Still ugly^ but better than last week. I went 1-1 on props in week 3 for minus .3 units and adjusted that. Will try to write up my first 3 plays later, very busy today.
1. Titans -6(-115) *1.15/1 units
Placed the bet on Sunday night just missing -110 juice. Browns 5 starting QB's in 6 games. Think they miss Mack at center yet?
2. Ravens +3(-115) *1.15/1 units
All they need to do is call more run plays with the way this defense is playing, and having the best kicker in the league. Bye Bye Trestman.
3. Rams +3(+105) *1/1.05 units
Thinking about hitting this again for 1.5 units if we get a hook for -110. Maybe even a little on the ML. I think the Rams are -2 on a neutral field.
Still ugly^ but better than last week. I went 1-1 on props in week 3 for minus .3 units and adjusted that. Will try to write up my first 3 plays later, very busy today.
1. Titans -6(-115) *1.15/1 units
Placed the bet on Sunday night just missing -110 juice. Browns 5 starting QB's in 6 games. Think they miss Mack at center yet?
2. Ravens +3(-115) *1.15/1 units
All they need to do is call more run plays with the way this defense is playing, and having the best kicker in the league. Bye Bye Trestman.
3. Rams +3(+105) *1/1.05 units
Thinking about hitting this again for 1.5 units if we get a hook for -110. Maybe even a little on the ML. I think the Rams are -2 on a neutral field.
Tease Seattle down to a pk combined with the Jags getting 9 at Chicago. Jags coming off a bye playing a cruddy bears team, surely they can stay within single digits.
Tease Seattle down to a pk combined with the Jags getting 9 at Chicago. Jags coming off a bye playing a cruddy bears team, surely they can stay within single digits.
5. Philip Rivers UNDER 249.5 Yards(+110) *1.5/1.65 units
6. Philip Rivers OVER .5 INT(-170) *2/1.17 units
7. Chargers TT UNDER 20.5(-105) *1/.95 units
Wade Philips was the Chargers D coordinator from 2004 to 2006. Rivers rookie year in SD was 2004. Wade knows Rivers well. Rivers has faced Wade Philips as a D coordinator 3 times. Once with the Texans, twice w/ the Broncos. Here's the #'s...
Record 0-3
Chargers avg pts scored pg=17
Rivers avg comp%=53.23
Rivers avg yards pg=208.33
Rivers 6 TD's/3 INT's
The Broncos are ranked #2 vs the pass per dvoa
The Broncos D line is ranked #2 as pass rushers per dvoa(9.5% adj sack rate)
The Chargers O line is ranked #25 as pass blockers per dvoa(6.9% adj sack rate)
Rivers can't throw shot put against these cornerbacks, no way. I'll be damned if he don't throw at least one pic tonight. Orlando Franklin and Joe Barksdale are going to play but they are gimpy on short rest. The Denver pass rush is going to be scary imo.
5. Philip Rivers UNDER 249.5 Yards(+110) *1.5/1.65 units
6. Philip Rivers OVER .5 INT(-170) *2/1.17 units
7. Chargers TT UNDER 20.5(-105) *1/.95 units
Wade Philips was the Chargers D coordinator from 2004 to 2006. Rivers rookie year in SD was 2004. Wade knows Rivers well. Rivers has faced Wade Philips as a D coordinator 3 times. Once with the Texans, twice w/ the Broncos. Here's the #'s...
Record 0-3
Chargers avg pts scored pg=17
Rivers avg comp%=53.23
Rivers avg yards pg=208.33
Rivers 6 TD's/3 INT's
The Broncos are ranked #2 vs the pass per dvoa
The Broncos D line is ranked #2 as pass rushers per dvoa(9.5% adj sack rate)
The Chargers O line is ranked #25 as pass blockers per dvoa(6.9% adj sack rate)
Rivers can't throw shot put against these cornerbacks, no way. I'll be damned if he don't throw at least one pic tonight. Orlando Franklin and Joe Barksdale are going to play but they are gimpy on short rest. The Denver pass rush is going to be scary imo.
Saints off the bye at home. Sean Payton will have a good gameplan and many offensive sets to throw at Carolina. Look for the Saints to move fast and use some hurry up. Willie Snead is back to burn up the sideline. Both Panther starting cornerbacks are out.
The Panthers have a good run D, but I think the Saints will be putting them in Nickel and Dime quite often. A fresh Mark Ingram will take advantage.
Saints off the bye at home. Sean Payton will have a good gameplan and many offensive sets to throw at Carolina. Look for the Saints to move fast and use some hurry up. Willie Snead is back to burn up the sideline. Both Panther starting cornerbacks are out.
The Panthers have a good run D, but I think the Saints will be putting them in Nickel and Dime quite often. A fresh Mark Ingram will take advantage.
DVOA mismatch. Pass O vs Pass D, Rush O vs Rush D, Oline vs Dline...
Eagles played some damn good football in the 2nd half of the lions game. Today they clean up the penalties and take advantage of a injury ridden Redskin defense.
The Skins are horrible against the run. This should take pressure off of Wentz, PA pass will be effective.
DVOA mismatch. Pass O vs Pass D, Rush O vs Rush D, Oline vs Dline...
Eagles played some damn good football in the 2nd half of the lions game. Today they clean up the penalties and take advantage of a injury ridden Redskin defense.
The Skins are horrible against the run. This should take pressure off of Wentz, PA pass will be effective.
13. Todd Gurley OVER 79.5 rush yards(-115) *2/1.74 units
Haloti Ngata and Deandre Levy are out.
Lions Dline is ranked #30 by dvoa vs the run now they are with out their 3 technique...Rams despite being ranked #29 in rush offense, their oline is ranked #12 in run blocking. I think play calling and turnovers have them at a low rush rank.
Gurley beasted on them last year. They need to control the ball and win the time of possession battle.
That's it for noon, got a couple tasty props for afternoon games.
13. Todd Gurley OVER 79.5 rush yards(-115) *2/1.74 units
Haloti Ngata and Deandre Levy are out.
Lions Dline is ranked #30 by dvoa vs the run now they are with out their 3 technique...Rams despite being ranked #29 in rush offense, their oline is ranked #12 in run blocking. I think play calling and turnovers have them at a low rush rank.
Gurley beasted on them last year. They need to control the ball and win the time of possession battle.
That's it for noon, got a couple tasty props for afternoon games.
14. Jamal Charles OVER 49.5 rush yards(-115) *1.15/1 unit
I think the training wheels come off today. After a bye, plan on Andy Reid finding a way to get him involved early and often. The Raiders D line is the worst at stopping the run per dvoa.
My gut wants to hit this hard but that low total has got me second guessing. The books aren't sure of his usage is why the total is so low. I'm looking for him to get a minimum of 12 to 15 carries.
14. Jamal Charles OVER 49.5 rush yards(-115) *1.15/1 unit
I think the training wheels come off today. After a bye, plan on Andy Reid finding a way to get him involved early and often. The Raiders D line is the worst at stopping the run per dvoa.
My gut wants to hit this hard but that low total has got me second guessing. The books aren't sure of his usage is why the total is so low. I'm looking for him to get a minimum of 12 to 15 carries.
Green Bay 26th vs the TE. Dez Bryant doubtful so Dak will need a safety blanket. Best run offense vs the best run defense. Who wins that battle I'm not sure. The Cowboys might be playing from behind more than they are used to, so Dak should throw more. Give the kid props, no INT's yet.
You can find this prop at over 4 rec(-125) at other books. But I'm not playing to push on this one.
Green Bay 26th vs the TE. Dez Bryant doubtful so Dak will need a safety blanket. Best run offense vs the best run defense. Who wins that battle I'm not sure. The Cowboys might be playing from behind more than they are used to, so Dak should throw more. Give the kid props, no INT's yet.
You can find this prop at over 4 rec(-125) at other books. But I'm not playing to push on this one.
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