AFL Week 7 (Model Picks)

Forum: Arena Football
Author: [Arena Football] Topic: AFL Week 7 (Model Picks)
Mattythemodel PM Mattythemodel
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Washington
 
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Posted: 5/3/2013 12:11:17 PM

Tonights play:

2. IOWA +5 (18.89)

Iowa is currently my second best bet of the weekend.

Small lean towards:

SA vs IOWA UNDER 98 (7.86)

Greenikes PM Greenikes
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Posted: 5/4/2013 5:44:09 PM
Dude, you are good at this AFL stuff.  Any plays for tonight?
Mattythemodel PM Mattythemodel
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Posted: 5/4/2013 6:36:04 PM

Thanks for the recognition Greenikes.

Here are my picks for the 7:00 games:

1.Pit vs Orl Under 96.5 (14.33)

Leans on:

Ari vs Jac Over 118.5 (7.24)

Ari -6.5 (7.13)

 

 

 

onlinechamp PM onlinechamp
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Florida
 
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Posted: 5/4/2013 7:28:39 PM
any other games you like missed the arizona game
onlinechamp PM onlinechamp
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onlinechamp
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Posted: 5/4/2013 7:30:54 PM
you can bet sports in washington REALLY? which sports
Mattythemodel PM Mattythemodel
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Posted: 5/4/2013 8:06:35 PM

Here are the rest of my picks for the night. I apologize for posting late this week. I'm in Reno this week and I didnt want to move any lines before I got my chance to bet.

1.Spokane -7.5 (18.5) My bet moved this line at the Peppermill by a full point to -8.5

2.Cleveland +12.5 (14.46) Picking Cleveland outright!

3.Tampa Bay -18 (13.26)

4.Chicago +6 (8.51)

Leans:

Phi vs Chi Under 113 (7.7)

TB vs NO Under 107 (6.96)

 

onlinechamp PM onlinechamp
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Posted: 5/4/2013 9:03:01 PM
what do the numbers 14.46 mean?

Mattythemodel PM Mattythemodel
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Posted: 5/5/2013 10:14:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by onlinechamp:

what do the numbers 14.46 mean?

That number is actually the difference between the casino's line and my line. So the 14.46 in the Cleveland game means that my model picked Cleveland to win by 1.96 (12.5-14.46=-1.96). It was a strange pick and I personally didn't agree with it but I post my picks as the are, no arbitrary decision making. A pick with a difference of 9 or higher should win around 65% of the time and that is where I usually set my threshold for making a bet. Differences of 18 or more should win around 96%.

Next week I'll post earlier. I went to Reno this weekend for a vacation and I'm not planning on returning till the NFL season starts.

euellgong PM euellgong
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Posted: 1/27/2014 2:06:23 PM
you are good at this 
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