Posted: 11/7/2008 3:31:33 PM
The Chicago Bulls are 4.5 point home dogs, and it appears that the Public are leaning heavy on the road team by the concensus. They play a Phoenix Suns team that is on the 3rd game of a B2B/ dayoff/ B2B with all the games on the road. My intial thought is that I might be able to bet the Bulls when I watch the game tonight by playing against the public.
4 games in 5 days with 2 sets of back to backs happened 18 times last year in the NBA. In 07, the Road Team's record was 13-5 SU and 11-6-1. Also, the over was 12-6. Okay this favors Phoenix, but what if I look at the Road teams as favorites with the same criteria in these games. It happened 9 times. The Vistors went 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS. Wins ATS (-6.5, -6.5, -2, -2.5, -7, -5.5) Loss ATS (-10,-8) Push (-3) Finally, the over in these games were 8-1. More Phoenix. What if the East is hoasting a Western Conference team? 5-2 SU / 5-2 ATS / 5-2 Over. Deng, more signs pointing to Phoenix. FYI this has happened once this year and SAC lost SU & ATS as road dogs, but the over hit.
This year the Bulls have won and covered at home both times this year against MEM & MIL. They have lost against CLE, BOS, & ORL. They covered in the Magic game, but that is not a suprise as the Magic showed again last night that they might have a problem closing teams out. Against Elite teams CLE & BOS the Bulls have looked very pedestrian.
Okay thesis statement, body paragraph, What else? Oh yeah. My pick I will play the Suns -4.5 2 units. Could play the over too but I will probably just be happy with the pick because when I limit my plays I usually make $. This week up 7 units 4-0 with a posted record (9-1 overall NBA). GLA