Well I don't fly out to Switzerland until Sunday (Saturday US time) so I will have a play for the 1st game.. Gotta say the line is spot on with ATS for this 1st game but I do really like the over.. Don't forget, the Sky don't play much defense and even though they kept the Fever to a pathetic score yesterday, the Fever aren't a very good offensive side and only shot 34% of something ridiculous in Game #3 vs Sky. Mercury on the other hand are the most efficient shooting team in the league and they got their groove back in Game #3 vs the Lynx. Remember how easily the Dream scored against the Sky, well I think the Mercury find it even easier to score on the Sky.
Well I don't fly out to Switzerland until Sunday (Saturday US time) so I will have a play for the 1st game.. Gotta say the line is spot on with ATS for this 1st game but I do really like the over.. Don't forget, the Sky don't play much defense and even though they kept the Fever to a pathetic score yesterday, the Fever aren't a very good offensive side and only shot 34% of something ridiculous in Game #3 vs Sky. Mercury on the other hand are the most efficient shooting team in the league and they got their groove back in Game #3 vs the Lynx. Remember how easily the Dream scored against the Sky, well I think the Mercury find it even easier to score on the Sky.
well I was going to piggy back on Joe's thread until you got back but since you are here, here we go... I'm a firm believer of history and so I look to the last time a team as dominant as Phx rolled into the Finals and those results because I feel they are a good indicator of what may happen. To me the last dominant team was in fact Minn last season 2013 when they barely lost a game last 2 months of season and swept through the playoffs to a Championship. In game 1 of the Finals an unblemished Minn team was hosting a red hot Atl team that after losing their 1st conf semi to Wash, righted the ship and rolled thru Wash and Indy in a sweep. This was a pretty potent Atl team mind you. They proceeded to go into Minn in game 1 of the Finals and get demolished 84-59. In fact, in sweeping Atl Minn only gave up 59, 63 and 77pts to Atl. In the 2012 Final it was Minn limping in with a loss and a couple scurvy 1pt wins to reach the Finals and they faced a red hot Indy team that went into Minn and won 76-70. 2011 showed probably the 2nd best Minn team that cruised into the Finals and yet again beat a hot Atl team in game 1 88-74. Now mind you there are some big differences this season: all of the past game 1 Finals occurred in early to mid October, with this condensed year game 1 is a whole month earlier. Also, all the past game 1's have been at 8pm EST, we get an early 3:30 EST start. The main points I take away from this is #1 Chi is no Atl of years past, they have been fortunate to play teams in Atl and Indy that imploded on themselves #2 Chi is more than overdue for a beating on the road having won in Atl 81-80, had a relatively close loss in Indy 70-77 then just won in Indy 75-62 and #3 it is very difficult for a road team to get their footing in the 1st game of a Finals much less a rd team that has overachieved on the rd to the Finals. It is not unusual to see teams in the Finals lose by 15-20pts and this to me feels like the game Chi finally takes the beating they have avoided until now. 83-67 Phx Phx -9.5 20 bags Chi TT under 73 33 bags
well I was going to piggy back on Joe's thread until you got back but since you are here, here we go... I'm a firm believer of history and so I look to the last time a team as dominant as Phx rolled into the Finals and those results because I feel they are a good indicator of what may happen. To me the last dominant team was in fact Minn last season 2013 when they barely lost a game last 2 months of season and swept through the playoffs to a Championship. In game 1 of the Finals an unblemished Minn team was hosting a red hot Atl team that after losing their 1st conf semi to Wash, righted the ship and rolled thru Wash and Indy in a sweep. This was a pretty potent Atl team mind you. They proceeded to go into Minn in game 1 of the Finals and get demolished 84-59. In fact, in sweeping Atl Minn only gave up 59, 63 and 77pts to Atl. In the 2012 Final it was Minn limping in with a loss and a couple scurvy 1pt wins to reach the Finals and they faced a red hot Indy team that went into Minn and won 76-70. 2011 showed probably the 2nd best Minn team that cruised into the Finals and yet again beat a hot Atl team in game 1 88-74. Now mind you there are some big differences this season: all of the past game 1 Finals occurred in early to mid October, with this condensed year game 1 is a whole month earlier. Also, all the past game 1's have been at 8pm EST, we get an early 3:30 EST start. The main points I take away from this is #1 Chi is no Atl of years past, they have been fortunate to play teams in Atl and Indy that imploded on themselves #2 Chi is more than overdue for a beating on the road having won in Atl 81-80, had a relatively close loss in Indy 70-77 then just won in Indy 75-62 and #3 it is very difficult for a road team to get their footing in the 1st game of a Finals much less a rd team that has overachieved on the rd to the Finals. It is not unusual to see teams in the Finals lose by 15-20pts and this to me feels like the game Chi finally takes the beating they have avoided until now. 83-67 Phx Phx -9.5 20 bags Chi TT under 73 33 bags
Enjoy your trip Aussie. I am gonna miss your threads.
I was a bit surprised that Sky are only +525 dogs in this series right now. But the more I think about it the more it makes sense. Fowles is probably the only player who can play Griner straight up and possibly outplay her here and there. She has the size, experience, skills and more importantly fire in her belly to do that. The only position where PHX has a clear advantage is DT vs VDS, but DT can be pretty volatile and if her shots are not falling that could spell trouble for the Mercs. A lot will of course depend on the EDD's back.
Lots of unknowns. The Sky has already cost me twice by winning the two GM3s as big dogs. Will they do the same in the finals ? I really do not want to hedge my PHX futures bet at these odds, but I am also scared of Pokey and EDD and Fowles. Hmm. Anyway, GM1 should be fun; I have a vanilla lean on PHX 1H -5.5 & over 1H, but that is really a small, square lean. I sure hope the Mercs will not be complacent in the 1H, but who knows. The Sky have nothing to lose and I think they could surprise the Mercs early on. Might also play over in GM1: opened at 157 I think, now down to 154.5; hmm. I think it is too early to expect a defensive lockdown and the pace should be probably there in GM1, after the rest and all.
Enjoy your trip Aussie. I am gonna miss your threads.
I was a bit surprised that Sky are only +525 dogs in this series right now. But the more I think about it the more it makes sense. Fowles is probably the only player who can play Griner straight up and possibly outplay her here and there. She has the size, experience, skills and more importantly fire in her belly to do that. The only position where PHX has a clear advantage is DT vs VDS, but DT can be pretty volatile and if her shots are not falling that could spell trouble for the Mercs. A lot will of course depend on the EDD's back.
Lots of unknowns. The Sky has already cost me twice by winning the two GM3s as big dogs. Will they do the same in the finals ? I really do not want to hedge my PHX futures bet at these odds, but I am also scared of Pokey and EDD and Fowles. Hmm. Anyway, GM1 should be fun; I have a vanilla lean on PHX 1H -5.5 & over 1H, but that is really a small, square lean. I sure hope the Mercs will not be complacent in the 1H, but who knows. The Sky have nothing to lose and I think they could surprise the Mercs early on. Might also play over in GM1: opened at 157 I think, now down to 154.5; hmm. I think it is too early to expect a defensive lockdown and the pace should be probably there in GM1, after the rest and all.
we all saw what one of the greatest teams off all time (spurs) did to a REALLY good team in (miami). Now we get the greatest team of all time (phoenix) in the wnba. i expect phoenix to cover the spread in 3/3 or 3/4 games depending if chicago can steal one. under 155 may be good but -9.5 is better imo. wagers gonna be +53bags no doubt about it
we all saw what one of the greatest teams off all time (spurs) did to a REALLY good team in (miami). Now we get the greatest team of all time (phoenix) in the wnba. i expect phoenix to cover the spread in 3/3 or 3/4 games depending if chicago can steal one. under 155 may be good but -9.5 is better imo. wagers gonna be +53bags no doubt about it
Good stuuf AUSSIE ,Wagers and AXE. I cant see an angle on this first game. Honestly to damn sharp. I wanted to MAYBE go under but now it went down 3 pts. I think the best play is 1H under but I am not sold completely. I am seriously thinking parlaying PHO ML -550 and SOUTH ALABAMA (NCAAF)ML (when it comes out) I think that will be a MAX play for me. Going to count it as a win or loss MAX play. I dont see how i lose that at +100 iIs that fair WAGERS lol. Brutaljoe
Good stuuf AUSSIE ,Wagers and AXE. I cant see an angle on this first game. Honestly to damn sharp. I wanted to MAYBE go under but now it went down 3 pts. I think the best play is 1H under but I am not sold completely. I am seriously thinking parlaying PHO ML -550 and SOUTH ALABAMA (NCAAF)ML (when it comes out) I think that will be a MAX play for me. Going to count it as a win or loss MAX play. I dont see how i lose that at +100 iIs that fair WAGERS lol. Brutaljoe
Ok MAX play! Parlay PHO ML (I dont see how they lose here. IMHO this is a great matchup for PHO. Someone to neutralize Fowles, a better guard than the two white girls, a weak rebounding team in CHI that negates a weakness for PHO. I might be taking the minus 9.5 by tomorrow but right now just ML)& SOUTH ALABAMA (NCAAF) ML -101. I am counting it. I am out and forgetting my tallies but 9-4 MAX playoffs, I think 18-6 documented MAX bets all WNBA since I started documenting & some ungodly figure for the year...(75% yes I believe so)...although that is not documented like the rest. Lets get this!!! brutaljoe.
Ok MAX play! Parlay PHO ML (I dont see how they lose here. IMHO this is a great matchup for PHO. Someone to neutralize Fowles, a better guard than the two white girls, a weak rebounding team in CHI that negates a weakness for PHO. I might be taking the minus 9.5 by tomorrow but right now just ML)& SOUTH ALABAMA (NCAAF) ML -101. I am counting it. I am out and forgetting my tallies but 9-4 MAX playoffs, I think 18-6 documented MAX bets all WNBA since I started documenting & some ungodly figure for the year...(75% yes I believe so)...although that is not documented like the rest. Lets get this!!! brutaljoe.
GL Wagers on your play mate. Gotta say I lean the same way. Mercury are going to be like the Lynx last season hopefully going 3-0 in this series. I really can't see Sky keeping up. Yes they have Fowles that might be able to contain BG but DT is the biggest mismatch for CVS in this series. They did play once this season at PHO before and that was when the Sky were on a B2B.
As Wagers has pointed out before, the Dream were the worst team heading into the play-offs and the Sky beat them, then they beat the Fever whose offense is just terrible but now they face the Mercury who's attack is the best in the league. I really think the Mercury take an early lead and never look back in game #1. Will post my final play before I fly out.
GL Wagers on your play mate. Gotta say I lean the same way. Mercury are going to be like the Lynx last season hopefully going 3-0 in this series. I really can't see Sky keeping up. Yes they have Fowles that might be able to contain BG but DT is the biggest mismatch for CVS in this series. They did play once this season at PHO before and that was when the Sky were on a B2B.
As Wagers has pointed out before, the Dream were the worst team heading into the play-offs and the Sky beat them, then they beat the Fever whose offense is just terrible but now they face the Mercury who's attack is the best in the league. I really think the Mercury take an early lead and never look back in game #1. Will post my final play before I fly out.
any of you guys visit the NCAAFB forum? is there anyone worth following? there are soo many peeps it's hard to gauge for me, like NBA forum. I watched a couple guys with "game of the year", "entire bankroll" etc just get waxed...I think that Oregon State/Hawaii total set at 60 is enticing, very high total for 2 teams coming off weak performances and low scoring games, the man says it'll be a score em up at some point, going to watch and hope 1H goes under and slam 2H over
any of you guys visit the NCAAFB forum? is there anyone worth following? there are soo many peeps it's hard to gauge for me, like NBA forum. I watched a couple guys with "game of the year", "entire bankroll" etc just get waxed...I think that Oregon State/Hawaii total set at 60 is enticing, very high total for 2 teams coming off weak performances and low scoring games, the man says it'll be a score em up at some point, going to watch and hope 1H goes under and slam 2H over
WAGERS Three I think are good JIMMYDAFREAK, BOOKIEPIRATE & CARTERSEC. Yeah, seems like everyone over there got killed but Da Freak. Hope you played by MAX parlay. Half way home! Best brutaljoe
WAGERS Three I think are good JIMMYDAFREAK, BOOKIEPIRATE & CARTERSEC. Yeah, seems like everyone over there got killed but Da Freak. Hope you played by MAX parlay. Half way home! Best brutaljoe
Ok I am hitting this PHO -9.5 Moderate play. I know PHO is supremely talented and I think they match up very well with CHI. I just think they are "soft". I feel that DT half court shot did something to both teams and then MIN just missed every shot. PHO was on the ropes. Which is funny to say because they won by like 30 pts. but they may be the most talented group of women ever assembled so I am hitting it PHO -9.5 Moderateplay. Still have my MAX parlay in play. Just need PHO -550 ML to win on that since I hit SOU ALABAMA ML today in NCAAF. MAX plays ... 9-4 MAX WNBA playoffs, 18-6 documented MAX bets (yes 75%) all WNBA since I started documenting & 60-24 for the year...(71.4 % yes it is true )...although that is undocumented but when I become a degenerate and bet everything I see I go way down to 255-227 (52.9%) all plays WNBA (undocumented) but trust me it is right. good luck brutaljoe
Ok I am hitting this PHO -9.5 Moderate play. I know PHO is supremely talented and I think they match up very well with CHI. I just think they are "soft". I feel that DT half court shot did something to both teams and then MIN just missed every shot. PHO was on the ropes. Which is funny to say because they won by like 30 pts. but they may be the most talented group of women ever assembled so I am hitting it PHO -9.5 Moderateplay. Still have my MAX parlay in play. Just need PHO -550 ML to win on that since I hit SOU ALABAMA ML today in NCAAF. MAX plays ... 9-4 MAX WNBA playoffs, 18-6 documented MAX bets (yes 75%) all WNBA since I started documenting & 60-24 for the year...(71.4 % yes it is true )...although that is undocumented but when I become a degenerate and bet everything I see I go way down to 255-227 (52.9%) all plays WNBA (undocumented) but trust me it is right. good luck brutaljoe
thanks Joe it's a circus over there, I'll stay here in my little slice with Oz and ax...and btw you will NEVER see me playing much less posting large favorite parlays, it's a quick trip to the poor house but I hope you hit
thanks Joe it's a circus over there, I'll stay here in my little slice with Oz and ax...and btw you will NEVER see me playing much less posting large favorite parlays, it's a quick trip to the poor house but I hope you hit
I did not know you were betting on NCAAFB, Wagerman. You are casting a wide net . I think I will not be following NFL, let alone NCAA stuff, this year. I personally do not trust anybody, apart from vyomguy but he rarely, if ever, posts nowadays. I know that I can hit ~55% on my own in sports I follow and when I hit a rough patch, I got only myself to blame, not some unknown entity from the internet (that definition does include you and Aussie; it feels like I've known you for ages). It is also not uncommon to see a dude start with a 15-2 run and then get back to 51% as the season progresses, especially in NCAA sports (e.g. sportsguy from across the street; or even d2d in his wild multi-sport bonanza).
Anyway, tough not to tail your big plays, Wagers, but I am not so gung-ho on your leans. I might decide tomorrow, or just root for the Mercs, period. In the meantime, FIBA WC is in full swing. I think Greeks have a good chance to cover tomorrow; that squad looks like a legit #3 team and they might even upset Spain in the semis. Why they are giving only 4.5 pts to the dysfunctional Serbian squad is a mystery to me. Also, unders 1H went 4-0 today and I think unders 1H tomorrow look enticing, especially in the first three games (Argentina does not really play D but they can score).
I did not know you were betting on NCAAFB, Wagerman. You are casting a wide net . I think I will not be following NFL, let alone NCAA stuff, this year. I personally do not trust anybody, apart from vyomguy but he rarely, if ever, posts nowadays. I know that I can hit ~55% on my own in sports I follow and when I hit a rough patch, I got only myself to blame, not some unknown entity from the internet (that definition does include you and Aussie; it feels like I've known you for ages). It is also not uncommon to see a dude start with a 15-2 run and then get back to 51% as the season progresses, especially in NCAA sports (e.g. sportsguy from across the street; or even d2d in his wild multi-sport bonanza).
Anyway, tough not to tail your big plays, Wagers, but I am not so gung-ho on your leans. I might decide tomorrow, or just root for the Mercs, period. In the meantime, FIBA WC is in full swing. I think Greeks have a good chance to cover tomorrow; that squad looks like a legit #3 team and they might even upset Spain in the semis. Why they are giving only 4.5 pts to the dysfunctional Serbian squad is a mystery to me. Also, unders 1H went 4-0 today and I think unders 1H tomorrow look enticing, especially in the first three games (Argentina does not really play D but they can score).
Wagers - check out Curry-Goat's NCAA-FB thread contest; he posts the standings each week and you can see who the best of the 30+ guys he has in that contest....I'm 6-2 after this week, but been lucky so far. Agree w/ISNP on JimmydaFreak....the guy is awesome and he has a lot of plays to choose if you wish to follow. CalBear is pretty good so far. Ndukechi posts his 2nd half plays which have been pretty good too. My first time in WNBA and it was great following all of you in here. Will be back next year!!
Wagers - check out Curry-Goat's NCAA-FB thread contest; he posts the standings each week and you can see who the best of the 30+ guys he has in that contest....I'm 6-2 after this week, but been lucky so far. Agree w/ISNP on JimmydaFreak....the guy is awesome and he has a lot of plays to choose if you wish to follow. CalBear is pretty good so far. Ndukechi posts his 2nd half plays which have been pretty good too. My first time in WNBA and it was great following all of you in here. Will be back next year!!
Enjoy your trip Aussie. I am gonna miss your threads.
I was a bit surprised that Sky are only +525 dogs in this series right now. But the more I think about it the more it makes sense. Fowles is probably the only player who can play Griner straight up and possibly outplay her here and there. She has the size, experience, skills and more importantly fire in her belly to do that. The only position where PHX has a clear advantage is DT vs VDS, but DT can be pretty volatile and if her shots are not falling that could spell trouble for the Mercs. A lot will of course depend on the EDD's back.
Lots of unknowns. The Sky has already cost me twice by winning the two GM3s as big dogs. Will they do the same in the finals ? I really do not want to hedge my PHX futures bet at these odds, but I am also scared of Pokey and EDD and Fowles. Hmm. Anyway, GM1 should be fun; I have a vanilla lean on PHX 1H -5.5 & over 1H, but that is really a small, square lean. I sure hope the Mercs will not be complacent in the 1H, but who knows. The Sky have nothing to lose and I think they could surprise the Mercs early on. Might also play over in GM1: opened at 157 I think, now down to 154.5; hmm. I think it is too early to expect a defensive lockdown and the pace should be probably there in GM1, after the rest and all.
Sky have little to no chance to beat Mercury.
The reason the odds seem short is because the public does not have a clue about the WNBA, and in particular just how good Mercury are playing. On a historical level as one of the great teams in any sport.
Enjoy your trip Aussie. I am gonna miss your threads.
I was a bit surprised that Sky are only +525 dogs in this series right now. But the more I think about it the more it makes sense. Fowles is probably the only player who can play Griner straight up and possibly outplay her here and there. She has the size, experience, skills and more importantly fire in her belly to do that. The only position where PHX has a clear advantage is DT vs VDS, but DT can be pretty volatile and if her shots are not falling that could spell trouble for the Mercs. A lot will of course depend on the EDD's back.
Lots of unknowns. The Sky has already cost me twice by winning the two GM3s as big dogs. Will they do the same in the finals ? I really do not want to hedge my PHX futures bet at these odds, but I am also scared of Pokey and EDD and Fowles. Hmm. Anyway, GM1 should be fun; I have a vanilla lean on PHX 1H -5.5 & over 1H, but that is really a small, square lean. I sure hope the Mercs will not be complacent in the 1H, but who knows. The Sky have nothing to lose and I think they could surprise the Mercs early on. Might also play over in GM1: opened at 157 I think, now down to 154.5; hmm. I think it is too early to expect a defensive lockdown and the pace should be probably there in GM1, after the rest and all.
Sky have little to no chance to beat Mercury.
The reason the odds seem short is because the public does not have a clue about the WNBA, and in particular just how good Mercury are playing. On a historical level as one of the great teams in any sport.
thanks iNeed..I did look at dafreak, that's a lot of plays for one weekend but some guys can do that, GL this weekend
sometimes he feels REALLY confident about certain plays (jimmy) for example yesterday's game he said he had dinner with the coach of south alabama. thats when you tail him BIG
thanks iNeed..I did look at dafreak, that's a lot of plays for one weekend but some guys can do that, GL this weekend
sometimes he feels REALLY confident about certain plays (jimmy) for example yesterday's game he said he had dinner with the coach of south alabama. thats when you tail him BIG
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