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Author: [Las Vegas] Topic: Taking my talents to Cantor
HardballHarry send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/19/2012 7:24:01 PM

What prompted me to do this was reading the thread entitled “Living the Dream”. Well, this is my version of living the dream in the 21st century. I thought I would share with you guys my effort to make money professionally betting sports. I hope to keep this going but who knows how much interest I will maintain in doing it. Anyway, here goes it:

So I have made the decision. I’m taking my talents to Cantor. They say they take all-comers. No bettors refused. They think they have the algorithms and securities trading background to make, and beat the betting market. I’d like to take a shot at them.

The NBA is where my focus and past successes have been. The last few years have validated what I already believed to be true. I can consistently hit 55% against the opening NBA line with 600-800 plays per season.

I have done this with real money. Albeit small money. I only wagered 2% or so per bet of my beginning bankroll (which I have intentionally limited to 5K). I now want to step up to the next level with a six-figure knot and I just don’t feel safe posting up 30-50k with off-shore books.  Not to mention trying to cash out for a substantial amount of cash. Hell, they make me sweat out a 2k payment. Imagine trying to get 20! And then the fees. Ridiculous. Probably 90% of the people who deposit never withdrawal simply because the fee is so high relative to the withdrawal amount that the players keep playing until they have “enough” to do a withdrawal. Of course, this is playing right into the book’s hand. I do have to say though that for all the online books I’ve ever dealt with, I have never been stiffed. I’ve had to wait, resubmit, (re)validate, and do every other thing that will delay a payment, but I eventually got paid.

But anyway, when I heard that Cantor will now accept wagering via WiFi within Nevada, it got me thinking as to the possibilities that this opened for someone like myself (i.e. wanted to legally and SAFELY make bets but didn’t actually permanently reside in Nevada). After doing some quick math, I realized that the economics of it could work with a sizeable enough bankroll. It was then that I decided that I would seriously look into sports betting as a business.

I came up with a couple viable ideas of how I could do this and did some deeper research regarding costs of operating different types of ventures. Looking for a partner, I approached an old friend I grew up going to the track and hanging out with. We even actually owned a racehorse together that we raced for a year or two. I hadn’t seen him in a while but hanging with him was like going back in time where nothing has changed. He was still going to and basing his social life out of a simulcasting/racetrack facility. Right there I realized that although we had started down the same path, somewhere we split off and went different directions. I got married, had a family and put my love of numbers to work with an MBA and a finance career. And I still semi-handicapped sports. He stayed on the same track (no pun intended) and not coincidentally, was still in the same place.

I grew up going to the track daily at an early age and spent lots of time in OTB’s and racebooks. I’ve come to believe that the worst degenerate gamblers are the horseplayers. Probably just because they tended to be more visible to me. The sports addict wasn’t necessarily right there in your face begging for change to bet a dime super and picking up butts out of the ashtray. But horseplayers tend to be a different breed. They will practically live at the racebook and most seem to accept that this is their lot in life. Not to say that there aren’t those out there who can and do beat the sport. It’s just that I’ve never been in those circles. I was always with the squares. Rik is still there. Unfortunately he had lost his ability to see an opportunity and was only focused on the right-here, right-now, next race at Saratoga and the pick-4 at Del Mar. Too bad, he understands betting etc. and could have been very helpful. I guess he’ll just stick to driving a taxi to support his habit.

Oh well, I’ll move on. I still have some other options of people who could help me with my plan. In the meantime though I am booked to go to Las Vegas early next month to setup an account at Cantor and look into possible apt./office locations that can be leased economically and be used as a base of operations.

I still have a little time. The NBA season doesn’t start until October 31st. My plays don’t begin until approx. 10-15 games into the season (mid-late November). Everything just needs to be in place and operational by then.

I see this as a one-season, see how it goes venture. I’ll make plays until 75% of the season is completed and I’m willing to risk 25% of my bankroll. If I get down 25% at any time, I close the operation down.

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#2
Posted: 8/20/2012 1:32:52 AM
Good luck 
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#3
Posted: 8/20/2012 2:38:06 AM
I'm finally heading out there for good Oct. 1st. I can't wait! Let me know if you want any help.
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#4
Posted: 8/20/2012 8:02:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheBigBanger702:

I'm finally heading out there for good Oct. 1st. I can't wait! Let me know if you want any help.
Please, please pack a back up plan fellas
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#5
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:18:23 AM

I do not believe that a temporary office space will allow you to register as a "resident of Nevada"....and please remember, to wager electronically (either smartphone or computer), the NGC required Cantor (and Leroy's..now William Hill) to have a sophisticated GPS tracking system as part of the technology.

If you cannot find someone who is a resident, with valid drivers license and state ID, then you will have to do that yourself.

You could, if you knew how to do it, hire a runner to make your bets for you. Cantor would not have an issue with that as long as it was made known to them.

You seem to have done only about 5% of the research that you need to do to set this up.....So, nice first posting and best of luck.

VG

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#6
Posted: 8/21/2012 9:30:21 AM

Not that I will always feel the need to respond to comments on here but:

1) You don't need to be a resident of Nevada to open a Cantor account. Read the Cantor Gaming FAQ that explains how to get your money by check if you've gone back to your home state with a balance in your account. It is for tourists and anyone else who WHILE IN the state of Nevada wants to place a bet.

2) A person can be a resident of multiple states anyway. I know several people with residency in more than one state because of the favorable tax treatment that those places afford them.

3) And, if the bet is placed on a computer in Nevada, then the most spophisticated GPS system in the world will let it go through because bottom line, the computer IS in Nevada.

I agree that I have not done 100% of the work behind this yet. But I'm at least 50-75% of the way there. I know for sure that I could run an operation for 4-6 months at a total cost of under 20K for all overhead. I've started small biz's and its not that hard really to run them with low overhead. Plus, with a capped downside, the risk there is contained to a manageable number. I am also working a couple angles that will allow it to be done for substantially less. 20k though, that's the highest the hurdle would be.

It's not the money or the idea at this point, it's the psychological aspect of it. The daily grind but with big money. I don't know what that will do to me.

The economics side of it are a no-brainer with certain assumptions, (i.e. hitting 55% with 700 plays at $2500 per play).

Things could go wrong though:

Of course, these assumptions could prove to be way off (past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance).

I could go on the worst case of tilt in my life and blow my whole load, lose my home/family and end up in a vegas homeless shelter.

 

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#7
Posted: 8/21/2012 12:00:51 PM
The latter is more likely betting the NBA.  I think there are other wagering ventures more lucrative or at least more in your advantage.  One bettor said that there are some good horse years and some good poker years and some good wagering and some years everything is bad.  Best of luck.
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#8
Posted: 8/21/2012 1:12:44 PM

If I misinterpreted your posting, then I'm sorry. I assumed that you were going to wager electronically from outside the state...because you were discussing WIFI connections.

To add a smidgen of betting advice: The pros that I am friendly with would have no use for only betting with one book. You will find that the the Wynn (Avello), LVH (Kornegay) and MGM (Rood) would be happy to also take you business....if they know you. Shopping for lines in Vegas is paramount to running a successful business as a pro.

At $2200 a bet (assuming "juice bets" of -110) everyone in town will take your action all day long. Moving to $3300 or above, would require them wanting to know who you are....but not entirely necessary. Higher bets...probably.

I you are betting electronically, you will need to sign IRS paperwork, so that part will be taken care of.....IF you only want to bet electronically....William Hill should be added to Cantor (who will also provide ingame betting electronically) in order to shop lines.

 

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#9
Posted: 8/21/2012 4:47:13 PM
Thanks VG. Good Info.
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#10
Posted: 8/21/2012 4:52:16 PM

In my efforts to find help with my venture, I have decided that I am going to contact my uncle. He recently moved to California and is currently unemployed on permanent disability. For those on the lower economic scale, SSI lifetime benefits are like hitting the “win for life” lottery. Rent, utilities, food and some spending money for nothing! You’re not rich by any means, but if you just plain don’t want to work, you can’t beat it for its effectiveness in providing basic necessities. You just have to maintain your disability. I don’t know what he had to do to get this, but I do know it took years and he has a debit card automatically added to each month. So whatever he said it was true/worked.

I’ve tried to do business things with him in the past and they’ve never really worked out. I keep trying from time to time though because he is family and I would like to see him do better. He isn’t the swiftest guy so trying to explain exactly how I do what I do isn’t going to work with him. With the right coaching, though I think I could teach him what he would need to do. He does like to gamble so maybe I can talk up the Vegas angle. He doesn’t know it, but I might even offer him a beat-up car to use as a perk. That might be the best carrot I could dangle in front of him and would likely seal the deal. I’m not sure he is the right guy though yet.

After some deeper research, I’m seeing that a basic, safe, no-frills apartments can be rented for $500 per month. Cable, utilities $150. Other expenses $400/month. These costs total $1,050/month. Pay my help $250/week plus give him a rent-free apartment. It doesn’t even have to be Las Vegas, anywhere in the state will work.

A four month stint only $8,000 in costs!! And, that’s if I stay the entire 4 months. If it goes completely south at any time, I’m only on the hook for the remaining time on the apartment lease.

You can’t ask for more, low barriers to entry and exit.

For me, it’s the mental aspect of sports handicapping that is going to be the hardest thing to handle. The ONLY thing guaranteed is that you will have losing streaks. I have worked hard at the mental part of the game and if I can keep myself in check and stay focused, I can’t be hurt too bad.

I’ll talk to my uncle and see what he is up to. I'll also look into some other avenues which will get me to the same goal.
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#11
Posted: 8/22/2012 8:10:01 PM

Ok. I bought my uncle a bus ticket from California to Las Vegas. $150 well spent as I think I got him on board with this if I need him. We got a lot to do and get setup. It’s going to be a hectic couple of days. I probably won’t even do any gambling or very little if any. I don’t play table games or slots anyway.

The timing to get this setup is perfect. Because while my initial focus for this venture will be NBA investing, I also dabble in MLB as I have had a moderate level of past success.

First, as a general handicapping rule, I won’t bet much beyond 75% of a leagues season. And coincidentally, that’s where we are in baseball right now. So not only do I have the time to devote to this venture, but I also don’t bet the NFL. I might enter an NFL survivor pool, but that’s it.

My baseball season this year was not the best 180-172 (51.14%) +9.5 units. It could have been so much better. I took some of the most ridiculous bad beats. Anyway, the fact that I didn’t crash and burn at any point was amazing in and of itself. In prior years, I would have taken some of those beats and maybe not recovered. But I stayed true to the strategy with a nickel a game. Baseball, I continue to fine tune. It’s a grind though, everyday for 4 months to make under 5 grand.

For me, this is the time to relax and get away with the family without having to do handicapping work from a hotel room while on vacation. Come November, it all starts again with the NBA. It too, is a daily grind. Honestly, there are other things that I could do to probably make a lot more money than sports investing, but there is nothing in the world like the feeling of knowing that I can make money outsmarting other people on the expected outcome of a sporting event. It’s like a mathematical model building exercise where the object is to build the better model and I just love it. If this were the stock market, I would be outclassed, out-capitalized, out-everything. But sports investing gives me equal footing, especially betting into an opening line. I, like a lot of people, grew up believing that you can’t beat this so-called “oddsmaker” out there who always seemed to just know where the number was going to land. But then as I studied people like Jim Barnes and developed my own handicapping skills and techniques, I realized that I could also come up with a number on a game. I could then compare it to the opening market line and bet when the number was in my favor relative to the line I created. Out of this came my overall NBA handicapping strategy.

I can’t wait to get started, luckily I have a wife who doesn’t mind being married to someone who likes to handicap and bet sports everyday. I’ve tried to explain the obsession and she partly gets it but more importantly, fully understands it. My daughter is just getting to the age where she is starting to really understand that I bet games to make money. She doesn’t remember when I worked a “real” job for 70 hours a week in the securities industry. She just knows that mommy and daddy don’t work like her friends parents do at her private school. I fear I’m not really setting a good example. She doesn’t know all the hard work put into an advanced degree and successful business career.

I can’t worry about that right now though as I am on the cusp of starting something that all big time players should be doing at some point. Why risk money in an inherently unsafe manner off-shore if sports investing can be done economically and most importantly, legally and safely?

I just have to remember to do what many entrepreneurs have done previously: set it up the right way and pay your taxes.

If anybody is following this I’ll continue to update you on the progress of my venture.

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#12
Posted: 8/22/2012 8:27:22 PM
this was interesting until you made the text even bigger than last time. wtf....couldn't make it past the first sentence
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#13
Posted: 8/23/2012 9:01:15 PM
Im following, hope to see how things turn out..im very much considering a move out to Vegas..good luck.
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#14
Posted: 8/27/2012 6:13:01 PM

One of the things during my fact finding mission is to find out approx when lines come out. If anybody knows that would save me some time and would be appreciated. Specifically, when is the earliest that NBA lines will come out. Online they are available the day before by 3-4pm EST. Who puts them out the earliest in Vegas? What are the limits at those numbers? What time does Cantor and William Hill release?

Any help/thoughts are appreciated.

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#15
Posted: 8/27/2012 6:13:02 PM

One of the things during my fact finding mission is to find out approx when lines come out. If anybody knows that would save me some time and would be appreciated. Specifically, when is the earliest that NBA lines will come out. Online they are available the day before by 3-4pm EST. Who puts them out the earliest in Vegas? What are the limits at those numbers? What time does Cantor and William Hill release?

Any help/thoughts are appreciated.

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#16
Posted: 8/27/2012 7:25:25 PM

The stars are aligning.

As you know, I booked a bus ticket for my uncle to act as a possible beard for my sports investing venture. Well in the meantime, I had told my friend Rik (who I contacted about this a month ago) how I had booked the fact-finding mission. Apparently he has been on quite a run since we met at Saratoga Racecourse a few weeks ago. With his new found perspective on life he has given my business proposition some more serious consideration. To prove to me that he is serious, he even booked a flight to Vegas to coincide with my stay. Apparently, he had some nice hits in the last few weeks, but his biggest score in that time was a $7k super. He says that I am lucky for him and that my contacting him was an omen and will be the catalyst for the change in his life that he needs. Doesn’t winning big just make a huge positive difference in your outlook? It sure does his, too. Oh well, whatever it takes. So now I got both of these guys going with me and I can kind of “interview” them to make sure we are all on the same page. Oh yeah, they know each other but don’t know they are both going to be there for the same reason. They will though once they see each other. A little healthy competition never hurt anyone. As with most things, both have their own advantages and disadvantages.

I don’t know if Rik could handle Vegas, he is already a lifetime gambling addict and it would be like letting an alcoholic be a bartender. It might be too much for him to be exposed to that full-time, non-stop.

And my uncle, I honestly don’t know if he is smart enough to do this. It’s sad to say but, it might be true. It would take alot of hand-holding especially in the beginning. And we’re only talking about simple clicks of a mouse!

I’m excited that this is really starting to come together. I have always wanted to make real money sports investing and this hopefully will be the start of that. I just hope I don’t get too sick of doing it. That has always been my downfall in my other ventures. Even the successful ones become tedious eventually and they have to be discarded. The unsuccessful ones somehow never get to that stage. Luckily, we’re only talking 3-4 months of an NBA season. So I should be able to tough it out.

The next step now is to map out the seven apartments I preselected from the many available. I chose relatively low-priced apartments in buildings. They appear to be condos that are being rented. They all had an option of a 4 month lease. Initially, I just want to see the locations and surroundings to make sure they are suitable for this and that they are not in slums. Hopefully I’ll see a few that are ok. But there were many others available. So I’m sure I’ll find something if I keep looking.

Just a matter of time now, I’ll keep you updated.
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#17
Posted: 8/27/2012 10:17:07 PM
let us know what you find. i'm looking for a low-rent place too.
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#18
Posted: 8/29/2012 2:26:39 PM

well you guys got the idea. run with it.

 

later

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#19
Posted: 9/2/2012 6:28:53 PM
admire your spirit and guts to try this...best of luck to you!
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#20
Posted: 9/3/2012 3:51:42 AM
I moved to Vegas 3 years ago to do the same thing and haven't looked back and love every minute.
If you have any question, just ask or message me.

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#21
Posted: 9/4/2012 1:41:27 AM
good luck and thanks for sharing...very interesting read 
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#22
Posted: 9/6/2012 11:13:39 PM
Go for it man, good luck
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#23
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:26:51 PM
How is football season going?  My neighbor recently moved to Summerlin.  Retiree, got tired of the high cost of living here.  Hopefully will enjoy life there.  His wife loves betting football, he likes golf so should be ok.  Plan to visit them in late October when I'll be there for a class reunion.  Go up about three-four times a year.  Last March was there for the WAC tournament at the Orleans.  My brother got us in the sky box as a friend has a son working there.  Beautiful!  Before that was up in Nov. as classmates were there from LA for a bowling tournament at Sam's Town and in Sept. scouting a place for a friend's wedding reception.  Hawaii people love Vegas, many have migrated there to spend their last years there.  Can't leave the ocean for me, but will visit.
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#24
Posted: 9/14/2012 10:01:23 AM

All systems are a go. Will work exactly as planned. If anyone is interested, I may be able to provide a cost effective way for someone to get a physical presence in Nevada while still maintaining 100% control of their bankroll. Just setup an account and authorize me to put your bets in for you on your account. I can't withdraw or make changes, only place bets on your behalf. This is already done all the time (ex. Hilton contest). There are some small logistical issues but we could work those out.

Anybody who is a winning bettor and betting at least a dime a game could benefit from this. We could work out a flat-fee arrangement dependent on how much activity and time is required.

Of course, this would only be for the serious player.

 

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#25
Posted: 9/16/2012 3:20:18 AM
very interesting...might take you up on that. 
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