NFL WEEK 1 ..............................2017
We have 2 regression methods , neither has produced a losing record week 1.
Win Improvements........................................................
We fade Raiders, Giants and Cowboys, since the Giants and Boys play each other we fade the ATS winner in week 2.
We back Bengal, Zona and Panthers.
Bengals -3 over Ravens --- 5.5 units
Zona -1.5 over Lions --- 5.5 units
Panthers -5.5 over 9ers --- 5.5 units
Titans -1.5 over Raiders --- 5.5 units
TOP 2 MISMATCHES IN 3 REGRESSION METHODS..................
Win Improvements.......,,,,,,,,,,,,,top 2 .. 21-7 (75%) 2005-2016
All teams not just top 2 ---- 6-8 game difference --- 18-9 (66.7%)
SWEET SPOT - 9 game diff or better --- 15-2 ATS (88.2%)
Top 2 .... Bengals -3 over Ravens by 8.5 --- 5.5 units
Zona -1.5 over Lions by 7.5 --- 5.5 units
teams over 6..... Panthers by 6 over 9ers, Bears by 6 over Falcons
Expected Wins.......................top 2-- 17-8 ATS (68%) 2005-2016
All teams not just top 2.....2-2.8 diff ... 11-9 ATS
SWEET SPOT ---2.9 -3.9 --- 15-3 (83.3%)
4 or better --- 1-3 ATS
top 2, Jags +5.5 over Texans by 5.4 --- 5.5 unit
Browns +9 (-115) over Steelers by 3.6 --- 5.5 units
teams in the sweet spot of 2.9-3.9 , Zona by 3.2 over Lions
Close Wins .......................top 2 --- 16-12 ATS (57.1%) 2005-2016
all teams not just top 2 --- 4-7 game diff --- 24-21
SWEET SPOT ---8 or better --- 10-3 ATS (76.9)
Top 2--- Browns +9 (-115) over Steelers by 7 --- 5.75 units
Jags +5.5 over Texans by 7 --- 5.5 units
no teams over 8
Basically you can finish with a winning record in each method by backing these teams, if a team comes up twice then you need to back them twice, Jags and Browns come up twice in the TOP 2 MISMATCH METHOD so we need to back them twice .
TEAMS IN THE SWEET SPOT are Browns and Zona both between 2.9-3.9 in expected wins. The other 2 methods did not have a team in the sweet spot.
Little to no downside risk backing these 2 teams, at least a 1-1 record should be had with a great chance to go 2-0.
I'll be back with my Westgate Super Contest picks and Super Bowl winners- The year Before ............untill then best of luck ..........