A very exciting divisional round yesterday. Mixed emotions for me, as I am a die-hard Cowboys fan and had them at +1500 before the season started to win the SB. I went 3-1, lost on SEA and won NE, PITT and GB. I bet those with the spread and Pitt ML, and hit a 6 team 6 point teaser (barely, had SEA +17 and they lost 36-20)
SO, what did I learn from that? It is that most of these games are going to go down to the wire when you have these HOF/All pro QBs. Irrespective of the injuries, they find a way to move the ball down field, score points (a lot of them), and keep the game close.
ATL/GB - Aaron Rodgers is on fire. They spread the Cowboys secondary and were able to pick them apart. But, so many intangibles come into play in this game. Will Nelson play? He serves as a great decoy, if nothing else. Will Bhaktiari play? He is vital in pass protection. Will the depleted secondary get any players back, because Micah Hyde can't cover all of the Falcon's receivers. A lot of uncertainties for GB. Still, the last time these two teams met, the Pack lost by one. So, anything above 4.5, IMHO is a gift. This game will come down to a single possession, and most likely whoever has the ball last will win the game. Rodgers will keep this game close, and hell be able to do so because the Atlanta defense just was not that impressive. They looked impressive going up against a make shift SEA offensive line. The best bet here is to tease the pack to 10.5, just to be safe as I see no way they lose by more than 3-4 if they lose at all.
NE/PITT - I usually never bet against NE. It is either on them or fade the game. Brady is on a mission, and they are at home. However, they looked shaky last week. They really weren't able to run the ball at all. Brady had two INTs, although you could argue that the receiver should have caught the pass. The pressure disrupted him on some plays and if it wasn't for the miracle deep passes that were caught by his receivers, the game would have ended with a much more narrow margin, especially if Will Fuller makes the TD catch and Oswieller doesn't turn the ball over 3 times. Big Ben isn't Osweiller, and he has a better running game and receivers at his disposal. Don't let the field goal festival in KC fool you, the Steelers can score points and pound the rock and if it is one weak spot in the Pats defense that makes them look mortal, it is that they've give up big runs in their closer, more contested games. I see this game coming down to a single possession as well. But can't quite put my finger on it. Gun to my head, I would say the patriots win, but it could be by 3, 6 or 14 depending on which Steelers offense and defense shows up. If I were to tease the game, I would wait for Pitt line to creep to 7 and tease this with the GB game.
However, a much safer bet, IMO, is the OVER on the Pats game. Both offenses are prolific. They both have the weapons to put up major points. If you look at the Pitt defense, although much improved, they were GASHED by Miami earlier in the season and I think the Pats will exploit the running game and then take shots down field against that Pitt secondary. Big Ben, La'veon, and AB will also get theirs and generate points against a NE defense that has looked vulnerable at times. So tease the over as I see a shootout in this game.
Play: GB + 10.5, NE/PIT O45 - max play