Atlanta lost the SB on 3rd and 23 at the +35 with 3:50 left in game.

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Atlanta lost the SB on 3rd and 23 at the +35 with 3:50 left in game.
Mikenifacent PM Mikenifacent
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Posted: 2/6/2017 7:29:39 AM
do yall really believe these experienced nfl coaches are calling a play that ridiculous with the SB on the line? Cmon Mane! That game was fixed!!   3rd and 1 already in field goal range to go up by 11 points with 3 mins left? The FIX was in!!!   Fix was probably in when the Pats beat Seattle!!
theclaw PM theclaw
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Posted: 2/6/2017 7:33:22 AM
The Pats last 2  SB wins came from bone-headed dumb plays by the opp.

Pete got schooled calling a pick-play from the 1 yd line, the Pats d sees that play all the time in practice since one of favorite Pats plays.

3 runs by Falcons even if for no gain set up a 40 yard FG, that is a very high probability FG in todays NFL.

But it's not 100%.

There is a small chance he could miss it, has happen before like last year playoff when Vikings kicker missed a much shorter FG

Remember Gary Anderson missed a 39 yder for 98 vikes after not missing any kick in regular season, FG or Xpt which would of put Vikes up 10 with little time left.

It does happen and those things weigh on coaches minds but running the ball could also produce yards as well and is much less risky to lose alot of yds.

Jimmy Johnon said coaching Boys in early 90's, big plays get fans excited but it's the team makes the fewest dumb plays that wins more games.

By-golly maybe he's on to something.
Toothfairy1 PM Toothfairy1
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Posted: 2/6/2017 8:11:21 AM
Julio won them the super bowl with that catch, and Falcons pissed it away!
If I'm the 49rs I would take back my offer to Kyle Shanahan!!
Posted using a mobile device.
Trinitiyy PM Trinitiyy
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Posted: 2/6/2017 9:32:08 AM
Kyle Shanahan is a retard no doubts about it, all he had to do was run and milk the friggin clock in the 4th, why throw the friggin ball?? Matt Ryan is also a friggin retard for fumbling the ball witch was the one thing you did not want to do at your own 25. Atlanta as a team fell apart when it mattered most and it was sad to see. 

Sorry to Julio Jones , man what a friggin catch to win the game for your team but it was all for nothing....

 Julio Jones 
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 2/6/2017 10:19:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chewbacca:

Yep! Amazing that Nfl coaches can be so clueless. After the Jones catch at the 20, they could have ran it three times and kicked. But they take a huge sack and then the hold...it is unreal!



EASILY ONE OF THE BIGGEST COACHING BRAIN FARTS IN NFL HISTORY
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/6/2017 10:57:45 AM
Good article.

This only describes the plays really.

It doesnt describe how ATL only ran the ball 4 times in the final part of the game from the time they were up 28-12.

Or how they were inexplicably snapping the ball way before the playclock ran down (as high as 20 secs).

But a good read....

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/the-16-plays-that-needed-to-go-the-patriots-way-in-their-comeback-and-all-of-them-did-072920750.html
Biscuiteater1 PM Biscuiteater1
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Posted: 2/6/2017 11:10:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

I mean what are they trying to do there?

Even on 2nd and 10 at the 23 with 4:30 left.

Why are they throwing it?
here is where i thought they blew it, run twice kick it, even if Pats run ensuing kick off back Falcons could run it 3 more times and if they get a 1st down ball game and even if they dont Pats would have the ball back with no time outs and scant seconds left.
lbcake PM lbcake
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Posted: 2/6/2017 11:15:13 AM
Coaches should have advisors next to them always asking them - 'Are you sure that's the right call'  'You might want to rethink that' 

My staff would include 3. Head, defence and offence .

We should not be surprised. NFL coaches determine the outcome more than any other sport. 
peter121909 PM peter121909
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Posted: 2/6/2017 11:23:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:


Yes, just saw the missed FM call.

If they make that call - ATL wins the SB.

Incredible.


They face masked each other if you actually watched it lol....patriots d mans helmet comes flying off because of it...
Ali_ PM Ali_
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Posted: 2/6/2017 12:08:46 PM
Great catch by Julio 
I did have a prop bet on him to get a touchdown which wasn't a wise bet
vegasslim PM vegasslim
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Posted: 2/6/2017 12:17:59 PM
FOUR running plays by the falcons after they took a 28-3 lead BRILLIANT JOB shanny!! YOU lost the superbowl
wallstreetcappers PM wallstreetcappers
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Posted: 2/6/2017 1:23:50 PM
I dont know if I agree with the run 3 times comments.

We see so many times that teams try and milk a lead by going away from what they did to build the lead and we will criticize them for doing that...so either way its a no-win from a fan perspective.

One thing that came to my mind...in the 3rd quarter I was checking out the game stats on NFL.com and I was shocked at how lopsided the stats were, the Pats were dominating in every category but the score, they had nearly double the yards, much more TOP and outside two turnovers if someone were to look at the numbers and guess the score without seeing the score you would think that the Pats were up 24-14 given the stats.

I think what happened is the defense just started sucking wind in the second half and could not stop the Pats and their passing game.

Even if the Falcons kick the FG, given how awful the defense was and the Pats had timeouts, there still was a good chance they could have caught another score as the Pats really were NOT running a HUPO at all, in fact I was a bit shocked in the 4th how methodical and slow they were running the offense. 


Playtowin01 PM Playtowin01
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Posted: 2/6/2017 1:53:43 PM
They should played like the game winning field goal and with 30 seconds to go ! ..... of course you going to run ! ..... two years ago seahawks make dumb plays too at the end........ they are not that dumb to make these plays like or maybe they don't want to get the field goal. also Atl threw on 3rd and 1 to go and fumbled lol ..... at least I had 1st half atl 
firesox PM firesox
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Posted: 2/6/2017 2:21:58 PM
QUOTE
Originally Posted by Cavs2017Champs:

Atlanta lost the SB before it even started cuz it was scripted for them to lose... Before the game even started, Brady was all happy but Ryan looked "nervous"... Brady knew NE was winning and Ryan knew Atlanta was going to lose.. You dont just blow a 25 point lead just like that, just like the Warriors blowing a 3 - 1 lead yet dominating the first 3 out of 4 games.. 


searchwarrant PM searchwarrant
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Posted: 2/6/2017 8:53:16 PM
good thread.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/6/2017 9:38:52 PM
Really good article on the subject....

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/blackjack-superstar-explains-odds-historic-patriots-win/
anaheimRX PM anaheimRX
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Posted: 2/7/2017 4:41:03 AM
Why would the Falcons make every single wrong move they could, willingly? 

If the obvious right move was to run the play clock down, why didn't they?

If the obvious right move was to run 3x and kick a fg, why didn't they?

"Oh, they're just dumb, yeah." 

The Falcons were like "hmm, you know what, lets just do everything we can to help the Pats get an edge, because that's how dumb we are. We're winning too big, lets make it fun, guys. Let's do the EXACT opposite of what we should do, in terms of probability of winning." 

You guys keep commenting on the improbability of all these events occurring to produce the final outcome. Wouldn't you then have to give serious consideration to the possibility that these events weren't random?
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/7/2017 10:19:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by anaheimRX:

Why would the Falcons make every single wrong move they could, willingly? 

If the obvious right move was to run the play clock down, why didn't they?

If the obvious right move was to run 3x and kick a fg, why didn't they?

"Oh, they're just dumb, yeah." 

The Falcons were like "hmm, you know what, lets just do everything we can to help the Pats get an edge, because that's how dumb we are. We're winning too big, lets make it fun, guys. Let's do the EXACT opposite of what we should do, in terms of probability of winning." 

You guys keep commenting on the improbability of all these events occurring to produce the final outcome. Wouldn't you then have to give serious consideration to the possibility that these events weren't random?

It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

You are looking for patterns in randomness.

There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.

JohnKreese PM JohnKreese
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Posted: 2/7/2017 12:23:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:


It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

You are looking for patterns in randomness.

There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.


I don’t have all of the details that you are asking for here but the solution is pretty simple.  Do you want to remove the emotion and pressure from the decisions that need to be made?  Well then you need to take these decisions out of the hands of human beings and allow computers to make them.   We see this more and more in financial markets these days.  “Gut” traders, by and large, have been replaced with algorithms that stick to a process no matter what.  Obviously we can’t eliminate the human element from coaching entirely, but I think the solution is pretty simple- hire a team of software developers to create an application that will run simulations using actual historical game data and use this data to inform what the best possible decision is at any given time with probabilities based on past outcomes.

Put this on the tablets that all the coaches carry around and voila; you’ve got all the answers to the test right in front of you.   If there was a red flashing light screaming at Shanahan to tell Ryan to let the play clock run down or telling him that the benefit of running the ball and burning clock increases their win probability by X percent, maybe he would have listened…

Skipster PM Skipster
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Posted: 2/7/2017 1:47:08 PM
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwellx170206/anatomy-miracle-how-patriots-came-back-dead-super-bowl-li

I don't know if you saw this, Van, but it's the clearest article I've read on the subject.
Skipster PM Skipster
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Posted: 2/7/2017 1:48:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:


It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

You are looking for patterns in randomness.

There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.



crickets.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/7/2017 2:51:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Skipster:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwellx170206/anatomy-miracle-how-patriots-came-back-dead-super-bowl-li

I don't know if you saw this, Van, but it's the clearest article I've read on the subject.

Great article.  Thanks for sharing Skipster.

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/7/2017 3:02:36 PM
From the article Skipster shared....

After the 39-yard checkdown to a wide-open Freeman gave Atlanta first-and-10 at their own 49-yard line with 5:39 to go, Ryan snapped the ball with 20 seconds left on the play clock and handed the ball off for a loss of 1. The next play, the 27-yard deep out to Jones, was snapped with 13 seconds left on the clock.

This is just unforgivable.  It is something that cannot be argued.  AND IT HAPPENS IN ALMOST EVERY NFL GAME.

I am happy that all of this happened in such a high profile game so that it can be examined so closely by so many people - but to be honest - this stuff happens in Week 7 Colts vs Browns and nobody cares.  But it does happen.  All the time.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/7/2017 3:06:16 PM
This also....

And BTW - this isnt just for this particular game.  I have started threads on this here - and been ranting about it forever - TOs should be used for stopping the clock only (and challenges).  You dont use it to avoid a 5 yard penalty in the third qtr.

Quinn also didn't get much value for his timeouts. Atlanta had to use one timeout early in the third quarter when they were struggling to line up on defense before a third-and-long. A second timeout came after the first Matthews holding penalty toward the end of the third quarter on second-and-11, while the final timeout flew off the shelves when Quinn challenged the ridiculous Edelman catch. If Ryan hits that final drive with a minute and two timeouts, the playcalling would have been fundamentally different.
Skipster PM Skipster
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Posted: 2/7/2017 3:07:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

From the article Skipster shared....

After the 39-yard checkdown to a wide-open Freeman gave Atlanta first-and-10 at their own 49-yard line with 5:39 to go, Ryan snapped the ball with 20 seconds left on the play clock and handed the ball off for a loss of 1. The next play, the 27-yard deep out to Jones, was snapped with 13 seconds left on the clock.

This is just unforgivable.  It is something that cannot be argued.  AND IT HAPPENS IN ALMOST EVERY NFL GAME.

I am happy that all of this happened in such a high profile game so that it can be examined so closely by so many people - but to be honest - this stuff happens in Week 7 Colts vs Browns and nobody cares.  But it does happen.  All the time.


they did the same thing in the Seattle game but they got away with it. if you look at the last 5 minutes of the game, the similarities are crazy. up 16, Ryan is sacked, fumbles at his own 25. In this case, he recovered his own fumble. so they got very lucky there. still, after intercepting the Seahawks at their own 9 next possession, they continued to pass the ball, still hiked the ball with time on the clock, and guys were running out of bounds to stop the clock. no one noticed because they won. but it was exactly the same scenario. if you can find it, it's instructive to watch the 4th Q of that game. terrible coaching. they learned nothing from the experience and it cost them the SB.
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