Last week bit of a mixed bag, hit the big play as my 'best bet' on the Falcons cashed easy but lost the other 3, all lost late in the game. Houston looked to be covering their big +number easy but Brock did his best Brian Hoyer impression late in the game throwing bad picks in desperation.
The other two games really were ref hatchet jobs and I rarely complain about refs but in the Dallas game, they were making a comeback in the 1st half and got a penalty for a guy going in the huddle and then not participating. I don't think I have ever seen that called in 20+ years of watching the NFL. They outplayed GB after that but it was just too little too late, the bad start killed them.
And in the KC game, honestly it probably WAS a hold on that 2 pt conversion, but you don't usually see a ref sending a home team packing on a holding call. So many holds are not called during a game so to call one there is a joke.
Anyway, on to this week:
Best bet: Atlanta -4.
This number was still available yesterday at a local bookie, sometimes the Irish books don't update or just have different numbers so I'm happy enough. It's now 5.5 despite a nearly 3-1 disparity in tickets. Most likely it's because all the PUBLIC small money tickets are on GB and the big bets are on ATL. I'm surprised it's at that number with the way the public ride AR's sack so hard. But that's because this Atlanta team will SHRED that GB defense.
They couldn't stop Dallas after halftime at all, but the headstart and a crazy catch at the end are what gave GB the victory. The bye week hurt Dallas as they started slow, maybe some rookie jitters. But mostly the thing that hurt them is not having the lead. The way their offense works they are way better playing from ahead. The grinding runs of Zeke are taken out of the game somewhat if they are behind. Now, Dallas can pass the ball too but they don't have a truly dynamic passing offense, it was an effective passing offense set up by the run and short yardage situations.
When watching the Atlanta offense vs Seattle, what stuck out to me was the way they're offense gets the playmakers the ball in space and they get great YAC. That's when it hit me - in watching Dallas (watched them a lot this year) I couldn't remember many plays were they had YAC. Sure they converted plenty of 3rd downs and scored plenty of TDs, but mostly it was either Cole Beasly running across the field or to the sideline and just getting to the sticks, or Dez using his big frame and position to come down with a TD. In my memory, they always seemed to be tackled or out of bounds shortly after the catch.
So I looked it up and sure enough, Atlanta is 2nd in the league in Yards After Catch, Dallas is 21st.
It's funny how people aren't giving Atlanta credit for the fact that they fell behind early to what everybody claims is a very tough defense (though I said last week in my writeup was super overrated) and absolutely torched them in a blowout win. It's like no one remembers that Matt Ryan led a 99 yard drive at the end of the half. I mean this offense is like the greatest show on turf was, it's unstoppable, and a totally different animal to Dallas. They have agile pass catching backs and a home run hitter in Julio.
Not only that, but they haven't had to travel at all and their track meet style is a huge advantage in a dome.That vulnerable GB secondary isn't going to have more success now facing a surgical vet with a beast like Julio compared to what they did vs a rookie (who is a good QB but not on Matty Ice's level) and Dez who is basically a possession WR at this point and Cole Beasley and Witten. They're just better, and have been the number one team in yards per play for a reason.
Dan Quinn is also 3-0 vs Rodgers in his career. Eventually, just like with Seattle, Wilson ran out of Houdini plays, Rodgers will run out of hail marys, and when Atlanta puts up a number in either the high 30s or 40s on them, you can't rely on lucky bombs to keep up.
I was actually pretty impressed with how the Atl defense handled Wilson and Co after the first drive. GB has less of a run game, and their WR group isn't really better than Seattle's, their defense definitely isn't. But the public loves Rodgers. That's fine, keep loving him. He is great. But I think Matty Ice has something for y'all too, to remind you why HE is the MVP.