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UPDATED CFL YTD 23-13-1 +41.51 UNITS
Well its back to the drawing board for another short but hopefully profitable week in the CFL. Havent been posting for NFL preseason cause (a) too many threads already and (b) plays are minimal and usually have little or no capping ability for preseason. With every passing week we learn more and more things about this league. I didnt have the chance to catch the BC game and was damn lucky to not take the side on it ; was too many points regardless. So far in this league in comparison to many NFL and CFB lines and games (also factoring in 8 teams only) it makes it fairly easy to cap. So far i have learned:
1. Regardless of whether its at home or on the road, the Calgary defensive line is completely unproductive if its not healthy. Regardless of whether its one injury or 3, without a full defensive line this team cannot stop anyones run and has an even weaker pass rush.
2. Even though significantly improving going into their bye week, Hamiltons coaching staff and offensive coordinators have a major problem. Their play calling is horrific. If Lumsden is productive on YPC avg this teams offense completely opens up. I literally watched this team throw this game away last week @ Edm in the 3rd quarter by giving Lumsden maybe 3-4 carries only, only to have him break out runs of 10-20+ yards in the early stages of the 4th. Taafe is still challenging penalties at this point? Taking procedure penalties on 3rd and short? On a kinder note its a blessing this team is 1-6 cause chances are you will probably NEVER see them as a favorite of any sort and capping them just consists of whether you shade them or not as a dog.
3. Joe Smith RB for the BC Lions is the real deal. Even against this impressive underrated Winnipeg front 4, he still managed to carry for 74 yards on only 16 carries and 1 td. BC lost this game cause of turnovers. Take out some fumbles by Smart and minimal amounts of blown coverages the score last week would be completely different. BC remains a dominant team in this league as long as they dont turn the ball over.
4. Kent Austin gets my vote for CFL coach of the year. Following up a good career as a QB with a great offensive mind, he has really turned the franchise in the right direction. Defense is always been this teams strength. BY FAR the top 2 in defenses in the league. If he can ensure Kerry Joseph remains calm and settles down in the pocket when he stays there consistently this team will remain dominant.
5. When capping the CFL injures PLAY A MAJOR PART IN THE GAME. Yes indeed they are pros. But this isnt the NFL; these are players who DID NOT MAKE the NFL or were former players. Talent runs slim in this league. Deep teams are championship calibre teams. One key injury can completely turn a heavy favorite into a live dog.
Can add a ton more but will slowly as season progresses, only 2 games on the slate this week with Montreal, Hamilton, Toronto and Winnipeg all on BYE weeks.
Friday August 17th
BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders
Calgary's injury status has now gotten the best of em. After surrendering well over 100+ yards to Montreals Payton last week they were back to their road woes as usual. Despite Montreals makeshift offensive line who has given up the most sacks in the CFL this season, Calgary had absolutely no penetration. Injury reports have yet to be released on Calgary players and i did not watch the BC game, so have no idea if players had left banged up. Give BC 2 points for the better defense and less injuries AT THIS POINT and Calgary 3 points for home field. Game seems to be a track meet waiting to happen as both teams limited to less than 30 last week.
PROJECTED LINE - CALGARY STAMPEDERS -1
PROJECTED TOTAL - 51.5
LEANS - BC ATS AND OVER THE TOTAL (PENDING INJURES AND REPORTS)
Saturday August 18th
Edmonton Eskimos @ Saskatchewan Rough Riders
I still think Danny M without his brilliant offensive coordinator would be screwed. Cant blame Jacques that much, his talent on offense has been banged up week after week. Tuckers injury the last 2 weeks has really hurt Ricky Rays ability to deliver the deep ball. Tyler Ebells injury has eliminated the change of pace backs . Was good to see AJ Gass back on the defensive unit however his appeal on his 1 game suspension is pending. Their other RB McLendon was banged up in the Hamilton game last week but managed to hobble his way thru it. Saskatchewan on the other hand look healthy and ready to go. Fred Perry is coming into his own. Kerry Joseph seems poised in the pocket making wise decision and tucking the ball in and running only when he absolutely has to. Joseph hurt his finger against a helmet last week but again was able to tape it up and finish the game, and whether or not it was serious or not , remains to be seen. Many injures will be watched in this line but i expect Sask to be favored hard at Mosaic despite covering relatively easy spreads as road faves.
PROJECTED LINE - SASKATCHEWAN -6 (-6.5) (-7)
PROJECTED TOTAL - 47.5
LEANS - NONE ATM PENDING JOSEPHS FINGER AND/OR EDMONTON INJURES AND SUSPENSION APPEAL ~ UNDER THE TOTAL
TEAMS ON BYE ~ MONTREAL/HAMILTON/WINNIPEG/TORONTO
AS ALWAYS, THOUGHTS , COMMENTS , PROJECTIONS, CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM, ADDITIONAL REPORTS OR INFORMATION IS ALWAYS DEEPLY APPRECIATED. PLAYS WILL BE ADDED AS THE LINES OPEN TOMMORROW AFTERNOON. BEST OF LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK!
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