Messages

Looks like a pretty good night overall and I think we can pick up some steam now that,

 

1. MrOPC and JEG are out of jail

2. Norse FINALLY noticed what we are up to (a little dense?) lol

3. All teams are at 5 or more games with several at 8 and when all hit 10 games played my numbers get even better. At 10 games all teams have true form and it doesn't matter who has not played each other because all the numbers become interlinked anyway. By Christmas I expect MrOPC to offer me new computer goodies, anything I want, since he will be doing some serious bankroll building for his first love, 5 inning baseball.

 

Utah and Atlanta were very encouraging last night, taking the cash as moneyline dogs, Quarter, Half and Game, clean sweep.

 

Let's get going. My numbers are in the machine and I am just waiting on lines.

Key, are we riding the Atlanta train again today? Bos always starts slow especially on the very first game against any opponent.

Sunbeam: Thanks and glad you had a great evening. I am aware of Grady, but am probably going to leave that one alone anyway as MrO's favorite computer says that line is probably pretty accurate, with a lean toward the under. Atlanta? Well, you'll

just have to wait and see. haha.

 

MrO; Yeah, woof, woof, but did you cash the tickets or just wait to see if I got my crap together again?

 

Nice card tonight and I will be ready pretty soon.

ATL +3?

First Quarter Plays

 

 

Laying points to an unbeaten team is not wise, no matter who you are, defending champs or not. Might also want to remember it was these same Hawks that took the Celtics to 7 games last year in the first round. Heck, the Lakers couldn't do that in the finals.

 

 

The Clippers win one (1) freaking game over an overvalued Dallas squad and all of a sudden they are 8 point home favorites? Gimme a break. They are still the Clippers and should never be a favorite over anyone. Yes, the Kings are 0-4 on the road thanks to opening with 4 straight road games in the East. I am much more impressed with the 3-1 home stand they put together immediately after. I know Martin is out. Don't worry about it.     

Sunbeam: Two little hints for your handicapping notebook.

1. I never get nervous watching a dog I have picked because I wouldn't have picked them unless I computed them to be the better team at this point in time, under these given circumstances. In other words I feel I have the true favorite, or higher probability team. Case in point: The Kansas City Royals versus lefties last season, they win more often than not. Should be favored, only the public says dog, Bonus bucks with the better side. Sweet.

2. An injury to any one starter is usually not a big deal. The NBA has the deepest pool of players of any professional sport in the world. The game is played world wide and yet only 360 guys are eligible at any time. Hundreds of good college players are never even given a chance, and we have 320 colleges in Division 1. What that boils down to is that anyone coming off the bench for an injured player, or to substitute at any point in the game, is darn well qualified to do so. Proof that one player does not carry a team is all over the place. Just look at Memphis minus Gasol. They really aren't worse are they? Still look like the Grizzlies to me. Gasol solidified the Lakers and took them from the very good to super class, but it really didn't effect the Grizzlies all that much, since one player can not carry a team anyway. 

 

Thanks Key for the explanation. I already knew you'll be on the Atlanta train again. I liked, and will be on both of your picks tonite.

 

Backdoor, was that a train that you've drawn just joking!!! any CFB pick on your train tonite? I like NIU so far...

Key.......I'm still looking for some of those writeups you did in the MLB forum explaining ROI and dogs....you always had a very involved; but astute, way of explaining the "value" in playing the dog that was competitive as compared to playing the faves....

 

Back.....Liking Kent St tonite as well as CMU....and the Lakers getting points....Kobe sounds like a great leader in all his interviews...very savvy playing...

Guess I just showed my age there,lol

Have a Dr App.so just going to pick some early games before I leave.N.Ill-CMU,everything about this saids over,big Mac game for a bowl bid and last year at CMU high scoring game with easy win by CMU,but N.ILL is not balanced on Offense so if they have any shot at all the Defense has to show up,so for game I was thinking under 50,but having a problem pulling the trigger. 

Will any of you guys still be on this thread during the games so we can talk 2ndH picks as well? 

See if you can find NJPorky who does a lot of work on 2H bets in the NFL forum........

bd_c: getting belligerent as hell there buddy but I am man enough to laugh it off. Besides, your attitude can be tolerated just for a daily look at the ice lady. She is welcome in my igloo anytime!

 

MrO: You are looking at enough action that you may have 25 or 30 bucks in risk out there.  

 

The ROI comparisons are simple. A -110 wager pays 91 cents on the dollar. Last night at +110 on Utah I had a 17% potentially better profit by playing the money line (91/110) and 26% better on Atlanta (91/123), but, I also had rested teams versus over valued opponents. No sweat. Tonight what turns me off is the B2B situation for both my teams versus rested teams. I don't think that is a major problem for only one quarter, but if Boston is as good as advertised (much better than Chicago) and the Clippers face a weaker team in the Kings than Phillie did in Utah, I do not see exactly the same advantages and think it may be wiser to take the points. There will be plenty of money line opportunities during the season, but one has to be careful and pick his spots. I still compute Atl and Sac to win the first quarter outright or I wouldn't play, but taking the points is an edge with B2B teams.