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Monday Sept 24 2007 NFL ( week 3 ) PICK

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Posted: #1
It is... MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL !!!
 
coming in with a little surplus into this game ...and feeling comfortable with this pick as it represents the last AFC vs NFC matchup of the week ....
Going with Covers lines ( as I did for my research on AFC vs NFC matchups ) Tennessee represents the tiebreaker as these conferences head 2-2-1 going into MNF .....
 
Tennessee  is my Underdog Trend Pick of the week ...as it beat out the other 2 finalists in Houston & Cincinnati ....
 
 
 
 
These were the stats that won out over the other 2 rivals >>>>
 
Tennessee
 
 Tennessee is 11-1 ATS last 12 as a dog !
 
Tennessee is 13-3 ATS last 16
Tennessee is 8-1 ATS last 9 games following an ATS win
Tennessee is 8-4 ATS vs NFC last 3 years
Tennessee is 7-3 ATS as Dogs vs the NFC last 3 years
 
New Orleans is 0-3 ATS as favs vs the AFC last 3 years
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS last 5 games
 
Tennesse should  prove once again the AFC conference is indeed the stronger one on MNF
 
....I will add the recent play by both teams going back 10 weeks for evidence that the Titans have been overlooked ...and the Saints are presently overrated >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
 
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Tennessee Titans

     

Regular Season 2007-2008

Sunday 09/16/07 Indianapolis L 20-22 Week 2 W 7 U 45.5
Sunday 09/09/07 @ Jacksonville W 13-10 Week 1 W 7.5 U 39.5
                                          

Regular Season 2006-2007

Sunday 12/31/06 New England L 23-40 Week 17 L -3.5 O 41
Sunday 12/24/06 @ Buffalo W 30-29 Week 16 W 5.5 O 37.5
Sunday 12/17/06 Jacksonville W 24-17 Week 15 W 3.5 O 40.5
Sunday 12/10/06 @ Houston W 26-20 x Week 14 W 1 O 42
Sunday 12/03/06 Indianapolis W 20-17 Week 13 W 7.5 U 46.5
Sunday 11/26/06 N.Y. Giants W 24-21 Week 12 W 3 O 44
Sunday 11/19/06 @ Philadelphia W 31-13 Week 11 W 13 P 44
Sunday 11/12/06 Baltimore L 26-27 Week 10 W 7 O 38.5

results: 9-1 ATS ................7-3 SU................10-0 ATS as Dogs

in that span they played ...good competition ..they were underdogs in 9 out 10 matchups ...

and beat the only NFC team they faced both SU and ATS

 
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Now, let's look at what New Orleans has done last 10 games of regular season :
 

Regular Season 2007-2008

Sunday 09/16/07 @ Tampa Bay L 14-31 Week 2 L -5 O 41.5
Thursday 09/06/07 @ Indianapolis L 10-41 Week 1 L 5.5 U 52.5
 

Regular Season 2006-2007

Sunday 12/31/06 Carolina L 21-31 Week 17 L 3 O 37.5
Sunday 12/24/06 @ N.Y. Giants W 30-7 Week 16 W 3 U 47.5
Sunday 12/17/06 Washington L 10-16 Week 15 L -10 U 47
Sunday Night 12/10/06 @ Dallas W 42-17 Week 14 W 7.5 O 47
Sunday 12/03/06 San Francisco W 34-10 Week 13 W -7 U 44.5
Sunday 11/26/06 @ Atlanta W 31-13 Week 12 W 3 U 48
Sunday 11/19/06 Cincinnati L 16-31 Week 11 L -3.5 U 51.5
Sunday 11/12/06 @ Pittsburgh L 31-38 Week 10 L 6.5 O 45.5
 
 
results : 4-6 ATS .............4-6 SU.............1-3 ATS as Favs
 
They lost to all 3 of the AFC teams they faced both SU and ATS
 
***************************************************************************
In terms of trends ....where do you see the value ...
who's undervalued and who's overvalued...?
 
 
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NFL Offense Sorted By Yards Per Game

  Team  Yards Rush Y/R Pass QB Sack 3rd% Poss. Pts.
18 Tennessee 331.5 211.5 5.10 120.0 74.31 5 50.0 33:36 16.5
22 New Orleans  318.0 102.5 3.94 215.5 65.37 3 42.4 32:26 12.0
 
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NFL Defense Sorted By Yards Per Game

  Team Yards Rush Y/R Pass QB Sack 3rd% Poss. Pts
17 Tennessee 326.5 76.5 3.82 250.0 86.57 4 41.7 26:24 16.0
28 New Orleans 391.0 125.5 4.11 265.5 137.14 0 40.9 27:34 36.0
 
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a little article by statfox >>>
 
New Orleans has been torched for 72 points in first two games and has been outscored by exactly 48 points. That might work in Buffalo; however they didn’t play in a conference championship game last season. “We’ve got to stay the course but play together,” Payton said in typical coach speak. “The big thing is that they [the players] don’t sense panic. Our job as coaches is to make them relax so they can just play.” One of the staff’s first jobs is get the ball more to Deuce McAllister, who has two less carries than Reggie Bush. This is not a good development since the Deuce is the foundation of the offense. The more and better he runs the ball, the better the Saints offense is. He sets up all the other elements of the Saints game, allowing Payton to be creative in play-calling.

What has been most noticeable is the ease of which the Saints secondary has been torched, looking more like a five alarm fire giving up 11.5 yards per pass attempt. Every member of the defensive backfield has been pathetic, yet they have received no help from the players up front. New Orleans defenders have yet to register a single sack this season. The only good news is Tennessee prefers to transport the football by way of the running game.

The Titans are top rushing team in the NFL at 211 yards per game, at 5.1 yards per carry. The unlikely duo of Chris Brown and LenDale White is leading the way with Vince Young a wonderful supporting compliment. Young continues to show improvement as a passer, thou the fact remains he probably will never be a great thrower of the pigskin. What he is showing already in his young career is an ability to be competitive and win games. That ability will carry any team a long way and help job security for a coach. Offensive coordinator Norm Chow also deserves a great deal of credit assembling game plans that work more efficiently with the talent on hand.

A large surprise for the Titans has been the play of the defense, holding opponents’ running games to 76 YPG and 3.8 yards a carry. A subtle but highly effective change has been moving defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch from the right side to the left end position, next to defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. This gives coach Jeff Fisher great flexibility to run stunts with these two players and places Vanden Bosh in more one on one situations where he can really rush the passer. Ultimately this frees up linebacker Keith Bullock to make more plays at the point of attack.

New Orleans is a four point favorite at Bookmaker.com down from opening number of 5.5. Playing the Saints as a home favorite is as uncomfortable as listening to Right Said Fred one hit, “I’m Too Sexy”, with 3-10 ATS record the last three seasons. Tennessee is perfectly fitted for a game like this with 12-3 ATS record as an underdog the last couple of seasons.

With this being a Monday night contest, the Saints have the worst record in the history in the NFL at 7-15 (7-14-1 ATS).

 
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Bet Tracker >>>>>

427 Tennessee Titans          # of bets              53 % 

        
428 New Orleans Saints          60116               47 %

 
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Posted: #9
My Monday night Football record >>>>>>
 
This Year ( regular season ) >>. 1-1 ( my only one unit bet of the season ...I'm afraid resulted in the one  loss )
 
Last year >>>   15-2 .......
 
 
Game :  Tennessee   @   New Orleans
 
Pick :  Tennessee  + 4    ( 3 units )
 
 
                  
 
 
 
*****************************************************************
 
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Posted: #10
My Underdog Trend Pick of the Week is @ 4-0 for the Regular season TY ...
and carries a nice 8-0 record since preseason ....
 
Good Luck to all in whichever way you go ......
I'm playing with casino's $ .....
Be smart ......and best of luck !
 
 
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Posted: #11
 
Captain
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Posted: #13
I was looking for this play and after checking this thread it's a sure play for me as well!!!

Congratulations RF for all this hard work!!!

GL for tonight!!!


 
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Posted: #14
Thank you RF, do  you work on u/o too??? did u see my SD team, right now they suck!!!!
 
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Posted: #15
I hope the Saints can pull out a 1-point win but my money is going on Tenn.+4
 
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Posted: #17
No disrepect Robert but you forgot the trend that states Tenn is 2-7 as a Monday night dog and New Orleans is 14-7-1 off back to back losses vs AFC opponents (7-2 as a favorite).  Good luck with your play.
 
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Prospect
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Posted: #19
Like TN in this game.  GL - and keep up the good work RF!
 
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Posted: #20
ROBERT YOU ARE ONE OF THE MOST COMPLETE AND INFORMATIVE CAPPERS ON HERE....AND THE MOST IMPORTANT....THE WIN...KEEP IT UP!
 
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Posted: #21
Roberto.....i am tied in my pigskin picks at 13-2.This game tonight will decide it,so are you just on tenn to cover but lose,or are you saying they will win straight up? Thanks for all your research. 
 
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GL Roberto...I'm with ya on TENN
 
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I'm starting to get a little worried.. It seems everyone and their mom's uncle on covers seems to be riding this Tennesse train
 
 
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Posted: #25
roberto

I concur bud.


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