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Author: [Las Vegas] Topic: Why do people always talk about "Vegas" as if....
powerade send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/29/2010 10:43:53 PM

the city runs the sports world...

1st - They don't know who is going to win. The spread is designed to make the game even. Books don't rely on 1 game where everyone is betting on one side. They rely on thousands and thousands of games where overtime 90% of sports bettors will lose because of bad money management and inability to pick games.  

2nd - I would say offshore makes up for much much MUCH more of the action.

 

just my .02


 

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#2
Posted: 9/29/2010 10:46:14 PM
Because Americans are dumb
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#3
Posted: 9/29/2010 10:46:15 PM

Vegas is spoken about quite often because its a place where you can legally gamble sports.. But i get your point..

Look at that Rack!

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#4
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:03:26 PM
They might not know who is going to win, but they have enough statistical computations and inside info that they often have a good idea.
 
Take a look at how close they come to totals on a regular basis...
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#5
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:10:34 PM
And they usually benefit more when the dog covers!
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#6
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:11:45 PM
Most books usually duplicate the lines from Pinnacle from what i've heard.
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#7
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:21:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

They might not know who is going to win, but they have enough statistical computations and inside info that they often have a good idea.
 
Take a look at how close they come to totals on a regular basis...


Given that almost 60% of the time the score isn't even close to the spread...

...its more of a coincidence.


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#8
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:25:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by powerade:

the city runs the sports world...

1st - They don't know who is going to win. The spread is designed to make the game even. Books don't rely on 1 game where everyone is betting on one side. They rely on thousands and thousands of games where overtime 90% of sports bettors will lose because of bad money management and inability to pick games.  

2nd - I would say offshore makes up for much much MUCH more of the action.

 

just my .02


 




Cuz 95% of sports bettors and guys on here are friggin clueless. They live in a fantasy world where they think theyre the best capper in the world, they think theres some secret potion or formula to beating the books, and that any game they lose was a fix

A lot of the time guys are just making garbage up as far as the stats they post, stories they tell, amounts they wager, its just a fools paradise

The reasoning for guys making their plays and logic is just so baffling at times
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#9
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:27:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

They might not know who is going to win, but they have enough statistical computations and inside info that they often have a good idea.
 
Take a look at how close they come to totals on a regular basis...


This is another exaggeration, fairy tale

There will be like 14 games on a sunday and ONE game gets like 1 point from the total and all the joe sixpacks go "man amazing how those bookies do it"

Meanwhile the Pitt/Cle game went to 71 total points and the NE/COLT game was 10-7 (fictional examples obv)
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#10
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:28:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by HappyKane:



Given that almost 60% of the time the score isn't even close to the spread...

...its more of a coincidence.


Really? Define "isn't even close"

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#11
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:30:40 PM
just my .02 but folks lovin talkin vegas but it gives one the sense of being part of the 'inner circle"- headed out sunday am on a nonstop southwest flight from RDU and starting to get pumped
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#12
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:38:14 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by powerade]

the city runs the sports world...

1st - They don't know who is going to win. The spread is designed to make the game even. Books don't rely on 1 game where everyone is betting on one side. They rely on thousands and thousands of games where overtime 90% of sports bettors will lose because of bad money management and inability to pick games.  

2nd - I would say offshore makes up for much much MUCH more of the action.

 

just my .02


 

Buddy you are one of the smartest man on this website, i guess outside the ones who people actually pay to get their picks from.

Vegas Sports Gambling is not done by Mr. Rothstein ( sorry americans but vegas is not like casino anymore)

Many odds makers have Actuarial Science degrees.and just like blackjack and every other game that takes probabiity into factor they are the first ones to be hired for sports gambling....

After that it is all on us shmos who think they have a "system" or "process" .... to either bet the right winner or go down in flames like mostly everyone does.....

Its said that people use this site for information because there are more idiots on this site than I have ever seen....There 60 year old man who are degenerate gamblers who come on here and fill younger americans with bets that flop because they do not know the science in this.....

Oh and when people talk about vegas they are fuckin stupid.... look at the odds of just one game like the OKLAHOMA/TEXAS GAME

LV Hilton -3.5  Stations -4 MGM -3.5 Caesars -4

They are different because all the hotels use their own actuarial science guys..... Pinnacle????? seriously?????

Sportsbook, Bodog, Beted, Sportsbetting, moneybooks, fuckin any of them are off-shore and go off of one of these hotels.....

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#13
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:40:14 PM

people use "vegas" to refer to those making the lines....I dont think they actually think that city runs the gambling world....its just easier than saying those guys somewhere on the coast of Costa Rica are really putting out sharp lines....

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#14
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:42:23 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by RetireRichEarly:



This is another exaggeration, fairy tale

There will be like 14 games on a sunday and ONE game gets like 1 point from the total and all the joe sixpacks go "man amazing how those bookies do it"

Meanwhile the Pitt/Cle game went to 71 total points and the NE/COLT game was 10-7 (fictional examples obv)

Of course there are variables within a game and of course they miss plenty. You are the probably the same guy who looked at the Indi/Houston box score week 1 with a total of 58 and said, "wow that flew over!" without realizing the game was a foot away from going under the total of 47.

I've won and lost enough NBA totals to know how tight the lines can be there. Are they occasionally way off? Yup, but more often than not they are spot on.

See...guys like you, like to think you are on an equal playing field with the books and that sportsbetting is 100% based on talent and the other variables between the lines. That's fine. Keep up that narcissistic thinking.

You think Houston vs Oakland this week is a line to draw equal action? FIne put your money on Houston and come back here Sunday Night and complain how you "got moosed." It humors me every week when it happens...

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#15
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:50:25 PM

And for the record, that Oakland/Houston line is right about where it should be.

Is it a line that is going to draw equal action?

Nope

 

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#16
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:51:33 PM

Big Niner and Retire Rich Early

Please never leave this site

this site needs you so not everyone loses their money so fast!!!!

Finally someone is actually smart and does their research

I had a guy on a post talk about how he was goin to win his money back and blah blah

his stats read he was a 70% loser..... now why r u on this site giving people advice if you lose 7 out of 10 times..... fuckin morons!!!!!

 

 

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#17
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:52:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Of course there are variables within a game and of course they miss plenty. You are the probably the same guy who looked at the Indi/Houston box score week 1 with a total of 58 and said, "wow that flew over!" without realizing the game was a foot away from going under the total of 47.

I've won and lost enough NBA totals to know how tight the lines can be there. Are they occasionally way off? Yup, but more often than not they are spot on.

See...guys like you, like to think you are on an equal playing field with the books and that sportsbetting is 100% based on talent and the other variables between the lines. That's fine. Keep up that narcissistic thinking.

You think Houston vs Oakland this week is a line to draw equal action? FIne put your money on Houston and come back here Sunday Night and complain how you "got moosed." It humors me every week when it happens...



wow

your whole post was telling me what I think about a lot of stuff Ive never commented on.

And Im the guy that doesnt know what Im talking about? lol, covers
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#18
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:00:35 AM

What do you mean offshore makes up most of the action.  Im a member at bookmaker and betjam which are (along with thier brother and sister books) the only two I have not seen frequently crapped on in the industry section on here.  And bm calls me 2x a week wanting me to deposit 50-100 bucks, Ive never played big with them.

 

How the hell is that a lot of the action?  My roomate talks about wanting to start betting, I wont refer him to a good book b/c Ive had accounts with them and if I want to reupp and start betting with them again I cant have someone else logging into a different account from my home.  The only other good one I havent heard loads of smack talked about is Pinny and they dont take US players and I played with them back in the day.

 

Now locals might on the whole in the USA have a bigger handle than the Vegas books combined but if you think theres more being wagered online your wrong, if there was BM wouldnt call me so much looking for a 100 buck deposit even though I am a small behind fish to them.

And this is no me talking smack about those books I love them both, I also like Intertops they have paid me back in the day thats a nice little one to have some money in even if they dont have the perks and I dont think they are linked to another book.

 

(I love BM I just dont want to put  in 25 or 50 b/c it will distract me from my real gambling with my dudes, Illl throw a grand in with them and Bet Jam when I can afford to so I can line shop a little and bet first and second halfs which I cant do with my locals).

 

You think I would ever deposit a cent with a place where I have heard more than 1 person on here complain about???

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#19
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:03:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wilk704:

Originally Posted by powerade]

the city runs the sports world...

1st - They don't know who is going to win. The spread is designed to make the game even. Books don't rely on 1 game where everyone is betting on one side. They rely on thousands and thousands of games where overtime 90% of sports bettors will lose because of bad money management and inability to pick games.  

2nd - I would say offshore makes up for much much MUCH more of the action.

 

just my .02


 

Buddy you are one of the smartest man on this website, i guess outside the ones who people actually pay to get their picks from.

Vegas Sports Gambling is not done by Mr. Rothstein ( sorry americans but vegas is not like casino anymore)

Many odds makers have Actuarial Science degrees.and just like blackjack and every other game that takes probabiity into factor they are the first ones to be hired for sports gambling....

After that it is all on us shmos who think they have a "system" or "process" .... to either bet the right winner or go down in flames like mostly everyone does.....

Its said that people use this site for information because there are more idiots on this site than I have ever seen....There 60 year old man who are degenerate gamblers who come on here and fill younger americans with bets that flop because they do not know the science in this.....

Oh and when people talk about vegas they are fuckin stupid.... look at the odds of just one game like the OKLAHOMA/TEXAS GAME

LV Hilton -3.5  Stations -4 MGM -3.5 Caesars -4

They are different because all the hotels use their own actuarial science guys..... Pinnacle????? seriously?????

Sportsbook, Bodog, Beted, Sportsbetting, moneybooks, fuckin any of them are off-shore and go off of one of these hotels.....



Maybe I'm misunderstanding this post but if you think the offshore books are setting their lines off of the Vegas hotels then you are seriously misinformed. They may open lines earlier (it's actually not that hard to get within range of where lines will open) but if a Vegas casino has had a line -7 for an hour and Pinnacle comes out and opens -7.5 that line in Vegas will go to -7.5 faster than greased lightning and it is rarely if ever the other way around.
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#20
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:05:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WestHamUnited:

What do you mean offshore makes up most of the action.  Im a member at bookmaker and betjam which are (along with thier brother and sister books) the only two I have not seen frequently crapped on in the industry section on here.  And bm calls me 2x a week wanting me to deposit 50-100 bucks, Ive never played big with them.

 

How the hell is that a lot of the action?  My roomate talks about wanting to start betting, I wont refer him to a good book b/c Ive had accounts with them and if I want to reupp and start betting with them again I cant have someone else logging into a different account from my home.  The only other good one I havent heard loads of smack talked about is Pinny and they dont take US players and I played with them back in the day.

 

Now locals might on the whole in the USA have a bigger handle than the Vegas books combined but if you think theres more being wagered online your wrong, if there was BM wouldnt call me so much looking for a 100 buck deposit even though I am a small behind fish to them.

And this is no me talking smack about those books I love them both, I also like Intertops they have paid me back in the day thats a nice little one to have some money in even if they dont have the perks and I dont think they are linked to another book.

 

(I love BM I just dont want to put  in 25 or 50 b/c it will distract me from my real gambling with my dudes, Illl throw a grand in with them and Bet Jam when I can afford to so I can line shop a little and bet first and second halfs which I cant do with my locals).

 

You think I would ever deposit a cent with a place where I have heard more than 1 person on here complain about???




Read something about something before posting garbage like this

Its a proven fact the online books take WAYYYYYY more (10X even I saw somehere) than Vegas sportsbooks

Get your facts straight before you waste everyones time with your post that is entirely false

Man the misinformation on this site from the posters is just awful. Can I be your bookie?
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#21
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:08:11 AM

darn no retire rich early...... he is my client

Rich Early is abolutely fuckin right..... off shore websites make more money in 1 day of sports gamblin than most hotels will see in a week....

But hey these guys have a system

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#22
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:12:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Of course there are variables within a game and of course they miss plenty. You are the probably the same guy who looked at the Indi/Houston box score week 1 with a total of 58 and said, "wow that flew over!" without realizing the game was a foot away from going under the total of 47.

I've won and lost enough NBA totals to know how tight the lines can be there. Are they occasionally way off? Yup, but more often than not they are spot on.

See...guys like you, like to think you are on an equal playing field with the books and that sportsbetting is 100% based on talent and the other variables between the lines. That's fine. Keep up that narcissistic thinking.

You think Houston vs Oakland this week is a line to draw equal action? FIne put your money on Houston and come back here Sunday Night and complain how you "got moosed." It humors me every week when it happens...

 

Yup.  Vegas is always willing to take the chance of th epublic getting smoked on these.  VEgas rarely gets their clocks cleaned.  The one instance I can think of is last year when the Pats played in London and smoked Tampa and Indy covered too, and they were all crying in gaming today that they were a week from going out of buisiness.

You don't think someone from somewhere could have slipped Ricky Dobbs of Navy who has no chance of going to the NFL 50k to fumble on the 1 yard line twice and make sure they dont cover on the Sunday before NFL starts and everyone is going to be taking the Naval Academy?

 

Obviously most of the time the line makers are happy to let the games themselves played out but they are a buisiness who must protect themselves and they will take any opportunity possible to screw the public.

 

Its tougher for them to do in the Pros, this week Vegas needed Ryan Fitzpatric to be motivated to cover against the Pats, they could have gotten crushed on that game but didnt and raked it in.  In college they ccan protect themselves easier in similar games, (epsecially basketball) the Navy and Dobbs is a good example, another would be last years SDST-Air Force game if anyone remembers that Im sure the secondary for Air Force were influenced by someone.

 

People are smartening up, why do you tihnk reverse line movement is the new line movement?

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#23
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:13:04 AM
QUOTE

I didn't realize what I was dealing with: This explains a lot<IMG src="http://images.covers.com/covers/emoticons/cool.gif" >

Originally Posted by RetireRichEarly:

Hello and thank you for reading my post. Let me tell you a bit about myself and my goal here at Covers with RetireRichEarlySports, aka RRE INC.

99% of sports bettors lose in the long haul. Many have winning weeks, months, even years but few stand the test of time and basically none (less than 1%) can honestly say they're up lifetime. However, most people feel its because of poor handicapping and that's where I differ from other "services" because my #1 objective is proper money management, not handicapping, as crazy as that sounds.

I say this because I believe most intelligent cappers hit at a high enough percentage to win consistently but their bad bankroll management does them in. Also, with the new exchanges and such around nowadays the 52.4% break-even mark isn't even that anymore, no capper worth a dime pays -110 on a straight bet anymore.

So I am actually more of a "account manager" than a picks guy, even though my picks come along with any service. My point is again, money management is what wins long term. There are plenty of guys who can hit 51%+, but how you make your bets is how you can truly build a bankroll.

Also, and this is where I'll lose most of you, but my plan is not a "get rich quick" scheme. If properly implemented it will take anywhere from 6 months to 3-5 years for you to fully reach your goal. But that ultimate goal can be turning $1000 into $100,000 OVER TIME, not in one week or month or season. I will explain

My goal here at RRE INC is to double a bankroll(s). To win consistently you have to have an identifiable bankroll and a plan with that bankroll and display iron discipline. Most people want to turn $100 into $10,000 in a week and the bottom line is it just doesn't happen. Actually that's wrong, it does happen, about 0,0004% of the time. So you can try to be that guy, or you can follow a solid plan/system.

What Im going to be doing here is showing the board how to double a bankroll. I am starting with a bankroll of $5,000 and by the end of this thread I will have doubled the bankroll of $5,000 to $10,000. This will honestly probably take anywhere from 3 months to 12 months depending on how the season goes but the key is we will double the bankroll. If we "run hot" it could even be as early as 2 months and if its a tough season it could be a year but the key is we will double the bankroll.

Possibly 12 months for $5,000??? Yes I know this is where Ive lost most of you again but think of this. How would you like to say you were up $5,000 for the last 12 months?? Another thing, this is not exciting and at times its downright miserable and boring and doesn't even feel like gambling. It sucks, but do you want to win or do you want to "gamble?"  The key initially is how to learn to double your bankroll consistently, not the dollar amount. Just think, you double $5000 to $10000. Say you come back next season with $5000 and turn it into $10,000 to $20,000 and so on. $5,000 turns into $160,000 in 5 years that way so it may seem pointless to start small but when profits compound under proper BR management great things can happen.


So the first objective here is to double our $5000 bankroll.

I will start by breaking up our $5000 bankroll into (2) separate $2500 bankrolls.

I will start with $2500 and try to double the $2500 using one of my more aggressive approaches. I basically have about 10 different "aggression levels" for my plans and this one is the 3rd or 4th most aggressive. This plan has approx a 60-75% chance success, therefore a 25-40% chance of failure. Hypothetically, should "Phase 1" fail (as we will call the first $2500) we then use then next $2500 (Phase 2) and use a less aggressive approach, one of the safest plans I have, whose success rate is over 95% but very passive and low risk and long term. For those interested in quicker double-ups we have more aggressive approaches but those also are higher risk. Our safest plan is over 98% successful but takes almost 18 months to fully reach.  Therefore we will take the first half of our bankroll and put it in a moderately aggressive plan.

Ok so here we go with Phase 1 :

OVERALL BANKROLL : $5000

PHASE 1 BANKROLL : $2500

Phase 1 - (0-0) +/-$0

Monday 7/26 Play :

Toronto Blue Jays -1 (-168)  Risking $420 for $250


Don't be scared by the high juice and feel that's how all my picks are gonna be, this is just my top play today. 90% of my plays are in the standard +120 to -120 range but like Ive said, the picks are 25% of the equation, the BR management is the other 75%.

I will explain all phases of my plan I have as this thread goes on and to anyone who asks. Everything in this thread and this trial is free and the trial goes until the $5000 is doubled.

My goal here is to prove my system first to the board, and then after I gain credibility take on some clients and "manage" their betting account for them (for a fee obviously).  When I say "manage their accounts" I IN NO WAY mean ever handling a clients money or having access to their accounts, just wanted to clarify that as it could be interpreted that way. Simply put, each client has different bankrolls and goals and I want to tailor a plan specifically for each players needs and wants.

Any questions please post in this thread or feel free to email me at : RetireRichEarlySports@yahoo.com. I am currently taking clients now as well but I'm not even gonna list any prices or plans as this is a FREE TRIAL. If you'd like to sign up already let me know thru email.

Also most days there will be a play but not everyday. Some days are simply a "pass."

Once again thanks for reading and Good Luck

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#24
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:13:37 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by andarmac99:



Maybe I'm misunderstanding this post but if you think the offshore books are setting their lines off of the Vegas hotels then you are seriously misinformed. They may open lines earlier (it's actually not that hard to get within range of where lines will open) but if a Vegas casino has had a line -7 for an hour and Pinnacle comes out and opens -7.5 that line in Vegas will go to -7.5 faster than greased lightning and it is rarely if ever the other way around.

 

No you are just a moron..... vegas is not vegas, vegas is a city which holds casinos.... if you go to the MGM and ask what the spread for the OU/TEXAS game they will say -3.5 and then walk across to the Paris and they will have it at -4....

Sorry buddy but if pinnacle was the end all be all of sports gambling they would have more than just a shitty website..... look at current odds for the OU/TEXAS game.... there might be 4 vegas hotels that have it at -4 and another 5 that have it at -3.5.... sorry but they are not looking at pinnacle and asking " so what should i do boss?"

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#25
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:14:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WestHamUnited:

 

Yup.  Vegas is always willing to take the chance of th epublic getting smoked on these.  VEgas rarely gets their clocks cleaned.  The one instance I can think of is last year when the Pats played in London and smoked Tampa and Indy covered too, and they were all crying in gaming today that they were a week from going out of buisiness.

You don't think someone from somewhere could have slipped Ricky Dobbs of Navy who has no chance of going to the NFL 50k to fumble on the 1 yard line twice and make sure they dont cover on the Sunday before NFL starts and everyone is going to be taking the Naval Academy?

 

Obviously most of the time the line makers are happy to let the games themselves played out but they are a buisiness who must protect themselves and they will take any opportunity possible to screw the public.

 

Its tougher for them to do in the Pros, this week Vegas needed Ryan Fitzpatric to be motivated to cover against the Pats, they could have gotten crushed on that game if someone on the Pats picked him on his last TD drive but didnt and raked it in.  In college they ccan protect themselves easier in similar games, (epsecially basketball) the Navy and Dobbs is a good example, another would be last years SDST-Air Force game if anyone remembers that Im sure the secondary for Air Force were influenced by someone.

 

People are smartening up, why do you tihnk reverse line movement is the new line movement?

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