It's WNBA Playoff time so we dig deep into "the key stat battles" and size-up the playoff teams.
Based on each team play-on-the-court we can determine which teams play better or worse then their actual pt margins and give each team a value ranking.
And the most over-valued team in the playoffs is............................Indianna........................
The largest value mismatch is.....................Chicago over Indianna............
Ride the Sky ATS...............................................
The largest value mismatch has an incredible record of success in the opening round of the playoffs, last season saw Sparks and a 2-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS record as I posted here last year.
Bth Lynx and Sparks have the common denominators of past champs, with the Lynx clearly the best team and playing on a very dominate level, better than they were last year and they would be my strong favorites to win the title with LA having a much smaller chance.
Chicago is playing very well but their rather smallish FG% differential of +1.6% does not bode well for winning the title. And for the record, Indy is by far the worst team in the playoffs at -4.4%.
I was playing around with developing my own lines during last years NBA playoffs and they did fairly well, I back-dated them a few years and they finished with a winning record each year.
I thought I would use the same formula here in the WNBA playoffs for the 1st time, I have no history of success or failure but I'll give it a go. It should be fun.
Lynx -16.29
LA -9.04
Atlanta -3.19
Sky -11.85
The best bet on the board would be Chicago -6 , which fits perfectly with the largest value mismatch.
Atlanta/Wash is the closest match-up record-wise and almost dead-even according to my power ratings, I'd look to back Wash with a small play to win the series and ATS in game 1, if it loses, raise your bet and back Wash in game 2.
Best of Luck everyone........................................