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[Pro Hoops] Topic: NBA 2008-09, Week 2 thread... |
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brewers7 |
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#1 Posted: 11/4/2008 5:28:53 AM ======================================================================= Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ======================================================================= Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
======================================================================= Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7 ======================================================================= Bets record:
======================================================================= Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0 Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0 Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 3-3, -$75 ======================================================================= Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link==============================Sides: 27-19-1 #1 picks: 5-2 Totals: 25-22 #1 picks: 1-6 ===================================== Day 8: Random Thoughts: Unders are 31-16 to this point, so the defenses are well ahead of the offenses to this point...Underdogs are 25-22, after starting 12-6... Phoenix starts a 4 games in 5 nights stint (my favorite trend to track) tonight in New Jersey and the early surprise here is that with Coach D'Antoni out of town, the Suns have gone Over in all 3 games this years, while the Knicks only went Over in their opener with D'Antoni at the helm...Has Vegas over-adjusted these total lines thus far?...NJ has played 2 Unders in 2 games...These 2 teams have gone Under 5-of-6 and 7-of-9 overall h2h...But why does my gut tell me Over?...Well, I am not making it my #1 total so it actually has a chance to go Over, I guess... I would jump all over Houston here in this spot except that the Celtics were 11-5 ATS coming off losses last year and 3-0 ATS after losses of 10 points or more in the regular season...The Celts did not lose a game by 20 or more points in the regular season (although they did in the playoffs and did not cover that one)...Celts coming off a bad loss at Indy, losing by 16 (Boston's largest losing margin was 18 last year pre-playoffs)...But I believe Houston has the better motivational spot here, which trumps the good spot for the Celtics...Boston ended the Rockets' shocking 22-game winning streak last year (2nd best in league history) with a 94-74 thrashing at Houston on March 18...No Yao Ming for that one, though...No Shane Battier this time, but Ron Artest is an equitable replacement...What was even more impressive about the Celtics' win last year was they had just beaten SA by a bucket the night before at SA, so they were on the back-end of a tought back-to-back and HOU had 1 day's rest for that one...Anyway, the Celts don't have Posey this year and that will make a difference, and it may show up tonight...Can't help but like the Under, but to me the side is the play here...And I think this game line may move to 4 by game time... The Mavs were not good last year in back-enders, going 6-10-1 ATS, and the Spurs are 0-2 to start this young season...It looks like both of these teams are going to be 5-thru-8 seeds this year...5 of the last 7 h2h have gone Under...I give the nod to the Spurs here only because they are winless, but I'll be watching this one from the sidelines with my money firmly placed in my wallet as I am not touching this one with a bet...Oh, and I'll be watching this game during the commercials of the Bos/Hou game as that is the game I want to see... Sides: #1 Hou -2 #2 SA -3.5 #3 NJ +5.5 Totals #1 Hou un 178 #2 NJ ov 204 #3 SA ov 189 NO BETSI really want to bet the Rockets here, but I will probably take one more day off and try and line up a game or two on Wednesday since we have 13 games on the board...I more or less want to just enjoy watching that game...If the line remains at 2, maybe I'll grab it later, but I doubt it, I see it sliding upward... ======================================================================= Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ======================================================================= Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample======================================================================= Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose... Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint... Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble… Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional… ======================================================================= |
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#2 Posted: 11/4/2008 11:32:02 AM Nice writeups as always brewers7.
Houston has moves to -2.5 at pinnacle. Looks tasty.
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#3 Posted: 11/4/2008 11:58:34 AM Im On them!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   |
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#4 Posted: 11/5/2008 5:32:40 AM
Random thoughts for Wednesday:
Glad I didn't bet anything as I was 0-3 with my Sides AND Totals last night and if you count the half-time play that I THOUGHT about and ALMOST bet (but didn't), then I was 0-7 on the night...A monkey can do better...Hopefully I will do better tonight...
Unders now 33-17 on the season...Underdogs 27-23...
DET at TOR -- Looks like Iverson will play as there is no line out yet...He may make this team better later in the season, but right away??...Sheed didn't seem too ecstatic with the trade at first...So you ask how did Denver do when Iverson made his debut with the Nuggets?...Well it was on 12/22/06, and Iverson came off the bench and played 39+ minutes and shot well (9-for-15 from the floor for 22 points), but Denver lost at Home to SAC as 2.5 chalk 101-96...Now Denver was missing Camby due to a hand injury and Melo and JR Smith were suspended for that fracus at MSG with "toughie" Nate Robinson and others...I think Vegas will establish the Raptors as 4-point chalk here, maybe even 4.5 or 5...If it's less than 4, then I like Toronto a lot...DET 3-0 to the Over and TOR 3-0 to the Under in regulation time this season (Raps had an OT-aided Over) as 5 of the last 7 h2h have gone Under...
PHOE at IND -- Indy coming off a 16-point win over BOS, and they have 3 days rest here and the Suns are on a back-ender and are 0-1 SU and ATS in this spot this season...Did Indy play well or did BOS play bad in that loss?...BOS gave the credit to Indy, but BOS had 24 turnovers, shot 34.6% from the floor and 60% from the FT line...Not going to beat any NBA team with numbers like that...Indy went Over vs. DET and quite frankly, the BOS game was an Over pace (159 shots and 62 FTs attempted) but the shooting on both sides was horrid...PHOE, in essence, should have had 4 Overs in 4 games, but a 31-point 4Q last night as NJ scored a whopping 9 points in the 4Q provided for a miracle Under last night...Over looks good...Side is a stay-away for me as Indy is in a slight let-down spot and PHOE is coming off a 63.2% shooting night last night which is an automatic fade for me against that team the next time out...
PHI at MIA -- Do we really need to wait on Marion's status here before Vegas puts a line out?...No line yet...Philly has covered 5 straight vs. the Heat and 5 of the last 6 have gone Under h2h...Philly has ORL up next, so possible look-ahead, but I doubt it because after blowing a 23-point lead in ATL 4 days ago, Mo Cheeks won't let this team lose focus this time (I would hope)...Philly probably 2.5 or 3-point chalk here...
CHAR at NY -- Should I do it again?...Take NY Over?...Knicks have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series and 3 straight have gone Over...Got to believe Larry Brown will be pulling out every stop to get a win at MSG in his first game back since his coaching debacle there for a season...This total looks too juicy for me...Be hard for me not to take one more shot at a Knicks Over as Charlotte did get 35 FT attempts against DET last time out so if they accomplished that vs. DET, they should have no problem repeating that performance or getting more FTs against the Knicks porous defense...
BOS at OKC -- Thunder yet to have an Over in 3 games and I would expect the Celtics to tighten the screws on defense tonight after a high-scoring affair at HOU last night...I hate laying big Road chalk, but BOS proved last year that let-down spots don't happen with them as they beat HOU last year at HOU to snap their 22-game win streak, and they beat them by 20 after defeating SA at SA the night before by a bucket...They then went on to beat DAL at DAL 2 nights later...
ATL at NO -- No line as we wait for the status of Chandler and Peja for the Hornets...NO has won and covered the last 4 in this series with 2 Overs at NO and 2 Unders at ATL...Battle of unbeatens and that is no surprise for the Hornets but nobody expected ATL to be 2-0...ATL 2-0 to the Under and NO 3-0 to the Over thus far...
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#5 Posted: 11/5/2008 5:32:55 AM CHI at CLE -- 7.5 or 8 points looks like a lot here to me...Both teams 2-2 as they have gotten there different ways with CLE doing the LWLW thing and CHI going WLWL...So this means CLE wins this one, right?...If only it was this simple, but even if it was this simple, this doesn't account for the all-important point-spread and who will cover that...Both teams 3-1 ATS...The Bulls have won and covered 3 straight in this series...
SA at MIN -- Ok, SA has won 10 of 11 and are 7-3-1 ATS in those games h2h vs. Minny...But people are saying that the Spurs are suddenly washed up after starting this season 0-3 SU & ATS, especially after that Home debacle last night against the Mavs...Oh, and SA is a bad back-end of a back-to-back team, too...Thing is, as bad as they were the past few seasons in that spot, they were also THAT GOOD in the front-end of those bk-2-bk'ers...And didn't everyone just write off Dallas 24 hours ago after CLE destroyed them at DAL and then the Mavs were playing the Spurs on a back-ender and the Mavs had absolutely no chance to win that game?...What happened again?...Ahh, yes, that's right, the Mavs did destroy the Spurs last night at SA...That "sad-sack" DAL team beat Minny by 10 at Minny, and this Spurs' price is opening cheap, so get on board before it goes up to 4.5 or 5...As far as the total goes, 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9 have gone Over h2h...
WAS at MILW -- No line as we wait to see if Michael Redd plays...I may be wrong stating that MILW is a "chameleon" team as perhaps they are trying to establish themselves as a half-court set team...3 straight Unders, and those Unders went Under the Vegas total by about 60 points...I'll be watching...
PORT at UTAH -- The Blazers beat this team 3 out of 4 times last year SU and all 3 of those games went Under, while the Utah win went Over...But without Deron Williams, the Jazz are 3-0 to the Under, averaging about 15 PPG Under the Vegas total...PORT has gone Over 2 straight...Not sure about the total, but I like the points, despite the Blazers being 0-2 SU and ATS on the Road so far...
MEMP at SAC -- Kings missing Miller and Garcia...MEMP establishing themselves early as a stone Under team...4-0 to the Under and they've been a league-best 110 points Under the Vegas total number this season in their games...SAC started that way before flying Over the last 2 games of their Road trip...Home opener for SAC, and they are historically MUCH better at ARCO...But MEMP has covered 4 straight and 6 of 7 h2h here...SAC looks like the pick at first blush...
DEN at GS -- No line...Looks like Billups won't play but McDyess might which is strange to me...Maggette is questionable for GS...I usually LOVE this match-up Over, but Vegas has so over-inflated these totals since the 06-07 season that 4 of the last 5 have gone Under h2h...I am super-curious to see where Vegas puts this total...
LAC at LAL -- I guess the Lakers fans and the theatre-like lighting at Staples for "Lakers" home games is a lot different than the Clippers fans and the "normal" arena lighting that they have at Staples because the line shift from their last meeting a week ago is BIG as the Lakers opened at 9 or 9.5 chalk a week ago and now they are at 15 point chalk tonight to open...I don't believe the different colors on the floor or the cheerleaders for these home games make a difference...This line is perception based, and apparently they haven't made it high enough as the public seems to be on the Lakers early here...The Lake-show have pummeled the Clips in 5 straight with winning margins of 38, 28, 37, 18 & 21 the last 5 games...I wasn't a math major in college, but I don't need a calculator to know that the average margin of victory for these games = A LOT...4 straight Unders here h2h, which makes sense because usually blowouts = Unders...
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#6 Posted: 11/5/2008 6:24:09 AM |
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#7 Posted: 11/5/2008 6:26:57 AM I also like the Spurs as they shot only 41% and this is going to change vs wolves. btw phx shot even over 70% in the 1st half and I can't see it today again, so taking my chances with pacers
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#8 Posted: 11/5/2008 6:57:16 AM BREWERS,
I DON'T POST MUCH, BUT I DO SEARCH OUT GOOD CAPPERS(SUCH AS YOURSELF) AND READ THEIR THOUGHTS. I HAVE A GRREAT FEELING ABOUT YOU AS I READ YOUR POSTS AND TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOUR STRICT MONEY MGT.I AM LOOKING FORWARD TO READING YOUR THOUGHTS AND APPRECIATE YOU TAKING THE TIME TO SHARE YOUIR EXPERTISE WITH US! DO YOU DO CBB ALSO? LOOKING FORWARD TO A PROFITABLE SEASON!
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#9 Posted: 11/5/2008 8:17:58 AM O for 6 OUCHHHHHHHHHH!  Better luck Brewer!!!  |
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#10 Posted: 11/5/2008 10:07:21 AM |
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brewers7 |
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#11 Posted: 11/5/2008 2:11:16 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by fairfax:
DO YOU DO CBB ALSO?
I do not do CBB...
The NBA is time-consuming enough...
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#12 Posted: 11/5/2008 2:24:15 PM WIZARDS ROLL!!!! NO REDD |
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#13 Posted: 11/5/2008 4:35:10 PM
Good Luck..
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#14 Posted: 11/5/2008 5:07:11 PM
======================================================================= Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ======================================================================= Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
======================================================================= Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7 ======================================================================= Bets record:
======================================================================= Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0 Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0 Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 3-3, -$75 ======================================================================= Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link==============================Sides: 27-22-1 #1 picks: 5-3 Totals: 25-25 #1 picks: 1-7 ===================================== Day 9: Random Thoughts already posted...A lot of line-moves today...My #1 totals have been atrocious, losing 6 straight now and 7 of 8 to start the year, but I am hoping tonight will be the end of the bad streak as the non-stop Unders to this point of the season has provided some value in some of these totals that cannot be ignored... Sides: #1 GS -3.5 #2 Tor -3.5 #3 Chi +9 #4 Phi -3 #5 Port +6.5 #6 Sac -3 #7 LAC +13.5 #8 Phoe -3.5 #9 OKC +9 #10 Atl +8.5 #11 SA -5 #12 Char +5 #13 Was +1 Totals #1 NY ov 206 #2 GS ov 206.5 #3 Tor un 181 #4 OKC un 183 #5 LAC un 195 #6 SA un 181 #7 Port un 188.5 #8 Sac un 193.5 #9 Phoe ov 204.5 #10 Phi un 190.5 #11 Atl ov 194.5 #12 Chi ov 186.5 #13 Was un 188.5 Bet: Level 1 -- Charlotte/New York over 204.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- Line was at 203 last night and I almost bet it, but figured "how much can it really move in 8 hours?"...Well it was at 206 earlier...I waited and it is dropping again and you can get it at this total with positive juice at the moment at Pinny...I am taking one more shot here at a Knicks Over...NY is dead last in the league in FG%...Can only improve...This Unders domination with NBA totals will turnaround at some point...I am looking for a ton of FTs tonight from both teams which will hopefully get us more points...Pace should be ok tonight...I just cannot see a D'Antoni offense being stifled yet again, and even though Larry Brown loves defense, he's got some athletes with the Bobcats who probably arn't going to mind running up and down the floor in this one for long spurts... Level 1 -- Denver/Golden State over 53, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- I simply cannot help myself here...Golden State is a much different team at Home than on the Road...A lot more Overs at Home...That arena is electric when they play there, you can almost feel the energy, and the Warriors feed off that energy...I realize that the personnel is completely different with both teams now from a year ago and we have a trade and injuries here to factor in, and I realize that Denver is 6th in the league in defense in terms of FG% allowed, so I guess the Nuggets' players weren't just whistling Dixie in the preseason when they said they were focused on defense...But there was a good article on a blog that talked about Denver and their defense last years in terms of points allowed per possession and not points per game, and I believe DEN was 29th last year defensive in terms of PPG, but were somewhere around 9th to 14h in terms of allowing points per possession...Just one look at the insane totals these 2 have played the last 2 seasons lends one to believe that you have a bargain times two with tonight's line, but I'll take the 1Q Over because there is no doubt in my mind that the pace will be an Over pace in the 1Q for sure tonight...just need the shots to go in and some dunks and lay-ups in transition for both teams won't hurt, either... Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change... GL... ======================================================================= Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ======================================================================= Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample======================================================================= Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose... Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint... Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble… Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional… ======================================================================= |
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#15 Posted: 11/6/2008 4:18:45 AM Ok, tough beat with the long drought during the last 6 minutes of the Knicks game last night, but that's the NBA, you expect tough losses and move on to the next day...
PHI at ORL -- 10 of the last 14 have gone Over h2h...Philly has been outscored in 3 of 4 quarters in both of their Road games, and outscored badly at that...ORL has won 5 of the last 6 SU (3-3 ATS) and 12 of the last 17 SU (7-9-1 ATS) h2h...Philly lost and did not cover their only back-ender this year and it was on the Road at Atlanta, blowing a 23-point lead...Philly had 26 turnovers last night, which may be close enough to a general rule I have where you take a good team off a 30+ turnover game the next time out...Philly Under is 4-1 this year and ORL is 3-1 to the Under...Philly's back-ender at ATL was an Under...
HOU at PORT -- Houston has won 5 straight and covered 3 straight h2h, and the Rockets have won 15 of 18 SU in this h2h match-up, but are just 10-8 ATS in those games...The Under is 7-2 and 10-4 over the last 9 & 14 games, althogh the previous 4 went Over...Portland's only back-ender this season was an Over and they have gone Over 3 straight...PORT much-improved at Home and they beat SA in their only Home game this season...
Teams with rest playing teams on back-enders are 6-10 ATS this season, but most of those ATS losses were by "bad" teams or teams with .500 or losing records so far this season...In fact, 9 of those 10 ATS losses were by .500 teams or worse, with the Lakers the only winning team Not to cover in that spot, but they had an over-inflated 8-point line to cover at DEN and they almost did cover it anyway, winning by 7...ORL is a .500 team and HOU is 3-1 with this situation tonight...
If you look at the Hou/Port total, currently at 184.5, if you go back over several seasons between these 2 teams h2h, you will see this:
23 of their last 30 games have had totals Under that 184.5...There were also two 186's and a 185...20 of the last 30 have gone Under the vegas number h2h here...
Not much really sticking out here as far as a bet goes, so I may pass and look at the 13-game card for FRI... |
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#16 Posted: 11/6/2008 4:34:20 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by pucku27: THUR PLAY
ORL - 4
THIS WILL BE 76ERS 6TH GAME IN 9 DAYS. THERE 3RD GAME IN 4 NIGHTS. ORL WILL HAVE TWO NIGHT OFF TO REST. CAN YOU SAY BLOW OUT
i like your write ups keep it up.. how do these teams do during prime time Thursdays..
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#17 Posted: 11/6/2008 4:43:28 AM man you ever sleep in the night?
i like your thread very much
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#18 Posted: 11/6/2008 10:15:16 AM
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#19 Posted: 11/6/2008 5:34:30 PM ================================================== ===================== Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ===================== Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ===================== Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7 ================================================== ===================== Bets record:
================================================== ===================== Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0 Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0 Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 4-4, -$100 ================================================== ===================== Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link==============================Sides: 32-30-1 #1 picks: 6-3 Totals: 31-32 #1 picks: 1-8 ===================================== Day 10: Random Thoughts already posted...I am passing today on bets...#1 Totals a debacle right now...I should stick with #1 sides till further notice... Sides: #1 Port +5 #2 Phi +5 Totals #1 Port un 183.5 #2 Phi un 193.5 NO BETS================================================== ===================== Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ================================================== ===================== Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample================================================== ===================== Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose... Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint... Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble… Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional… ================================================== ===================== |
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#20 Posted: 11/7/2008 4:17:07 AM
RANDOM THOUGHTS on Friday's card:
NO at CHAR – These 2 teams have met 8 times and NO has won 6 of them SU and 7 of them ATS…Looks like a lot of points to me, but then again all 6 of the Hornets wins in this h2h series have been by at least 9 points…
NY at WAS – All 3 games last year h2h went Over, but one was OT-aided…I may be stubborn here, but this game looks like an Over …Knicks have covered 4 of the last 5 h2h…WAS looking for their first win of the season…Knicks looked bad at Philly, their only Road game…Of course, WAS didn’t look good at all vs. NJ, their only home game…
DET at NJ – Iverson’s debut with DET…DET 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS against NJ the last 12 h2h…4 Overs and a push the last 5 h2h…DET 4-0 to the Over this year while NJ is 3-0 to the Under, although their last game should have been an Over against PHOE…Possible look-ahead for DET as they have Boston next…
IND at CLE – The Cavs have had a convenient schedule to this point as they have a day off after each game…They are 4-1 ATS…CLE is 10-1 SU and 8-1-2 ATS the last 11 vs. Indy h2h…These 2 have been streaky with their totals the last 20…6 Overs, then 6 Unders, a push and an Under, then 4 Overs and the last 2 have gone Under…
TOR at ATL – The Hawks a surprising, if not shocking 3-0 record to start the season and they are 3-0 ATS and 3-0 to the Under…TOR has won and covered 4 of the last 5 vs. ATL, but lost their last game at ATL…TOR is 6-0 ATS the last six 1H lines vs. ATL…4 of the last 5 and 13 of the last 15 have gone Over h2h…
MIA at SA – Lowest spread between these 2 at SA since 1996…24 of the last 30 h2h have gone Under including 3 straight and 16 of the last 18…SA has won 10 straight h2h at SA, going 8-2 ATS…SA 0-4 ATS on the season, while MIA is 0-2 SU & ATS this season on the Road…
PHOE at CHI – Suns should be 5-0 to the Over this season (ridiculously low 4Q at NJ got a miracle Under there)…Suns also 4-1 SU & ATS on the season…PHOE 8-2 SU & ATS the last 10 vs. CHI…4 of the last 6 Over h2h…I am not worried about the side here as the Over looks like the play as CHI has played mostly Under opponents so far and still have 2 Overs in 5 games…
OKC at UTA – Jazz swept OKC last year, although the Thunder covered 2 and have actually covered 8 of the last 11 h2h…All 4 games last year went Under h2h…OKC 4-0 to the Under this season and Utah 3-1 to the Under…No Deron Williams again (doubtful)…Utah 4-0 on the season and they have covered 3 in a row…
MIN at SAC – All 3 games went Over last year h2h…Early revenge spot for Minny, who won at home vs. Sac 9 days ago and it was an Under…Brad Miller is back for SAC…
DAL at DEN – Mavs have won 9 of 13 h2h but DEN has won 3 of last 4 h2h…11 of the last 16 h2h have gone Under, but 2 of 3 last year went Over…DAL has had 3 straight Unders, going Under the Vegas line by an average of 14 PPG…How do Billups and McDyess fit into the Denver equation?...Does Denver slow it down now?...Doubt it, but their defense could improve some more in terms of points allowed per possession…
MEMP at GS – Warriors a revenge spot here as they already lost to MEMP at MEMP 90-79 four days ago…The game was 31 points Under the Vegas number, but the pace was certainly quick, with 174 shots and 35 FTs…While MEMP shot ok at 46.2%, GS only shot 34.4%...Maggette is expected to miss and Harrington wants out of GS as he is demanding a trade and has been a problem all season, feuding with Nellie…He only played 16 minutes last game and only scored 3 points…He may not play Friday…MEMP had 4 straight Unders before going Over at SAC last time out (barely), but it took 106 points in the 2H to get Over the total…GS had won 7 straight h2h before the loss 4 days ago and 4 straight and 5 of the last 6 h2h have gone Under…
HOU at LAC – No line posted…Rockets have won 17 of 20 SU and are 13-7 ATS h2h vs. Clips…HOU 9-1 SU and ATS last 10 at LAC…Clippers 0-5 on the season SU & ATS, and are 4-1 to the Under (in regulation – 1 over was OT-aided)…Gotta think the Clips have the motivational edge here…They did last time out vs. the Lakers, but LAL wore them down and took over in the 4Q (Clips led at the half)…So is a 1H bet on the Clips applicable here?...Clips have covered 4 straight 1H lines, despite being 0-5 SU and ATS…HOU has the Lakers up next… |
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LooseOnTheLead |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 1293
Location: New York |
#21 Posted: 11/7/2008 9:35:34 AM |
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PrimeTime7 |
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Prospect
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 16
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#22 Posted: 11/7/2008 2:56:53 PM I have been following you from Day 1 in the NBA season. I appreciate all your write ups...Any plays for today??? |
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brewers7 |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 1874
Location: Pennsylvania |
#23 Posted: 11/7/2008 4:10:32 PM ======================================================================= Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ======================================================================= Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
======================================================================= Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7 ======================================================================= Bets record:
======================================================================= Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0 Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0 Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 4-4, -$100 ======================================================================= Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link==============================Sides: 33-31-1 #1 picks: 7-3 Totals: 32-33 #1 picks: 1-9 ===================================== Day 11: Random Thoughts already posted...Overtime cost the Port Under yesterday, thank god there was no bet...NBA #1 Sides have always been my pride and joy and they have weathered this early storm and are 7-3 and obviously I should be betting those...#1 Totals have lost 8 straight and totals are either on ON or OFF and most years, #1 totals don't kick in until mid-December, although in recent years they have been fast out of the gate...Uh, NOT this year...I like my top 3 totals a lot tonight, but I simply cannot bet them due to the horrible start my totals have had... Sides: #1 LAC +6 #2 Tor +3 #3 Chi +4.5 #4 OKC +11 #5 Memp +7 #6 NJ +7.5 #7 Was -5.5 #8 Char +7.5 #9 SA -6 #10 Milw +13.5 #11 Sac -4 #12 Dal +1 #13 Ind +8.5 Totals #1 Chi ov 204.5 #2 Was ov 210 #3 Memp ov 195 #4 Tor un 185.5 #5 OKC un 185.5 #6 Sac ov 199 #7 Dal ov 206 #8 Ind ov 193.5 #9 NJ ov 190 #10 Char un 186 #11 SA un 189.5 #12 LAC ov 181.5 #13 Milw un 183 Bets: Level 1 -- Toronto Raptors +3, $275 to win $250 -- Taking the better team here...Atlanta is red-hot out of the gate...We all know it won't last...But admittedly, the hardest thing to do when you are looking at a hot team is trying to figure out WHEN they re going to lose...Generally I will let the hot streak end and then go against them, but ATL has only played 3 games, so it's not like they are 6-0 and counting, where I would definitely let the streak ride out and then go against them as soon s they lose...Raptors coming off their first loss of the season and I look for them to bounce back while I look for a slight let-down out of the Hawks, who played way above their heads, IMO, at New Orleans to beat the Hornets last time out... Level 1 -- Los Angeles Clippers +6, laying $275 to win $250 -- This is a bit risky for me only because LAC is on a NC5 to start the season (and are 0-5 SU) and I generally let these streaks end before I bet them because sometimes these streaks will get up to as high as 8 to start the season ATS-wise...But I like Baron Davis...He didn't go to the Clips to lose...He wants to win, make no mistake about it...Sure, it's taking some time to have Camby and Davis fit in here, but the Clips have Covered 4 straight 1H lines before falling apart in the 2H all 4 of those games...It is just a matter of focus and playing 48 minutes and I am sure Coach Dunleavy hammered that home at practice yesterday...Getting 6 at Home against a team who played a tough OT loss last night is a bonus, IMO, as 3 Houston starters played heavy minutes in that tough loss... ======================================================================= Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ======================================================================= Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample======================================================================= Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose... Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint... Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble… Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional… ======================================================================= |
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brewers7 |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 1874
Location: Pennsylvania |
#24 Posted: 11/8/2008 5:08:31 PM
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
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Bets record:
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Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 4-6, -$650
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Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
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Sides: 41-36-1
#1 picks: 7-4
Totals: 40-38
#1 picks: 1-10
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Day 12:
I might be a good fade for the next 2 or 3 weeks...My pride-and-joy, my #1 sides are 7-4, so perhaps I should just be betting those...My #1 totals have now lost 9 straight, hich must be close a record for me...I have tracked these but don't know of the top of my head what my worst streak is for #1 totals...I know I lost 10 in a row on the #1 sides once in the last 17 years, and it was last year, when I had severely limited capping time...My best win streak was 11, in 1996-97, I believe...
I am not capping badly, as I have winning records for both sides and totals for ALL picks and went 8-5 in both categories last night, a card I liked...I told a friend yesterday afternoon that I should bet every side & total and I'd probably have a good day, and well, 16-10 is better than the 0-2...problem is it would be such a departure for me to bet every side and total on a 13-game board, that it would just feel too weird to do it, even though it may be a good idea when I see a board like yesterday...
Only real problem I am having right now is getting the winners to the top of the list (in the #1, 2 & 3 picks range, instead of 7, 8 or 9)...Yesterday a good example as I bet my top 2 sides and went 0-2, while going 8-3 with all the other sides...My #2 and #3 totals were easy winners, while my #1 was a stone loser, and I took the Over at the #1 pick even knowing that CHI was one of the top teams defensively in FG% allowed this season...Not making smart enough decisions with my bets and top totals...
My #1 sides have always been pretty solid historically...My #1 totals have been solid the last 4 years, but very flaky and bad at times in previous years...There is no way I will be having Level 2 or 3 bets any time soon until I get the picks at the top of the list and bets straightened out...But I may hover around 50% for a few weeks and may not get hot until around Week 6 if history is any indicator here...Time will tell...Be very careful when contemplating bets on my plays right now...I am only betting 2.5% of my bankroll right now and am in no danger whatsoever of losing that BR, but it's important to keep the bet level low until further notice...
Some quick MISC stuff:
ORL has covered 7 straight 1Q lines vs. WAS...
NJ has covered 8 straight 1H lines and 7 of 8 1Q lines vs. Indy and 17 of the last 20 Over the total h2h...NJ has covered 7 of last 9...
NO covered 6 straight and 10-of-13 vs. MIA and 6-of-last-7 have gone Over h2h...
PORT 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS last 10 vs. Minny…6 of last 7 Over after 8 unders h2h…PORT has covered 6 straight...
Sides:
#1 Phoe -5.5
#2 Chi +2
#3 NJ +8
#4 NO -11
#5 Orl -9.5
#6 Port -8
Totals
#1 Port ov 191
#2 Phoe ov 197.5
#3 NO un 191.5
#4 NJ ov 199
#5 Chi un 189
#6 Orl un 198.5
Bet:
Level 1 -- Phoenix Suns -5.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- The first game of the season with my favorite trend, the 4-games-in-5-days-trend, so this is an automatic play on the visiting team and since I am in no mood to overthink when I am struggling, i will just make the automatic play and bet it...I won't bet these blindly, as these 4-of-5's can be very streaky, too...SHAQ didn't play last night (rested for tonight) and the PHOE startrs did not play extended minutes...Still no Redd...Milwaukee may be at Home, but had to travel farther than PHOE and they may have exerted more energy keeping that Celtics game close last night than PHOE did getting hammered at CHI...I don't see MILW winning this game, so since PHOE has good FT shooters, even if the game is very close at the end, if MILW fouls them in the waning seconds, PHOE should get over that number by hitting their FTs, but in all honesty, I hope this is a double-digit win for the Suns and I don't have to sweat too much...
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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
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tmpeus78 |
RSI |
Captain
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 9740
Location: Wisconsin |
#25 Posted: 11/8/2008 5:27:09 PM |
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