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Author: [WNBA] Topic: DREAM vs LYNX WNBA FINALS!!!!!
penzfan17 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 9/27/2011 9:59:38 PM
Muggsy and I are

The only reason Minnesota will be favored is because of how badly Atlanta's start to the season was.  Atlanta had a much tougher road to the WNBA finals and will WIN the finals. 

Minnesota is Atlanta LAST YEAR.... great but with little experience.  the DREAM are back to the finals to finish what they started last year
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#2
Posted: 9/27/2011 10:01:08 PM
Nice, GL....
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#3
Posted: 9/27/2011 10:01:46 PM
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#4
Posted: 9/27/2011 10:03:31 PM
Line guess is about Minny -220 to -240 to win the series.  Thinking about hedging for a little but there is ZERO value in that line for taking Minny.  ATL 21-6 last 27 and playing that way
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#5
Posted: 9/27/2011 10:13:42 PM

Atlanta all the way!
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#6
Posted: 9/28/2011 2:41:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by penzfan17:

Muggsy and I are

The only reason Minnesota will be favored is because of how badly Atlanta's start to the season was.  Atlanta had a much tougher road to the WNBA finals and will WIN the finals. 

Minnesota is Atlanta LAST YEAR.... great but with little experience.  the DREAM are back to the finals to finish what they started last year

It definitely won't be -240. The line was just a tad higher than -200 before Game 3 last night. It should stay there. 

P.S. Erika, PLEASE don't get hurt, we need you to play the best three-four games of your life! No, NOT for Team Brazil! Come back home, ERIKA!!!!
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#7
Posted: 9/28/2011 2:55:37 AM
Minnesota was -240 TODAY to win WNBA title.  It opened at -200 but up to -240... obviously i expect it to drop a little with Atlanta's performance.

What are your thoughts muggsy?  Got Dream at 25-1 and really think they have great shot.  You hedging at all?
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#8
Posted: 9/28/2011 4:06:24 AM
No, I'm not hedging at -240. At evens after game one, maybe.
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#9
Posted: 9/28/2011 5:07:17 AM
Lynx swept 2-0 their season matchups. Let me think.
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#10
Posted: 9/28/2011 6:41:16 AM
Want -230? Friendly bet

Your $23 vs my $10, no juice
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#11
Posted: 9/28/2011 12:16:55 PM
i know you guys got atlanta to win a garbage load but come on

are you really serious that minny is only favored because of atlanta's bad start?

wow what are you smoking

by the way, i believe minnesota kicks the garbage out of atlanta. but thats just me

just trying to put something for you to think about but..


1) atlanta beat con 2-0 but con had the lead in the 4th both times. i hgihly doubt atlanta beats minnesota twice if the lynx have the 4th quarter lead by double digits and specially at home

2)  unlike indiana who had only sutton brown to defend the middle, brunson franklin and even adair are better defenders so dont think that angel can exploit the lynx frontline like she did vs indi.
also indi relied so much on douglas and tamika and the only time they won was when a 3rd player stepped up..

minnesota has 6 solid scorers.. just a thought..

3) angel as pf worked for atlanta vs indiana because smith wasnt a good rebounder to begin with, she's pretty weak and like to play outside. try asking angel to box out brunson or franklin.. dont get me wrong, i think angel is a monster, i believe shes the best scorer in the league but she will have to work doubly hard to play pf vs the lyx frontline

good luck on that +2500, i want my fellow gamblers to win but dont be too sure of atlanta. minnesota is on another level i believe.


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#12
Posted: 9/28/2011 12:26:36 PM
im not saying atlanta has no chance and i actually believe atlanta maybe the only team in the east that has a chance vs minnesota but

looking at atlantas scorers, if minnesota contains marques, then they will be hardpressed to win cause as solid as lyttle and harding are, they are not good enough scorers to support angel

look at phoenix team and match it up with atlanta


taurasi = angel, maybe slight edge to angel
penny > marquez
johnson < harding
dupree = lyttle
bonner > price

phoenix even has the better bench imo

atlanta is much smaller than phoenix and look at what the lynx did to phoenix...plus atlanta plays their starters so much like phoenix did and it will wear the dream out (hopefully not for your sake)

just giving you a view of the assessment of a guy with no futures bet here
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#13
Posted: 9/28/2011 12:34:52 PM
oh yeah if you look at the rebs per game

min is 1 at 36.5 atlanta is 2 at 36.1 so you might think im just talking garbage but

a look at the rebounds allowed will show you that atlanta is 9th in allowing 34.6 while minnesota is 2nd allowing only 30.1

desouza averages around 7.5 a game so how much will atlanta's rebound suffer offensively and defensively? i bet theyll lose alot..

anyway, im done giving my insights heheh

gl on whatever you play. i just beleive you should try hedging a bit so as not to be disappointed with the end result if every the dream get  beat by the lynx


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#14
Posted: 9/28/2011 1:10:23 PM
Comparing phoenix to atlanta is laughable. Atlanta is expoentially better as a TEAM
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#15
Posted: 9/28/2011 1:46:17 PM
What AM I smoking... Who in their right mind would bet more than 50 cents on a team featuring one of the top 2-3 scorers in the league and two of the top 5-6 fastest players in the league... not to mention one of the top 3-4 woman to woman defenders in the league, a female version of Scotty Pippen?

Sure Minnesota is big. But so is de Souza who will be back from her Latin vacation by Sunday. Whalen is a great PG, but believe you me... the greatest of PGs are happy to be in the Western Conferense just so they don't have to face Atlanta more than twice a year. Unless you make semi open shots (which Indiana did only in the first half of the elimination game), you have no chance against the Dream. None. 

Minnesota can and will make these shots, but for stretches they will miss, and get the ball stuffed down their throats, just like Indiana and Connecticut. Reeve may be the Coach of the Year, but Meadors is Coach of the Playoffs.

Maya Moore will darn up at least one game for them with either a braindead late game turnover or a zero for eight three point shooting streak. I'm going to look to bet OVER in pretty much every game here. The only way Minnesota wins is make shot after shot after shot. If I lose my 'Overs' I'm pretty sure it won't be Atlanta who gets shut down. 

The Dream in four.
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#16
Posted: 9/28/2011 2:10:29 PM
just adding my 5 cents so i want change for my quarter......the lynx are a better defensive team than the fever, they also have more speed than the fever to get back on atlanta breaks they also are a better offensive team than the fever, pound the board more.....don't see the dream having as many fast break points as they usually do
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#17
Posted: 9/28/2011 2:29:07 PM
The more you guys tell them Atl.cant win,the more it makes me want to take my winnings from Indy series and game 3 and put it on Atl.to win this series.
Dont know why Atl.doesnt have a chance to win it all,played just as well as Minny to finish the season,
Yes I think Minn.is also a good team,but Atl.sec.year in a row in the finals gives them a good chance to win.
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#18
Posted: 9/28/2011 7:21:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:

What AM I smoking... Who in their right mind would bet more than 50 cents on a team featuring one of the top 2-3 scorers in the league and two of the top 5-6 fastest players in the league... not to mention one of the top 3-4 woman to woman defenders in the league, a female version of Scotty Pippen?

Sure Minnesota is big. But so is de Souza who will be back from her Latin vacation by Sunday. Whalen is a great PG, but believe you me... the greatest of PGs are happy to be in the Western Conferense just so they don't have to face Atlanta more than twice a year. Unless you make semi open shots (which Indiana did only in the first half of the elimination game), you have no chance against the Dream. None. 

Minnesota can and will make these shots, but for stretches they will miss, and get the ball stuffed down their throats, just like Indiana and Connecticut. Reeve may be the Coach of the Year, but Meadors is Coach of the Playoffs.

Maya Moore will darn up at least one game for them with either a braindead late game turnover or a zero for eight three point shooting streak. I'm going to look to bet OVER in pretty much every game here. The only way Minnesota wins is make shot after shot after shot. If I lose my 'Overs' I'm pretty sure it won't be Atlanta who gets shut down. 

The Dream in four.
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#19
Posted: 9/28/2011 7:30:58 PM
I keep thinking about it and continue to think more and more how Atlanta has a 50% chance of winning this series.  It's not by chance they won 8 of last 9.  Only reason Minny is SUCH a big favorite is because of Dream's start...  Books have refused to address the ability of the Dream in round 1.... round 2.... and now again in the finals.

Start of playoffs CT and Indy were both below +500 and ATL was +1500. It's evident the books just aren't caring about giving a ton of value with ATL
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#20
Posted: 9/28/2011 11:01:52 PM

Sorry guys but I will have to disagree with you. I know your in a celabrating mood with the Dream making the finals, congrats on that but..............................................................

I had Minny no.1 in my power ratings back when they were just 7-4 with only the 3rd best record and they remained no.1 all season.

In fact I have them in the top 10 in WNBA history, this team is a monster and will dominate the finals.

In the key stat Field Goal percentage differential they lead the league by a huge amount, 4.8 to 2cd place Phoenix 2.1 with Atlanta at 1.5.

And they have elavated that in the playoffs to 5.8 and they  evavated their rebounding as well by out-rebounded their opponents by a whopping 10.2 boards in the postseason.

Atlanta will be no match for this dominate Lynx team, they could get 1 game tops but really I see a sweep similar to Seattle's sweep last season, which I did call as well as my best bet play of Seattle to win the title before the playoffs started.

Don't mean to rain on your parade guys but I'm afraid the Dream is over.................................................................................  

Enjoy the series.........................

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#21
Posted: 9/28/2011 11:07:18 PM
i guess we will just see by the end of the series :)
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#22
Posted: 9/28/2011 11:34:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

In the key stat Field Goal percentage differential they lead the league by a huge amount, 4.8 to 2cd place Phoenix 2.1 with Atlanta at 1.5.

And they have elavated that in the playoffs to 5.8 and they  evavated their rebounding as well by out-rebounded their opponents by a whopping 10.2 boards in the postseason.

Do your stats reflect the fact Minnesota gets to play Tulsa and Phoenix, the worst rebounding teams in the league,a combined nine times?

Do your stats reflect the fact Minnesota played a full season with close to zero injuries, and Atlanta as it is now would beat Atlanta version 'first ten games of the season' by an average of 7-8 points?

Do your stats reflect the fact Minnesota should have been out of the playoffs already, swept by San Antonio in the first round?

Do your stats reflect how awesome Angel McCoughtry is?

http://www.wnba.com/video/wnba/2011/09/28/20110927atlMcCoughtryAlinkdeskto-1852410/

I didn't think so!

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#23
Posted: 9/29/2011 12:27:29 PM
i hope you lose just because you are so friggin arrogant :)
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#24
Posted: 9/29/2011 2:18:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ristras:

i hope you lose just because you are so friggin arrogant :)

I do my best.

Winning +1000 and +2000 wagers isn't exactly automatic. Takes an arrogant darn to even attempt it.

You might wanna check THIS out

http://fourbooks.wordpress.com/2011/09/28/ive-just-won-a-4500-tennis-wager/

Please no playa hating in this thread!
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#25
Posted: 9/29/2011 2:43:48 PM
I've criticized muggsy too but he is the only reason im holding the dream at +2500. Series line is minny -330. That's an absolute INSULT to atlanta
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