|I've built and NFL model that predicts overs/unders pretty well (60% correct over last 5 years).
Posted: 2/15/2017 3:38:32 PM
I was wondering if anyone has ever had their model validated to remove doubt that the model-builder is somehow manipulating the results in their favor.
For instance, the independent reviewer (IR) with perfect credibility has a laptop I've never seen before with a raw dataset of NFL data in Excel format. I sit at the laptop for 6 hours with no internet connection, no external hard drives and under the watchful eye of the IR, build the model and then I run a season (say, the full 2016 season), game by game where the IR provides the O/U line and the model spits out whether to bet the O or U and we see how accurate it is. I know the answer, because I've back-tested it, but I didn't know if this had ever been done as an independent validation of a model. Sort of an Iron Chef for NFL prediction models.