Magic ... the System indeed captures those plus about 35 more data points that represent about 7 more constructs with predictive validity. I feel like it's an amazingly powerful tool but rather than getting too excited I want to first reveal it's strength slowly and consistently with 5 public picks a week over 500 then 1000 games. And of course having to select 5 sides a week dilutes it's potential power greatly. When I tested it over 34 seasons making only one or two picks on average per week I got over 60% success.
Magic ... the System indeed captures those plus about 35 more data points that represent about 7 more constructs with predictive validity. I feel like it's an amazingly powerful tool but rather than getting too excited I want to first reveal it's strength slowly and consistently with 5 public picks a week over 500 then 1000 games. And of course having to select 5 sides a week dilutes it's potential power greatly. When I tested it over 34 seasons making only one or two picks on average per week I got over 60% success.
Wow ... let's hope! I usually do better, however, papa, when I'm skeptical!! Lol .... but in any event, I looked at the picks of those in the top 20 of the super contest with records like 24-6 And 23-7 ... and surprisingly they have a lot of these same picks ... so I figure if I'm going up in smoke, a lot of the leaders are too this week :-)) ... afterall misery loves company!
Good Luck!
Wow ... let's hope! I usually do better, however, papa, when I'm skeptical!! Lol .... but in any event, I looked at the picks of those in the top 20 of the super contest with records like 24-6 And 23-7 ... and surprisingly they have a lot of these same picks ... so I figure if I'm going up in smoke, a lot of the leaders are too this week :-)) ... afterall misery loves company!
Good Luck!
That mid 50 percent success is actually very very good if that is what your technique produces over massive numbers of games in a pick 5 format. I estimate about the same success ... maybe 56% if I am not being extremely conservative/modest... in a pick 5 scenario. But when I cherry pick and alter it to a one pick a week or sometimes 2 or 3 picks a week set up (determined by the numbers whether I can only take one pick or maybe 3 or 4 in a given week if all are that good ... and sometimes no picks are good enough that week) there is a definite jump from that 55%+ range up to above 60% and maybe even 62%.
To answer your question . .. I think I kinda did ... but it's not always top 3 picks because some weeks there are none, usually there are 1 or really good ones, and sometimes there are 3 or more. So saying "here is the record for the top 3" would be misleading. It would really be: "here is the record for elite picks" without a specification of how many it was. Each week is so unique. Some weeks are totally barren...others are ripe with gems!!!
That mid 50 percent success is actually very very good if that is what your technique produces over massive numbers of games in a pick 5 format. I estimate about the same success ... maybe 56% if I am not being extremely conservative/modest... in a pick 5 scenario. But when I cherry pick and alter it to a one pick a week or sometimes 2 or 3 picks a week set up (determined by the numbers whether I can only take one pick or maybe 3 or 4 in a given week if all are that good ... and sometimes no picks are good enough that week) there is a definite jump from that 55%+ range up to above 60% and maybe even 62%.
To answer your question . .. I think I kinda did ... but it's not always top 3 picks because some weeks there are none, usually there are 1 or really good ones, and sometimes there are 3 or more. So saying "here is the record for the top 3" would be misleading. It would really be: "here is the record for elite picks" without a specification of how many it was. Each week is so unique. Some weeks are totally barren...others are ripe with gems!!!
When I tested it over 34 seasons making only one or two picks on average per week I got over 60% success.
When I tested it over 34 seasons making only one or two picks on average per week I got over 60% success.
Nycgags...let me answer you with an analogy. Let's say you were shown 16 random watches every week for 17 weeks (NFL season) and were allowed to pick only the 2 best watches each week all season. in a second season you were allowed to pick 5 watches each week. Now in which season would you have the most expensive average watch value? Obviously by only picking 2, you would snatch up the rolexes...and patek phillipes...if you had any sense at all and your average value per watch would be enormous. In season two, when you had to pick 5 watches, you would still get the nice watches but would also be stuck with some citizen...and Bulova lower priced watches. Your average value per watch would be much less than in season one. In the same way...percent of success picking only two teams leads to greater overall success percentage than having to pick 5 and being stuck with bulovas. Cherry picking works well when accuracy and quality is needed.
Nycgags...let me answer you with an analogy. Let's say you were shown 16 random watches every week for 17 weeks (NFL season) and were allowed to pick only the 2 best watches each week all season. in a second season you were allowed to pick 5 watches each week. Now in which season would you have the most expensive average watch value? Obviously by only picking 2, you would snatch up the rolexes...and patek phillipes...if you had any sense at all and your average value per watch would be enormous. In season two, when you had to pick 5 watches, you would still get the nice watches but would also be stuck with some citizen...and Bulova lower priced watches. Your average value per watch would be much less than in season one. In the same way...percent of success picking only two teams leads to greater overall success percentage than having to pick 5 and being stuck with bulovas. Cherry picking works well when accuracy and quality is needed.
I usually let the line adjust for injuries. However if it comes down to two or three equal last picks, i might opt for the healthier team. Good question.
I usually let the line adjust for injuries. However if it comes down to two or three equal last picks, i might opt for the healthier team. Good question.
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