Posted:
#1
Best Bets: 32-22, Streak, Won 2 (6-4 Last Ten)
Bets Bet: OK City Thunder +7.5
I think a wise player will hit this dog early because when the smart money wakes up and has a cup of coffee this line is not going to hold up. I have no idea what the public is thinking supporting Houston in this spot, but let's look at why I feel that way. Houston is just 2-7 SU and ATS their last 9 and scoring 90.9 per game with an average deficit of 2.1 ppg over their last 10. The schedule has been a bit tough with 7 of their last 10 on the road, but that just continues tonight with a 5th straight road game and flight home to face the Knicks tomorrow night. I am sure the public is placing way too much stock in the win at Boston and expects the Rockets to bounce back now, but that win is over valued as the Celtics are playing some pretty sad ball themselves lately and are a tired team with a weak bench. My numbers indicate the Celtics were little more than an average team, even with home court advantage, on the night the Rockets nailed them.
By comparison we must not read too much into the thumping the Thunder took at Minnesota the other night as the T-Wolves are the hottest team in the NBA at the moment. Over their last 10 games the Thunder have played an average to better schedule and are 7-3 ATS over that span, also ranking them among the hottest teams in the league at #13 and a solid 3 notches over the Rockets. The Thunder are still embarrassed over their extremely poor start this year but are atoning for it very nicely. What doesn't change very quickly is public perception, the idea that the Rockets are far and away a better team and can clear 7.5 in this spot. That may or may not be true and regardless of what any rocket scientist handicapper tells you, none of us know until the games are played, but a significant part of my bankroll says 7.5 is way too high. GL.
Bets Bet: OK City Thunder +7.5
I think a wise player will hit this dog early because when the smart money wakes up and has a cup of coffee this line is not going to hold up. I have no idea what the public is thinking supporting Houston in this spot, but let's look at why I feel that way. Houston is just 2-7 SU and ATS their last 9 and scoring 90.9 per game with an average deficit of 2.1 ppg over their last 10. The schedule has been a bit tough with 7 of their last 10 on the road, but that just continues tonight with a 5th straight road game and flight home to face the Knicks tomorrow night. I am sure the public is placing way too much stock in the win at Boston and expects the Rockets to bounce back now, but that win is over valued as the Celtics are playing some pretty sad ball themselves lately and are a tired team with a weak bench. My numbers indicate the Celtics were little more than an average team, even with home court advantage, on the night the Rockets nailed them.
By comparison we must not read too much into the thumping the Thunder took at Minnesota the other night as the T-Wolves are the hottest team in the NBA at the moment. Over their last 10 games the Thunder have played an average to better schedule and are 7-3 ATS over that span, also ranking them among the hottest teams in the league at #13 and a solid 3 notches over the Rockets. The Thunder are still embarrassed over their extremely poor start this year but are atoning for it very nicely. What doesn't change very quickly is public perception, the idea that the Rockets are far and away a better team and can clear 7.5 in this spot. That may or may not be true and regardless of what any rocket scientist handicapper tells you, none of us know until the games are played, but a significant part of my bankroll says 7.5 is way too high. GL.
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Ignorance is a condition that can be cured by education and experience. Stupidity however, is a lifelong disability.
Ignorance is a condition that can be cured by education and experience. Stupidity however, is a lifelong disability.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
GL
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