Still can't decide if I should be happy that the Raps came back from 20 down to get me the push or pissed that Chris Bosh and Jamario Moon both had chances to push it inside the number in the last 10 secs and whiffed. In any event, I hit my 3-unit and 1-unit plays so it was a good day.
System spreads for tonight .....
MIL -5.5 TOR -1.2 NJ -1.7 NO -5.8 POR -2.2 UTA -6.6
Picks to come later.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YESTERDAY: 2-1-1 (+3.0 units)
Still can't decide if I should be happy that the Raps came back from 20 down to get me the push or pissed that Chris Bosh and Jamario Moon both had chances to push it inside the number in the last 10 secs and whiffed. In any event, I hit my 3-unit and 1-unit plays so it was a good day.
System spreads for tonight .....
MIL -5.5 TOR -1.2 NJ -1.7 NO -5.8 POR -2.2 UTA -6.6
So stiverino you're telling me you're comfortable watching this game tonight and possibly thinking by the end of it, "WHY DIDN'T I HAVE THE BALLS TO PULL THE TRIGGER?"
If you believe in your system and it says the Raps could win this SU, then throw down 1/2 unit or even a 1/4 unit. I'm not putting my house on the ML play but my system says there's real value getting that kind of price in this spot.
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So stiverino you're telling me you're comfortable watching this game tonight and possibly thinking by the end of it, "WHY DIDN'T I HAVE THE BALLS TO PULL THE TRIGGER?"
If you believe in your system and it says the Raps could win this SU, then throw down 1/2 unit or even a 1/4 unit. I'm not putting my house on the ML play but my system says there's real value getting that kind of price in this spot.
hi Teskey, i've just read Your post from 9/1 but i don't understand it. I'm not as good in english as i thought. For example today's game. Did You count that Millwakue should win this more than 5,5 points so You play Millwakuje-2,5
and for example Utah has -6,6 but the spread is +10 for Indiana so You play indiana?
Am i right ? Is it flat stake, 1unit each game or what?
Thank You B.O.L from Poland ;)
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hi Teskey, i've just read Your post from 9/1 but i don't understand it. I'm not as good in english as i thought. For example today's game. Did You count that Millwakue should win this more than 5,5 points so You play Millwakuje-2,5
and for example Utah has -6,6 but the spread is +10 for Indiana so You play indiana?
Am i right ? Is it flat stake, 1unit each game or what?
The MIL -5.5 means that my system would have MIL favoured by 5.5 points. If the line is at -2.5 then I would suggest a 1-unit play on MIL.
the UTA -6.6 would USUALLY mean a play on Indiana but there are also certain situations that make me pass on a game with a big difference between my system's line and the book's line. Indiana falls into one of these situations so they become a "no play" for my system.
In terms of units, the bigger the difference the more units I play it for. Example: Toronto tonight. The difference between my line and the book's line is over 11 pts so this is a 10-unit play for me (meaning I'm laying 11 units to win 10).
Not sure I can explain it any clearer than that. Hope it helps.
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Sith .....
The MIL -5.5 means that my system would have MIL favoured by 5.5 points. If the line is at -2.5 then I would suggest a 1-unit play on MIL.
the UTA -6.6 would USUALLY mean a play on Indiana but there are also certain situations that make me pass on a game with a big difference between my system's line and the book's line. Indiana falls into one of these situations so they become a "no play" for my system.
In terms of units, the bigger the difference the more units I play it for. Example: Toronto tonight. The difference between my line and the book's line is over 11 pts so this is a 10-unit play for me (meaning I'm laying 11 units to win 10).
Not sure I can explain it any clearer than that. Hope it helps.
Further, the Raps have been on fire in the first quarter (12 straight 1q wins, up until yesterday...which was, of course, the first one I bet on) and have serious motivation on the back to back and seemed to get things going late on the Celts.
Red Wings spread-- easily explained, even if they don't cover during the game they have the garbage empty net goal possibility.
Trailblazers a tiny dog to a Bulls team that is on a serious downturn.
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Further, the Raps have been on fire in the first quarter (12 straight 1q wins, up until yesterday...which was, of course, the first one I bet on) and have serious motivation on the back to back and seemed to get things going late on the Celts.
Red Wings spread-- easily explained, even if they don't cover during the game they have the garbage empty net goal possibility.
Trailblazers a tiny dog to a Bulls team that is on a serious downturn.
Test: Under your system, the Blazers aren't favoured by as much as the line is. Do you think it's the weakness of the Blazers or simply that the system (although effective for turning a profit) might just not hit the likely probability of the Blazers covering tonight? Odd phrasing, but do you get the jist of my point?
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Test: Under your system, the Blazers aren't favoured by as much as the line is. Do you think it's the weakness of the Blazers or simply that the system (although effective for turning a profit) might just not hit the likely probability of the Blazers covering tonight? Odd phrasing, but do you get the jist of my point?
jlippens - I think I understand what you're getting at. Let me put it this way .... the reason I have a graduated wagering system (1-unit, 3-unit, 5-unit & 10-unit plays) is because the larger the difference between my system spread and the posted line means it's more likely that either the fave is being over-valued or the underdog is being under-valued. In either case, there is value in wagering on one team or the other.
In the case of the Trailblazers tonight:
I have Portland's overall rating at 100.6 which means that they are performing as expected. The BUlls rating is 98.4 which means the Bulls (according to my system) are slightly under performing right now. But again, my system line is so close to the posted line that there is not much value either way which is why I'm steering clear.
Hope that helps.
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jlippens - I think I understand what you're getting at. Let me put it this way .... the reason I have a graduated wagering system (1-unit, 3-unit, 5-unit & 10-unit plays) is because the larger the difference between my system spread and the posted line means it's more likely that either the fave is being over-valued or the underdog is being under-valued. In either case, there is value in wagering on one team or the other.
In the case of the Trailblazers tonight:
I have Portland's overall rating at 100.6 which means that they are performing as expected. The BUlls rating is 98.4 which means the Bulls (according to my system) are slightly under performing right now. But again, my system line is so close to the posted line that there is not much value either way which is why I'm steering clear.
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