sup ITP I think Phixer is decent, he plays by the rules but somehow he gets boxed every now and then, I don't know why covers does that...a guy I watch is Phantom, he seems to have half a gambling brain in his head and is a straight shooter, other than that not many
Hey Oz, do you remember about a year ago when that fella on the soccer forum said his biggest play ever was on the Brazilian soccer match Oeste v Commercial over 2.5 and it ended 1-1 and we all felt bad for him? Well Oeste might be worth a look for overs today at home vs. a club that scores and leaks away in Atletico GO, just something to keep an eye on as I don't know Brazil soccer but ever since that bet I've followed Oeste (Commercial got relegated I think)
sup ITP I think Phixer is decent, he plays by the rules but somehow he gets boxed every now and then, I don't know why covers does that...a guy I watch is Phantom, he seems to have half a gambling brain in his head and is a straight shooter, other than that not many
Hey Oz, do you remember about a year ago when that fella on the soccer forum said his biggest play ever was on the Brazilian soccer match Oeste v Commercial over 2.5 and it ended 1-1 and we all felt bad for him? Well Oeste might be worth a look for overs today at home vs. a club that scores and leaks away in Atletico GO, just something to keep an eye on as I don't know Brazil soccer but ever since that bet I've followed Oeste (Commercial got relegated I think)
solid insight SW...two of the best situational/contrarian bettors i've come across were rjsizzle and andarmac but both aren't around any more. 165yds also had great runs but hes fallen off hard the past two years.
solid insight SW...two of the best situational/contrarian bettors i've come across were rjsizzle and andarmac but both aren't around any more. 165yds also had great runs but hes fallen off hard the past two years.
sup ITP I think Phixer is decent, he plays by the rules but somehow he gets boxed every now and then, I don't know why covers does that...a guy I watch is Phantom, he seems to have half a gambling brain in his head and is a straight shooter, other than that not many
hey SW, yeh true phixer does, yeah its bizarre anyhow
sup ITP I think Phixer is decent, he plays by the rules but somehow he gets boxed every now and then, I don't know why covers does that...a guy I watch is Phantom, he seems to have half a gambling brain in his head and is a straight shooter, other than that not many
hey SW, yeh true phixer does, yeah its bizarre anyhow
i bet entire bankroll 20 bags to netherland to win before 2nd half with odds 2.7 at 5dimes, clearly this was a mistake, and they cancelled it, i saw they cancelled it, just i was betting, netherland made it 1-1, i am sure that if for some reason netherland didnt get the win, they wont cancel the bet and grade it as loss, but they cancel winning bet, i hate bookies when they do cheap stuff like this
i bet entire bankroll 20 bags to netherland to win before 2nd half with odds 2.7 at 5dimes, clearly this was a mistake, and they cancelled it, i saw they cancelled it, just i was betting, netherland made it 1-1, i am sure that if for some reason netherland didnt get the win, they wont cancel the bet and grade it as loss, but they cancel winning bet, i hate bookies when they do cheap stuff like this
Yeah, Aussie, this is one thing I do not like about USA. It is a bit better in academia where a typical vacation time is about 3 weeks, but in France a typical vacation time for folks working on the same project as I do is 2+ months. Talk about the difference in quality of living.
Anyway, it is nice to see that you are coming over. I'll be happy to meet up with you, if I am still going to be around these parts.
Some interesting volleyball action at the women's world cup. The competition system is pretty complicated and leaves a lot of room for all four teams playing today to advance and leave idle USA and China in the dust.
First, Brazil vs Dominican Rep. Brazil won their last three matches vs DR 3-0, Brazil is unbeaten so far at this WC (Italy too); they are experienced, undisputed #1 in the World, and very motivated to win the WC. But DR has been playing out of their minds and they lost only two matches, both 2-3 to China. And, check this out, the president of the federation is Brazilian, the vice-president is from DR and that said vice-president is the agent of ALL Dominican players. Brazil has already advanced to the semis, DR winning 3-2 today will make both teams happy: both will advance and Brazil gets to keep their 1st place in the group. So is the fix in or not ? Anyway, I think DR ML@+500 has some value. Think about the extra money the DR's main honcho will get if his players medal. My only concern is that this Brazilian president of federation is actually not that popular in Brazil. Hmm.
Second, Italy-Russia. Again, both teams will be happy if Russia wins 3-1. Russia has won their last three matches against Italy 3-1. But Italy is playing at home and they might not want to tank here and Russia has been struggling at this WC. Still, I think Russia -1.5 sets @+160 holds some value.
Hey Ax, I definitely want to catch up when I come over mate. I know your near LA so it will be easy to meet up unless you re-locate because of your career (or possible change)..
Yeah, Aussie, this is one thing I do not like about USA. It is a bit better in academia where a typical vacation time is about 3 weeks, but in France a typical vacation time for folks working on the same project as I do is 2+ months. Talk about the difference in quality of living.
Anyway, it is nice to see that you are coming over. I'll be happy to meet up with you, if I am still going to be around these parts.
Some interesting volleyball action at the women's world cup. The competition system is pretty complicated and leaves a lot of room for all four teams playing today to advance and leave idle USA and China in the dust.
First, Brazil vs Dominican Rep. Brazil won their last three matches vs DR 3-0, Brazil is unbeaten so far at this WC (Italy too); they are experienced, undisputed #1 in the World, and very motivated to win the WC. But DR has been playing out of their minds and they lost only two matches, both 2-3 to China. And, check this out, the president of the federation is Brazilian, the vice-president is from DR and that said vice-president is the agent of ALL Dominican players. Brazil has already advanced to the semis, DR winning 3-2 today will make both teams happy: both will advance and Brazil gets to keep their 1st place in the group. So is the fix in or not ? Anyway, I think DR ML@+500 has some value. Think about the extra money the DR's main honcho will get if his players medal. My only concern is that this Brazilian president of federation is actually not that popular in Brazil. Hmm.
Second, Italy-Russia. Again, both teams will be happy if Russia wins 3-1. Russia has won their last three matches against Italy 3-1. But Italy is playing at home and they might not want to tank here and Russia has been struggling at this WC. Still, I think Russia -1.5 sets @+160 holds some value.
Hey Ax, I definitely want to catch up when I come over mate. I know your near LA so it will be easy to meet up unless you re-locate because of your career (or possible change)..
sup ITP I think Phixer is decent, he plays by the rules but somehow he gets boxed every now and then, I don't know why covers does that...a guy I watch is Phantom, he seems to have half a gambling brain in his head and is a straight shooter, other than that not many
Hey Oz, do you remember about a year ago when that fella on the soccer forum said his biggest play ever was on the Brazilian soccer match Oeste v Commercial over 2.5 and it ended 1-1 and we all felt bad for him? Well Oeste might be worth a look for overs today at home vs. a club that scores and leaks away in Atletico GO, just something to keep an eye on as I don't know Brazil soccer but ever since that bet I've followed Oeste (Commercial got relegated I think)
Hey Wagers,
I do remember that guy from last year, "The Crazy Frenchman" was his name.. Will have to keep an eye out for those teams.. Don't forget fellas, Mallorca are playing a team called Alaves in around 16 hours time.. I think the over is solid in that game.
sup ITP I think Phixer is decent, he plays by the rules but somehow he gets boxed every now and then, I don't know why covers does that...a guy I watch is Phantom, he seems to have half a gambling brain in his head and is a straight shooter, other than that not many
Hey Oz, do you remember about a year ago when that fella on the soccer forum said his biggest play ever was on the Brazilian soccer match Oeste v Commercial over 2.5 and it ended 1-1 and we all felt bad for him? Well Oeste might be worth a look for overs today at home vs. a club that scores and leaks away in Atletico GO, just something to keep an eye on as I don't know Brazil soccer but ever since that bet I've followed Oeste (Commercial got relegated I think)
Hey Wagers,
I do remember that guy from last year, "The Crazy Frenchman" was his name.. Will have to keep an eye out for those teams.. Don't forget fellas, Mallorca are playing a team called Alaves in around 16 hours time.. I think the over is solid in that game.
i bet entire bankroll 20 bags to netherland to win before 2nd half with odds 2.7 at 5dimes, clearly this was a mistake, and they cancelled it, i saw they cancelled it, just i was betting, netherland made it 1-1, i am sure that if for some reason netherland didnt get the win, they wont cancel the bet and grade it as loss, but they cancel winning bet, i hate bookies when they do cheap stuff like this
Guy what are you doing buddy? Entire bankroll on 1 bet? That's silly... I think I know what the issue is..
When you say "20 bags" do you mean 20% of your bankroll?
Because when Wagers says 33 bags, its not 33% of his bankroll..
I think you might be betting too much of your bankroll each play buddy.. If you have some extra "playing" money not rent/mortgage money, put say $500 or $1000 into an account (if your only new to handicapping) and please wait for the NBA season mate.. You seem to be burning through your money way to quickly.. Not good if you want to do this for a long time. Thats why I have been keeping my plays to 1 unit after WNBA because Im waiting for NBA which I think I have a better understanding about.
Also if that was soccer, try and keep your bets low on soccer because anything is possible in that sport..
i bet entire bankroll 20 bags to netherland to win before 2nd half with odds 2.7 at 5dimes, clearly this was a mistake, and they cancelled it, i saw they cancelled it, just i was betting, netherland made it 1-1, i am sure that if for some reason netherland didnt get the win, they wont cancel the bet and grade it as loss, but they cancel winning bet, i hate bookies when they do cheap stuff like this
Guy what are you doing buddy? Entire bankroll on 1 bet? That's silly... I think I know what the issue is..
When you say "20 bags" do you mean 20% of your bankroll?
Because when Wagers says 33 bags, its not 33% of his bankroll..
I think you might be betting too much of your bankroll each play buddy.. If you have some extra "playing" money not rent/mortgage money, put say $500 or $1000 into an account (if your only new to handicapping) and please wait for the NBA season mate.. You seem to be burning through your money way to quickly.. Not good if you want to do this for a long time. Thats why I have been keeping my plays to 1 unit after WNBA because Im waiting for NBA which I think I have a better understanding about.
Also if that was soccer, try and keep your bets low on soccer because anything is possible in that sport..
hey, agree with aussie this is the place to be,... micalf,wagers, axion, aussie and myself are always here to help each other... if u want info on 1st qtrs. for NBA I can help ..but in general these guys DO look after each other, far more civilised over here
You guys do have a nice place here, and feel fortunate to have found it. :)
hey, agree with aussie this is the place to be,... micalf,wagers, axion, aussie and myself are always here to help each other... if u want info on 1st qtrs. for NBA I can help ..but in general these guys DO look after each other, far more civilised over here
You guys do have a nice place here, and feel fortunate to have found it. :)
Okay Gents, licked my wounds after that Texans loss, and putting my last 5 plays in for the week. That was a tough loss, as it was a good bet; unlike my Skins dog play against Hawks. Both ended up see-sawing until the end and crapped my pants both times, haha! Here we go:
Miami +3 x 10 *Miami U 46 x10 Buff +3 x5 NYG +3 x10 *SF O 43.5
82% of bets on Pack. Philbin 9 years at GB, coming off bye week, heat/humidity in Miami favors Fins. Pack outgained by 300 yards this season; Fins outgaining opponents 100+ more yards.
Kyle Orton and Buffalo defense at home. Yes, Bills have choppy history (Buff is 3-10 ATS coming off a win past 3 years), but Orton is the difference maker. This is a good, balanced team. Pats can't orchestrate magic week-in/out with that crappy roster. :)
Giants healthier, Vegas over-rated by public (Vegas has them 14th). PHI weak home record ATS (8 of last 31); when PHI favored 2nd week in a row, 4-20 ATS. O-line still injured. NYG strong road team, 62% ATS on road under Coughlin. The funny thing on this game was when Aussie posted it start of week, I thought the Giants were favored (-2.5, because they are the better team), which is why I hesitated, haha.
The '*' games are from NumberFire subscription service I started over a week ago. If you aren't familiar with it, it makes predictions based on finding similar historical matchups, running iterations, etc. I don't have a feel for over/unders, so i'm going with these 3-star plays (very few of these; most are 1 star, say 80%). I get the Miami logic, as the under is consistent with Rogers being held back and Miami not having a strong offense.
Watch out on SD/Den: 0 win teams week 6 or later getting points are 63% ATS, and 75% coming off a bye (in Oak's case). BUT, Oakland is 2-9 ATS coming off a bye, haha! I actually like the Chargers -7, since Oak has zero offense.
Okay Gents, licked my wounds after that Texans loss, and putting my last 5 plays in for the week. That was a tough loss, as it was a good bet; unlike my Skins dog play against Hawks. Both ended up see-sawing until the end and crapped my pants both times, haha! Here we go:
Miami +3 x 10 *Miami U 46 x10 Buff +3 x5 NYG +3 x10 *SF O 43.5
82% of bets on Pack. Philbin 9 years at GB, coming off bye week, heat/humidity in Miami favors Fins. Pack outgained by 300 yards this season; Fins outgaining opponents 100+ more yards.
Kyle Orton and Buffalo defense at home. Yes, Bills have choppy history (Buff is 3-10 ATS coming off a win past 3 years), but Orton is the difference maker. This is a good, balanced team. Pats can't orchestrate magic week-in/out with that crappy roster. :)
Giants healthier, Vegas over-rated by public (Vegas has them 14th). PHI weak home record ATS (8 of last 31); when PHI favored 2nd week in a row, 4-20 ATS. O-line still injured. NYG strong road team, 62% ATS on road under Coughlin. The funny thing on this game was when Aussie posted it start of week, I thought the Giants were favored (-2.5, because they are the better team), which is why I hesitated, haha.
The '*' games are from NumberFire subscription service I started over a week ago. If you aren't familiar with it, it makes predictions based on finding similar historical matchups, running iterations, etc. I don't have a feel for over/unders, so i'm going with these 3-star plays (very few of these; most are 1 star, say 80%). I get the Miami logic, as the under is consistent with Rogers being held back and Miami not having a strong offense.
Watch out on SD/Den: 0 win teams week 6 or later getting points are 63% ATS, and 75% coming off a bye (in Oak's case). BUT, Oakland is 2-9 ATS coming off a bye, haha! I actually like the Chargers -7, since Oak has zero offense.
P.S. Correction - Miami U is 49, not 46. BUF is currently 2.5, which I'll take if it's still there tomorrow, but hoping the public comes back in to drive up to 3.
P.S. Correction - Miami U is 49, not 46. BUF is currently 2.5, which I'll take if it's still there tomorrow, but hoping the public comes back in to drive up to 3.
GL Erich hope you win...just remember there is nothing you come up with that Vegas has not already thought of, that's where I think a lot of gamblers make their fatal mistake, and it's fatal meaning bye bye money
GL Erich hope you win...just remember there is nothing you come up with that Vegas has not already thought of, that's where I think a lot of gamblers make their fatal mistake, and it's fatal meaning bye bye money
I've said this before and I'll say it again b/c it's paid my rent but don't waste your time thinking of angles and this and that, I promise you they have guys not like you doing that for a living and computer programs...so the best way to beat the man is to watch closely what he offers you, that offering is as close to them tipping their hand as you'll ever get, use their own system to beat them
I've said this before and I'll say it again b/c it's paid my rent but don't waste your time thinking of angles and this and that, I promise you they have guys not like you doing that for a living and computer programs...so the best way to beat the man is to watch closely what he offers you, that offering is as close to them tipping their hand as you'll ever get, use their own system to beat them
I don't know squat about UCLA but I do know Oregon is a very proud program as I follow them and the Beavers. I think we go into UCLA asnd put a whuppin on the Bruins in an early west coast game. there is nothing better for a "National Championshion" calibre team to lose at home then go on the road in conference to get their attention. This isn't a team that will play close to the vest they will win and do so convincingly to satisfy the polls. 55-32 Ducks
I don't know squat about UCLA but I do know Oregon is a very proud program as I follow them and the Beavers. I think we go into UCLA asnd put a whuppin on the Bruins in an early west coast game. there is nothing better for a "National Championshion" calibre team to lose at home then go on the road in conference to get their attention. This isn't a team that will play close to the vest they will win and do so convincingly to satisfy the polls. 55-32 Ducks
Guy what are you doing buddy? Entire bankroll on 1 bet? That's silly... I think I know what the issue is..
When you say "20 bags" do you mean 20% of your bankroll?
Because when Wagers says 33 bags, its not 33% of his bankroll..
I think you might be betting too much of your bankroll each play buddy.. If you have some extra "playing" money not rent/mortgage money, put say $500 or $1000 into an account (if your only new to handicapping) and please wait for the NBA season mate.. You seem to be burning through your money way to quickly.. Not good if you want to do this for a long time. Thats why I have been keeping my plays to 1 unit after WNBA because Im waiting for NBA which I think I have a better understanding about.
Also if that was soccer, try and keep your bets low on soccer because anything is possible in that sport..
Oz you are right, anything is possible, but netherlands was playing with kazakhstan in holland, and after losing first game against czech, very very impossible that they would lose to kazakhstan in their home, with pre game odd being 1.05 to win, and when i saw odds 2.7 which was a clear error, but i still took, this odd was very valuable compared to the situation, i bet my whole bankroll, not 20% of it, and they cancelled and returned it, if they didnt cancel, it would be 50 bags right now, anyway, i was trying to be crafty, but didnt work
Guy what are you doing buddy? Entire bankroll on 1 bet? That's silly... I think I know what the issue is..
When you say "20 bags" do you mean 20% of your bankroll?
Because when Wagers says 33 bags, its not 33% of his bankroll..
I think you might be betting too much of your bankroll each play buddy.. If you have some extra "playing" money not rent/mortgage money, put say $500 or $1000 into an account (if your only new to handicapping) and please wait for the NBA season mate.. You seem to be burning through your money way to quickly.. Not good if you want to do this for a long time. Thats why I have been keeping my plays to 1 unit after WNBA because Im waiting for NBA which I think I have a better understanding about.
Also if that was soccer, try and keep your bets low on soccer because anything is possible in that sport..
Oz you are right, anything is possible, but netherlands was playing with kazakhstan in holland, and after losing first game against czech, very very impossible that they would lose to kazakhstan in their home, with pre game odd being 1.05 to win, and when i saw odds 2.7 which was a clear error, but i still took, this odd was very valuable compared to the situation, i bet my whole bankroll, not 20% of it, and they cancelled and returned it, if they didnt cancel, it would be 50 bags right now, anyway, i was trying to be crafty, but didnt work
GL Erich hope you win...just remember there is nothing you come up with that Vegas has not already thought of, that's where I think a lot of gamblers make their fatal mistake, and it's fatal meaning bye bye money
Thanks Mate. Like you (I think, but let me know if I'm off), I'm not in any way trying to outsmart Vegas, for the exact reasons you state, among others. I'm betting against the public; specifically, the "dumb public". Light researching like I do got me a 80% hit rate for March Madness and another 120 bags in NBA playoffs last year. Found you guys here, who helped me with the WNBA. For the most part, Vegas makes it money on a cut of the transaction volume, with a little extra by being on the "wiseguy" side (and protecting itself against those same wiseguys placing bets). So lines are simply what the book thinks will draw the most volume on both sides. Specific sport knowledge, historical statistical trends, etc. (combinations of all those, really) help to show when the line offers value.
But since you mention this, I'm curious to know what your general approach is, if it's different than what I've just put forward. I absolutely respect your results and commentary, that's for sure. :)
GL Erich hope you win...just remember there is nothing you come up with that Vegas has not already thought of, that's where I think a lot of gamblers make their fatal mistake, and it's fatal meaning bye bye money
Thanks Mate. Like you (I think, but let me know if I'm off), I'm not in any way trying to outsmart Vegas, for the exact reasons you state, among others. I'm betting against the public; specifically, the "dumb public". Light researching like I do got me a 80% hit rate for March Madness and another 120 bags in NBA playoffs last year. Found you guys here, who helped me with the WNBA. For the most part, Vegas makes it money on a cut of the transaction volume, with a little extra by being on the "wiseguy" side (and protecting itself against those same wiseguys placing bets). So lines are simply what the book thinks will draw the most volume on both sides. Specific sport knowledge, historical statistical trends, etc. (combinations of all those, really) help to show when the line offers value.
But since you mention this, I'm curious to know what your general approach is, if it's different than what I've just put forward. I absolutely respect your results and commentary, that's for sure. :)
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