When was the last time there was only one line above -300 on a 12 fight card.....love the value this card offers. First time posting plays but been on here for years and occasionally chime in from time to time. Will go over entire card briefly and post plays at end.
Ulysses Gomez(-240) vs Phil Harris
Both men enter this fight after decisive losses in what was for both their first fight in the UFC. While Gomez' was to a much tougher and a now higher profile opponent in Moraga, I still can't quite understand why he is nearly a 2 1/2 to 1 favorite over a guy with better stand up and wrestling not to mention a distinct experience advantage who will also be fighting in front of his home crowd. Gomez' stand up game is pretty much non existent and while his grappling is above average, Harris is a world class Judo guy so I again give a small advantage to Harris in that department. Harris is a big 125er who's stand up isn't great by any means but is definitely much more advanced than Gomez'. In Harris second to last fight he fought a kid who had 8 inches on him and still more than held his own standing up. Now you would think I'd be all over Harris getting +200 but the only thing stopping me from taking Harris is that once he takes people down, he does little to nothing from top position and his submission defense is terrible for someone with 31 fights under their belt. I honestly feel the only way Gomez wins this fight is by submission so if Harris is smart he'll try and keep the fight standing despite the fact that in most of his fights he is the dominant wrestler. From a betting standpoint the value in this fight it taking Gomez by Submission at +220 or taking Harris to win at +200. Harris is an extremely active fighter and has only lost by decision once in 31 fights and it was 10 years ago. If this fight goes 3 rounds, give me Harris all day and on the flip side Gomez has never knocked anyone out but seven of his nine wins are by submission so again if you like Gomez in this fight youre absolutely crazy to lay -240 when you can get him to win by sub at +220. Gomez has fought one above average opponent and he was absolutely embarrassed by Moraga, (Gomez actually opened up at -175 in that fight) while Harris isn't exactly a giant killer he has been in the cage with Aldo and is the best that England has to offer in the flyweight division.
Vaughan Lee(-200) vs Mo Tezuka
No Thanks. Not touching this one, both guys again coming off losses while Tezuka's was a bit controversial against "Bruce Leroy", Lee was manhandled by Dillishaw. No way you could ever get me to lay -200 with Lee against anyone on the bellator roster let alone the UFC roster so I will do myself a favor and forget this fight is even on the card.
When was the last time there was only one line above -300 on a 12 fight card.....love the value this card offers. First time posting plays but been on here for years and occasionally chime in from time to time. Will go over entire card briefly and post plays at end.
Ulysses Gomez(-240) vs Phil Harris
Both men enter this fight after decisive losses in what was for both their first fight in the UFC. While Gomez' was to a much tougher and a now higher profile opponent in Moraga, I still can't quite understand why he is nearly a 2 1/2 to 1 favorite over a guy with better stand up and wrestling not to mention a distinct experience advantage who will also be fighting in front of his home crowd. Gomez' stand up game is pretty much non existent and while his grappling is above average, Harris is a world class Judo guy so I again give a small advantage to Harris in that department. Harris is a big 125er who's stand up isn't great by any means but is definitely much more advanced than Gomez'. In Harris second to last fight he fought a kid who had 8 inches on him and still more than held his own standing up. Now you would think I'd be all over Harris getting +200 but the only thing stopping me from taking Harris is that once he takes people down, he does little to nothing from top position and his submission defense is terrible for someone with 31 fights under their belt. I honestly feel the only way Gomez wins this fight is by submission so if Harris is smart he'll try and keep the fight standing despite the fact that in most of his fights he is the dominant wrestler. From a betting standpoint the value in this fight it taking Gomez by Submission at +220 or taking Harris to win at +200. Harris is an extremely active fighter and has only lost by decision once in 31 fights and it was 10 years ago. If this fight goes 3 rounds, give me Harris all day and on the flip side Gomez has never knocked anyone out but seven of his nine wins are by submission so again if you like Gomez in this fight youre absolutely crazy to lay -240 when you can get him to win by sub at +220. Gomez has fought one above average opponent and he was absolutely embarrassed by Moraga, (Gomez actually opened up at -175 in that fight) while Harris isn't exactly a giant killer he has been in the cage with Aldo and is the best that England has to offer in the flyweight division.
Vaughan Lee(-200) vs Mo Tezuka
No Thanks. Not touching this one, both guys again coming off losses while Tezuka's was a bit controversial against "Bruce Leroy", Lee was manhandled by Dillishaw. No way you could ever get me to lay -200 with Lee against anyone on the bellator roster let alone the UFC roster so I will do myself a favor and forget this fight is even on the card.
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