72% NFL playoffs sides/totals, SB picks

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: 72% NFL playoffs sides/totals, SB picks
Contrarian21 PM Contrarian21
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Posted: 1/24/2017 4:56:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan:


When was the last time they played? When did they last face each other in the superbowl or with Quinn as head coach? 

Exactly. History is boring, the Patriots won in Denver this season, right? NC State just won at Duke last night? History is a comedy of historians who keep thinking the past matters when the present isn't even anything close to a replication of it!


Thank you. At least someone gets it. All past stats mean NOTHING. I repeat NOTHING. It's about the Falcons speed vs the Pats lack of speed. They won't be able to stop them. The Falcons will get to Brady, which is the way to beat them. The Pats are only favored because of past success. They are not the better team. Not sure how many times I need to state this.
walbanger PM walbanger
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Posted: 1/24/2017 5:24:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Contrarian21:


Thank you. At least someone gets it. All past stats mean NOTHING. I repeat NOTHING. It's about the Falcons speed vs the Pats lack of speed. They won't be able to stop them. The Falcons will get to Brady, which is the way to beat them. The Pats are only favored because of past success. They are not the better team. Not sure how many times I need to state this.

Patriots have the better offensive line. They have ALLOWED only 24 sacks all season compared to 37 for Atlanta. Brady has been protected much better than Ryan has. Both the Pats and Falcons had the same amount of sacks. I hope the Falcons blitz all night so Brady can carve them up like a Thanksgiving turkey. They can pressure Brady all they want. Brady get's rid of the ball faster than anyone in the league and is the master at reading defenses. I will take the best QB and Coach of ALL-TIME over these Falcons.


Don't feel bad when I win and you lose.......just learn from your mistakes. You are going down sweetheart!!!!!!!!!
Nycgags PM Nycgags
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Posted: 1/24/2017 5:45:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan:


When was the last time they played? When did they last face each other in the superbowl or with Quinn as head coach?

Quinn went 8-8 last season, this is his 2nd year in the NFL, the first with a winning record.

Belichick has been head coach of the Patriots since year 2000.

Quinn lost 5 games this season, the last time Belichick lost 5 or more games was 7 years ago.

If you really think Quinn is the key to success in this game you are in for a world of hurt.

There are two reasons why everyone is on the Patriots. 
  1. Brady
  2. Belichick

Nycgags PM Nycgags
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Posted: 1/24/2017 5:47:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by walbanger:


Patriots have the better offensive line. They have ALLOWED only 24 sacks all season compared to 37 for Atlanta. Brady has been protected much better than Ryan has. Both the Pats and Falcons had the same amount of sacks. I hope the Falcons blitz all night so Brady can carve them up like a Thanksgiving turkey. They can pressure Brady all they want. Brady get's rid of the ball faster than anyone in the league and is the master at reading defenses. I will take the best QB and Coach of ALL-TIME over these Falcons.


Don't feel bad when I win and you lose.......just learn from your mistakes. You are going down sweetheart!!!!!!!!!

ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 1/24/2017 5:50:12 PM
I'm so sick of hearing "best QB and coach of all time." You just prove contrarian's point by alluding to the past "of all time."  So with your logic you must have always bet on New England? Look at how both teams have played vs common opponents. For starters, Atlanta dominated Seattle and Seattle beat New England at New England. Squares don't care. There are indeed good reasons for betting big on New England. But that doesn't change that Vegas made a low line fkr a reason. New England is public bait
Nycgags PM Nycgags
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Posted: 1/24/2017 6:00:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan:

I'm so sick of hearing "best QB and coach of all time." You just prove contrarian's point by alluding to the past "of all time."  So with your logic you must have always bet on New England? Look at how both teams have played vs common opponents. For starters, Atlanta dominated Seattle and Seattle beat New England at New England. Squares don't care. There are indeed good reasons for betting big on New England. But that doesn't change that Vegas made a low line fkr a reason. New England is public bait

Here's a little more proof that when Atlanta faces a strong defense they score below their season average:

Falcons averaged 34 points per game on offense

the 5 games where they scored less than 30 points?
w/ each opponent's respective "points allowed" ranked during regular season:

12. Eagles, ATL scored 15
4. Broncos, ATL scored 23
3. Seahawks, ATL scored 24
15. Buccaneers, ATL scored 24
7. Chiefs, ATL scored 28

Patriots are #1 in "points allowed"

There's a good chance Patriots can hold Atlanta to 24 or fewer points, using SEA and DEN as prime examples.

Now we just need to do a similar exercise to see how efficient the Patriots are against bottom tier "points allowed" defenses to get a reasonable prediction for their score.

Patriots also had 5 games to look at against bottom tier defenses (12 teams that allowed the most points in the league), ATL for reference is 6th worst or right in the middle.

Here's how they did, listed in similar fashion to the above with rankings being for WORST instead of BEST (i.e. 1 = worst in points allowed).

5. Jets, NEP scored 41
3. Browns, NEP scored 33
1. 49er's, NEP scored 30
10. Rams, NEP scored 26
5. Jets, NEP scored 22

Using the median of the scores above so as to not skew the predicted score result we get a score of 30.

Seems perfectly reasonable that New England could put up 30 points against Atlanta consider 6 teams managed to this past season with 3 other teams scoring at least 28 points, so more than half of Atlanta's games they had given up at least 28 points.  Patriots are certainly in the top half the league to be facing them in the Super Bowl.

Patriots 30
Falcons 24
ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 1/24/2017 6:40:59 PM
Ok the Eagles game was away, the Pats only managed 16 against Denver, likewise 24 against Seattle and that was at home while Atlanta played them in Seattle. Tampa Bay was likewise on the road. Chiefs have a solid bend but don't break defense and the Falcons only became hot after that week. It's also useless to look at overall defense stats for Atlanta because their defense improved a lot late in the season. I don't get your point in showing how the Pats beat up on some horrible teams. Btw they only covered once vs the Jets and barely covered vs Browns after Kessler got injurd during the game.


ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 1/24/2017 6:45:08 PM
Btw I love how you mention Seattle regular season but not the playoffs. Yes Atlanta was at home but look at how they did on the road in New Orleans. The point is that they love the dome
ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 1/24/2017 7:04:06 PM
The Pats didn't also have to face any really offensively prolific teams. But Atlanta played in Oakland and New Orleans twice. Some common opponents New England allowed more points to, for instance they gave up 17 against San Fran, Atlanta gave up only 13. they gave up 31 to Seattle Atlanta gave up 20 to them.
Nycgags PM Nycgags
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Posted: 1/24/2017 7:26:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan:

 I don't get your point in showing how the Pats beat up on some horrible teams. 

MY POINT is Atlanta's defense is a HORRIBLE TEAM.

Lipstick on a PIG, just watch and see.
Nycgags PM Nycgags
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Posted: 1/24/2017 7:30:37 PM
Just put 300 on Pats TT over 31.

Westgate has ATL TT at 28, I'd say if anyone is even thinking of betting ATL in the SuperBowl they would be better served to just bet their 28 over.

4 out their 5 losses they scored 28 or less

Their 5th loss?  Only scored 30 points.

Only once all season did they win a game by scoring less than 28 points and that was when they scored 23 against Denver who scored 16.

TRUST me, Atlanta's defense is not going to win this game for them, their only chance in hell is to run the score up like they did against GB and keep NEP's offense off the field.
ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 1/24/2017 7:37:26 PM
Atlanta's defense was significantly improved in the second half of the season. Prime example they beat NO in a shootout early in the season and allowed only 13 points to them after 3 quarters of blowing them out
Pentuppete PM Pentuppete
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Posted: 1/24/2017 9:28:59 PM
NYC. Gags you are all over it! Don't waste your time or even a breath on these contrarian fools. It's a plea for attention that wasn't given in his messy childhood. 18-7 with all opposite plays is Bull garbage. Claims to be a Pats fan and yet is unable to break down a game and make an informed conclusion. Cuz he don't know garbage. It's not even slightly interesting to consider he might understand what playing as a contrarian would mean cuz he don't know garbage. Enjoy the humiliation. Fraud.
Sportsfixx PM Sportsfixx
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Posted: 1/24/2017 10:53:01 PM
Crazy love on Pats I want to run the other line will likely move to 3.5 to 4 ... 2 weeks for BB to prepare Pats 15-3 Ats this season against some lofty spreads still looking and researching. GL all whatever you decide ... would love to hear the 131 connection does this relate to Kevin Bacon ?
Posted using a mobile device.
Contrarian21 PM Contrarian21
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Posted: 1/25/2017 9:28:53 AM
sorry if you were misled by any of the above posts, but the Pats D is far from a "strong defense." That is laughable.
Contrarian21 PM Contrarian21
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Posted: 1/25/2017 9:49:48 AM
name one offense the Pats have played this year that resembles the Falcons. The only one that is close is maybe the Seahawks at home, where they lost, but Falcons are much faster and explosive than Seattle. Not even close.

Pats fans and Pats backers are petrified. You can tell by their defensive posts. I'm not a Falcons fan. Just calling it like I see it.


plays4all PM plays4all
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Posted: 1/25/2017 9:55:28 AM

The 131 is a simple gematria connection. In gematria, certain words equal 131.

Championship= 131

Now supposedly in the past 10 years, every team that won a SB acquired a player that equals 131 in gematria. So because patriots acquired one this year, slops think he has found a lock. He doesn't understand that the pattern is due to change and is only there to trick people like him who look for these codes.

This year, the Falcons are my pick

Contrarian21 PM Contrarian21
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Posted: 1/25/2017 10:15:40 AM
get this 131 crap off my thread.
plays4all PM plays4all
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Posted: 1/25/2017 10:20:33 AM

But it's true. How could you be blind to it? Put the words in the gematria calculator and you will see the links.

If you say it's coincidence then your brain must be fried already

Contrarian21 PM Contrarian21
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Posted: 1/25/2017 2:08:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by plays4all:

But it's true. How could you be blind to it? Put the words in the gematria calculator and you will see the links.

If you say it's coincidence then your brain must be fried already


I sincerely hope this is sarcasm.
Hogwildchild PM Hogwildchild
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Posted: 1/25/2017 3:45:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan:

Atlanta's defense was significantly improved in the second half of the season. Prime example they beat NO in a shootout early in the season and allowed only 13 points to them after 3 quarters of blowing them out
They also allowed NO to back door cover that game...screw Atlanta!
games1 PM games1
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Posted: 1/25/2017 3:59:32 PM
Agree but does Trump influence the outcome for his boys(Pats) or do they tank and let Atl backers cash?
TKWSNx93 PM TKWSNx93
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Posted: 1/25/2017 5:35:57 PM
The team that has fewer Road wins than the opponent is 12-1 ATS in the Superbowl. The only loss was the Raiders in 03 (I would put an asterisk as Gruden knew the entire Raider playbook).

Take ATL +3 
Contrarian21 PM Contrarian21
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Posted: 1/25/2017 6:18:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TKWSNx93:

The team that has fewer Road wins than the opponent is 12-1 ATS in the Superbowl. The only loss was the Raiders in 03 (I would put an asterisk as Gruden knew the entire Raider playbook).

Take ATL +3 

walbanger PM walbanger
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Posted: 1/25/2017 6:25:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Contrarian21:

name one offense the Pats have played this year that resembles the Falcons. The only one that is close is maybe the Seahawks at home, where they lost, but Falcons are much faster and explosive than Seattle. Not even close.

Pats fans and Pats backers are petrified. You can tell by their defensive posts. I'm not a Falcons fan. Just calling it like I see it.



Not petrified, just using common sense. The Patriots are the more well rounded team
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