whats your play??
I'm biting and taking Detroit.
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