I would just like to again (per usual) thank you for your contribution on this issue, I was a little high on pain meds when I made the first post, I did not mean to be dismissive.
There are a couple of things I would like to point out here in regards to your comments on this matchup... Firstly, the Redskins O Line.
While much improved, and in many "group" statistics seemingly very capable, when reviewing their game tape, the LG (whether Long, Lauvao) and Lichtensteiger were absolutely horrendous. Many times, you see Scherff getting beat as well, which is supposed to be one of their bright spots.
This causes some key "pocket pushing pressure" moments that really wreak havoc on this Skins team. Let's not forget that for all of their secondary woes last year, the Steelers were adept at creating QB pressures both up the middle and from the edge.
The other thing that is noteworthy here is that Ryan Shazier is going to be able to be effective against Jordan Reed.. and Kirk Cousins is very dependent on Reed. The Redskins are going to have a tough two games vs. Dallas and Pittsburgh, and this is because of this exact matchup. The Redskins are not able to run the ball, and this hurts when you are playing a GOOD linebacker (or Safety in the case of the Cowboys who will likely put B. Jones on Reed). This lack of run game allows Shazier to focus solely on stopping Reed.
Another thing I think you're glancing over here is you offer a statistic as to Roethlisberger's record with and without Bell...
But that record goes back to before they had D'Angelo Williams. With Williams, you still have the threat of a run game. They almost beat the Seahawks without Bell. The game in Cincinnati they beat them without Bell AND without Williams. They were a couple of plays from beating Denver without Williams AND Bell. They DID beat the Broncos without Bell.
This team is explosive Offensively, have their LT returning from injury, their highly touted second round DB from Ole Miss returning (he missed all of 2015 with a torn labrum), and two very highly touted DBs coming in from the 2016 draft. Artie Burns is an underrated ball hawk, and Sean Davis is going to be a starter from day one.
The biggest thing that this young secondary is going to benefit from is a stout pass rush that the Steelers have put together, ending the year 3rd in sacks (and that is without the benefit of a good secondary).
The Redskins have some real Defensive deficiencies that aren't all going to be fixed by the arrival of Josh Norman. The problem is that if one wants to avoid Norman, they can. The Steelers could simply look towards Williams (matched up against the worst pass coverage Linebacking corps in the NFL), Marcus Wheaton or this year's best "breakout candidate", the ridiculously talented Sammie Coates.
On top of that... I don't believe there is a DB in this game that can beat Antonio Brown. Period. The dude is uncover able, Norman is going to get beat like a drum in that matchup. Breeland is not a shutdown man corner and will have trouble with Coates and Wheaton. Not to mention Ladarius Green is going to look like a star week one being matched up with those aforementioned Linebackers and the aging, broken down DeAngelo Hall.
I feel strongly that this is the right play. There are dogs that I love in week one, I love Detroit +4.5, I like San Diego, Chicago, San Francisco (I've come to think that Chip Kelly will make a big difference), but I don't like this Redskins team against the Steelers.
The first time I will play the Redskins will be week 3 against the Giants, whose woeful LB corps will be unable to put a cap on Reed, who is the spark plug of that Offense. Basically, the Redskins run WR screens, draws, and clear out routes by the WRs and slip it to Reed underneath and let him run. They are predictable, and were helped by an incredibly weak schedule last year. This year, they are getting the benefit of being a playoff team (only being +3) when really they should be getting the number of a 9-8 team and be +7.
The number isn't indicative of these two teams' strengths, I believe that the number is wrong.