DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
The sharps had some very interesting challenges this week
when confronted with the NFL pointspreads. Oddsmakers had jacked the lines WAY
up in many of the games to discourage public action. The "squares"
have been making big money the past few weeks by laying points against the
worst teams. This week, Vegas tried their best to make sure that wouldn't
happen.
How did the sharps handle it? Let's take a look
game-by-game...
CINCINNATI AT SAN FRANCISCO: You knew it was going to be a
wild week with the lines when this game opened at Cincinnati -9.5! How could a
losing team be laying a price that high on the road. The public was all over
Minnesota -8 at San Francisco last week, and they had that game won by the
second quarter. Vegas was hoping a line that went higher with a worse visitor
would discourage action. The sharps who bet early took the big dog, which is
why you see Cincinnati -8 in most places now. There's no way the public is
going to bet on the Niners...so that move was all sharp money. I thought some
guys might wait to see if a +10 was possible. No patience. The guys who made
the line around -6 wanted the free points.
ARIZONA AT NEW ORLEANS: There hasn't been much action here.
The line opened New Orleans -3.5 and has pretty much stayed there. I'm seeing
some 4's now. As I've mentioned in the past, if a line at -3.5 doesn't come
down right away, that pretty much tells you the sharps like the favorite. If
they liked the dog they would have taken the hook. Most guys I know are waiting
to see if the public bets the dog down to a field goal (as they're prone to do
with a line like this). There's not much difference between 3.5 and 4. There's
a huge difference between 3 and 3.5. If the sharps are going to play this game
at all (it's a pass for many), it will be a light play on the hosts if the line
doesn't move. Arizona looked awful at Seattle last weekend.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: There's been some underdog money on
the Falcons at +14. That's why you're seeing 13 of 13.5 in most places now. The
Wise Guys like that the Falcons hired an African-American coach to finish out
the season. You know the friends of Michael Vick on that team weren't very
happy that Joey Harrington kept getting so many snaps. Maybe the team will play
harder for the new coach. There's also a set of old school sharps who will bet
+14 whenever they see it. They acted early to make sure they got the full two
touchdowns.
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI: I was surprised by how much Baltimore
money I saw early. The line opened at Ravens -3, and went up to -3 -120, and
finally to -3.5. That tells you very strongly that the sharps like the
favorite. There wasn't a buy back on the dog at +3.5! I can't say I'm in love
with Baltimore myself. They've played one good game the last two months, and
nobody's getting along. You want to lay more than a field goal on the road with
that bunch? Many sharps are doing that though. If the public comes in on the
home dog early Sunday, more sharps will lay the field goal.